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Carlton vs Geelong Prediction
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats Predictions
Game 8 of Round 7 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Carlton vs Geelong on April 27 at the MCG on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7.
Sunday, April 27, 2026
3:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Blues87 : 90
Cats 
Win Percentages
Carlton 43.94%
Geelong 56.06%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Carlton Blues set at $2.55, and $1.52 for the Geelong Cats, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookies have the Cats fairly short at $1.52, giving them a 62.65% chance of winning. But our model doesn’t see it quite that one-sided, we’ve got Geelong slightly ahead at 56.06%.
That opens the door for value on the Blues. The market’s only giving Carlton a 37.35% shot, but our numbers say they’ve got closer to a 44% chance of getting the job done.
That means Carlton should be priced around $2.28, but they’re sitting at $2.55 with Unibet, not huge, but definitely a worthwhile value play if you’re eyeing the underdog.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
- Overall Power Ranking: Carlton 3rd vs Geelong 5th
- Score Rank: Carlton 1st (home) vs Geelong 17th (away)
- Balanced Power Score: Carlton 8th vs Geelong 11th
- Points For Rank: Carlton 11th vs Geelong 5th
- Points Against Rank: Carlton 4th vs Geelong 9th
- Win % Rank: Carlton 14th vs Geelong 11th
- Total Power Rank Score: Blues 6.83 vs Cats 9.67
What to do?
Carlton actually come out ahead in the overall power score, and they’ve been elite at home when it comes to scoring. Geelong have been solid, but their away form raises some question marks.
The Cats deserve to be favourites, but not by the margin the odds suggest. Carlton are in with a real shout, and at $2.55, there’s definite value if you’re backing them to fire at home.
Take the Carlton +11.5 line.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Geelong by 10.8
- Average Points Against Per Match: Carlton by 5.5
- Power Rank: Geelong by 3
- Average Winning Margin: Geelong by 40.75
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Geelong by 11
- Win Percentage: Geelong by 33%
- Average Opponent Rank: Geelong by 3
- Average Opponent Win Percentage: Geelong by 19%
- Average Opponent Points For: Carlton by 6
- Highest Score For: Carlton by 6
- Highest Score Against: Carlton by 17
- Highest Total Match Score: Carlton by 5
- Lowest Total Match Score: Carlton by 22
- Adjusted Points For: Geelong by 11
- Adjusted Points Against: Carlton by 10
- True Power Score (Weighted): Geelong by 3.4
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 162.9
- Game Style Prediction: Shootout
Related:
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