Geelong vs Richmond Prediction

Cats Back Home, But Tigers Have Lost Their Roar

Home • $1.02

Away • $15.00

Saturday • GMHBA Stadium • Cloudy

Can a team that’s lost five straight actually be worth backing at $15? That’s the question punters are asking ahead of Geelong’s clash with Richmond at GMHBA Stadium this Saturday afternoon.

The Cats are coming off a home loss to Brisbane where they kicked an embarrassing 6.15, while the Tigers haven’t won since Round 11.

With the bookies installing Geelong as $1.02 favourites, there’s not much value in the head-to-head market – but that massive 59.5 point line has definitely caught my attention.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching the numbers, the standout bet here isn’t the obvious one.

Yes, Geelong should win, but at $1.02 they’re basically unbackable.

The real value lies in that hefty line – while Richmond have been terrible, they’ve lost by 60+ twice in their last five games.

I’m also keen on the unders given the weather forecast shows cloud cover, which should keep scoring in check.

BEST BET

Richmond +59.5

$1.88

BET NOW

VALUE BET

Richmond @ $15.00

$15.00

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

Geelong 1-39

$3.20

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Here’s where it gets interesting – our model loves Geelong, but not quite as much as the bookies do.

We’re predicting a 47-point win, which falls well short of that 59.5 point line the market’s offering.

The cloudy conditions at GMHBA should favour the home side’s contested style, but might also limit the final margin.

Our Data Says: Geelong 111, Richmond 64 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Geelong a 63.4% win chance, Richmond 36.6%

Bookmakers have Geelong at $1.02 (98% implied) vs Richmond at $15.00 (6.7% implied)

The Market Edge: Richmond +59.5 offers significant value – our 47-point margin prediction vs market’s 59.5 spread

Our Prediction

GEE 111 | RIC 64

Win Probability

GEE 63.4% | RIC 36.6%

Market Edge

Significant value

on Richmond

FORM LINE

Look, I know what you’re thinking – Richmond haven’t won in over a month, so why even consider them with the points?

But check their margins: losses by 3, 23, 44, 79 and 68.

That’s an average losing margin of 43.4 points, and remove that Adelaide outlier and it’s just 37.3.

Geelong’s form is actually more concerning despite sitting higher on the ladder.

They’ve won four of their last five, sure, but that Brisbane loss was ugly – 15 behinds, dominated in uncontested possessions, and their usually reliable defense leaked 14 goals from just 40 entries.

The Cats are scoring 14.5 goals per game at home this season, while Richmond manage just 9.1 on the road.

That 5.4 goal difference aligns nicely with our 47-point margin prediction.

Geelong Cats

WWWWL

Won four of their last five, but coming off home loss to Brisbane.

Richmond Tigers

LLLLL

Losses by 3, 23, 44, 79 and 68.

KEY STATS

The numbers paint a clear picture of contrasting fortunes, but they also hint at why this line might be too big.

Geelong average 14.5 goals per game (that’s 87 points before behinds), while Richmond manage just 9.1 goals (55 points).

The Cats dominate territory with 53.2 inside 50s per game versus Richmond’s 44.3 – that’s nearly 10 extra scoring opportunities.

But here’s the kicker: Richmond’s disposal efficiency at 72% actually edges Geelong’s 71.7%.

When you’re getting nearly 60 points start, that kind of ball use can keep things respectable.

The clearance battle will be crucial – Geelong average 38.3 to Richmond’s 33.8, and if the Cats dominate the coalface early, this could get ugly fast.

GOALS PER GAME

Geelong
14.5

Richmond
9.1

INSIDE 50s

Geelong
53.2

Richmond
44.3

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY (%)

Richmond
72

Geelong
71.7

CLEARANCES

Geelong
38.3

Richmond
33.8