AFL Betting Tips Round 6
Nine games across four days – and the model has…
Collingwood vs Hawthorn Prediction
Game 2 of Round 12 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 30 sees Collingwood vs Hawthorn at the MCG on Friday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7.
Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks Predictions
Friday, May 30, 2026
7:40 pm AEDT @ the MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Collingwood87 : 84
Win Percentages
Collingwood 54.57%
Hawthorn 45.43%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Collingwood Magpies set at $1.58, and $2.33 for the Hawthorn Hawks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
The bookies are leaning toward Collingwood here, with odds of $1.58 translating to a 59.59% implied chance of winning. Our prediction still has the Pies ahead, but by a narrower margin, 54.57%, which suggests the market might be slightly overconfident.
Hawthorn are paying $2.33, which gives them just a 40.41% implied chance. But our numbers rate them at 45.43%, meaning the Hawks are slightly underrated in the market.
That difference opens up a bit of value backing Hawthorn. If our model’s right, their true odds should be closer to $2.20. So the $2.33 being offered might be worth a look.
In what’s shaping up as a close game, the Hawks appear to be the value side. The bookies might be giving Collingwood a little too much credit here, making Hawthorn the smart play at the price.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Collingwood vs Hawthorn Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Collingwood by 0.5
- Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood by 8.8
- Power Rank: Collingwood by 2
- Average Winning Margin: Collingwood by 1.54
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn by 7
- Win Percentage: Collingwood by 18%
- Average Opponent Rank: Even
- Average Opponent Win %: Hawthorn by 11%
- Average Opponent Points For: Hawthorn by 4
- Highest Score For: Collingwood by 12
- Highest Score Against: Collingwood by 17
- Highest Total Match Score: Hawthorn by 25
- Lowest Total Match Score: Collingwood by 31
- Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn by 7
- Adjusted Points Against: Collingwood by 4
- True Power Score (Weighted): Collingwood by 2.2
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 162
- Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Collingwood: 5, Hawthorn: 5 – (Even)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Collingwood: 2.83, Hawthorn: 6.67 – (Collingwood by 3.84)
Over/Under Tempo: Moderate tempo expected; contested footy with periods of slow build-up and pressure-based turnovers.
Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel. Both sides have had inconsistent forward line output, expect a tight contest where efficiency and execution will determine the edge.
What to do?
Best bet is to take the UNDER 170.5 this game, even though the score prediction is coming in at 171 (0.5 higher than the OVER/UNDER) they are both solid team that should keep the oppositions scoring at bay bringing the total score below the anticipated.
As for multis, take the Hawthorn +8.5, UNDER 170.5, Collingwood 1-39 for $4.75 with Unibet as shown below.
Collingwood vs Hawthorn Betting Tips
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