Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Dolphins vs Eels Prediction
I am on the Dolphins to win and the Eels to cover, and there is no contradiction in that. I have this an eight point game and the market wants fifteen. Parramatta have already knocked over the Bulldogs, the Raiders, the Sea Eagles and the Cowboys this season, the last of them a week ago, so 14.5 is asking the Dolphins to do something to this side that better teams have not managed.
NRL Round 25 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
DOL
$1.21
Friday, August 21 • 8:00pm AEST
25 : 17
Suncorp Stadium
PAR
$4.45
Dolphins by 8 points
Model Predicted Margin
Dolphins by 8
Current Market
Dolphins -14.5
6.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HDolphins to win
$1.21
LINEEels +14.5
$1.82
TOTALUnder 50.5 points
$1.89
MULTIEels +14.5, Under 50.5 points & Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try
$5.37
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
Teams Are In: Max Plath Starts In The Second Row, Dylan Walker Is Out. The Bet Is Still The 14.5.
The Dolphins win this on defence, and a side that wins on defence does not hand you fifteen points. They hold sides to twenty two points a game, and Parramatta have spent the year refusing to be put away.
Fourteen and a half is the bet
The Dolphins are the better side and the win leg says so. But 14.5 asks them to bury a team that has spent the season refusing to be buried, and burying sides is not how they have got here. They win by keeping you out, not by running away with it. At $1.82 the Eels do not have to win anything, they just have to lose respectably, and that is a far easier job.
Suncorp is where this bet can go wrong
The Dolphins have won their past seven at Suncorp and that is the genuine case against me, so I am not hiding from it. I am not going to pretend every one of those seven was a tight one either. If this is the night they put a full eighty together, the line leg is gone by half time. What answers it for me is Parramatta taking down four decent sides already this year, the last of them a week ago. They are not turning up here cooked.
The Dolphins defence is the under
The defence is the best thing about this side, and Max Plath moving into the starting second row with Connelly Lemuelu out injured does not soften it. Parramatta are not a side that puts fifty on you by themselves, so 50.5 needs the Dolphins to do almost all of it, and I do not see them getting there.
Mitchell Moses is why they stay in touch
NRL.com made the point this week that if Mitchell Moses is given room, the Eels are capable of another scalp. Dylan Walker is out with a wrist injury and that does not change the read. Give him a quiet half of field position and Parramatta stay inside the 14.5 without ever needing to win the game.
Dolphins vs Eels Tip
Dolphins by 8 at Suncorp, their defence keeping this tight without Parramatta ever being put away.
Dolphins vs Eels Key Stats
POINTS AGAINST
DOL22
PAR29
This is the defence that has the Dolphins fourth, and it is the leg I am happiest with. Sides that win by keeping you out drag totals down with them, which is all the under 50.5 needs.
LINE BREAKS
DOL6
PAR4
The Dolphins get through more often and that is why they win it. But Parramatta are not a side that goes a full game without cutting you open, and you do not get fifteen clear of a team that keeps answering.
POINTS FOR
DOL28
PAR20
The Dolphins score well and Parramatta score enough. To cover this line the Dolphins have to keep piling on long after the game is decided, and that is not how they play.
Dolphins vs Eels Form Guide
The Dolphins
LWWWW
- R19: L 0-66 vs Sharks
- R20: W 36-16 vs Cowboys
- R22: W 28-22 vs Dragons
- R23: W 40-32 vs Broncos
- R24: W 22-0 vs Sea Eagles
Parramatta Eels
LLWLW
- R19: L 12-28 vs Roosters
- R21: L 18-24 vs Panthers
- R22: W 16-13 vs Wests Tigers
- R23: L 24-28 vs Rabbitohs
- R24: W 32-30 vs Cowboys
Ben’s Verdict
Dolphins to win, Eels to cover the 14.5, and the game to stay under 50.5. The risk is plain enough. This Dolphins side has been winning at Suncorp all season, and if they get twenty clear by half time there is no getting out of a multi. The line and the under both go at once, in the same ten minutes. That is the trade I am making at $5.37, and it is exactly why this gets one bet worth of money, not three.
Our Bets
H2H Dolphins to win$1.21
LINE Eels +14.5$1.82
TOTAL Under 50.5 points$1.89
MULTI Eels +14.5, Under 50.5 points & Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try$5.37
Player Prop Predictions
Tallyn Da Silva to score a try, $4.00. Two tries last start, and Tallyn Da Silva has now crossed in four of his last seven. Parramatta stay in this one long enough to get their chances, and $4.00 is a big price for a bloke in that touch.
Jordan Samrani to score a try, $3.25. Jordan Samrani has scored in each of his last three, so the form is as fresh as it gets. Parramatta never get put away here, which means plenty of ball down that end late.
Ronald Volkman to score a try, $3.70. Back to back tries has Ronald Volkman warm again after a quiet middle patch. An eight point game at Suncorp keeps Parramatta throwing at it, and I will take $3.70 on him being on the end of one.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to score a try, $1.67. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow put on a double two starts back and has scored in two of his last five. A side getting home by eight has to cross a few times, and he is one of the obvious ways it happens.
Jamayne Isaako to score a try, $1.56. Jamayne Isaako has a try in five of his last seven, the last two included, with a couple of doubles in that run. Short price for a reason, and I am happy to build through him.
The Props I Like
PROP Tallyn Da Silva Anytime Try$4.00
PROP Jordan Samrani Anytime Try$3.25
PROP Ronald Volkman Anytime Try$3.70
PROP Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try$1.67
PROP Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try$1.56
Player Props MultiJamayne Isaako Anytime Try, Tallyn Da Silva Anytime Try & Jordan Samrani Anytime Try, my price $20.28
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | The Dolphins vs Parramatta Eels |
| Date | Friday, August 21 |
| Kick-off | 8:00pm AEST |
| Venue | Suncorp Stadium |
| Final | NRL Round 25 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Eels +14.5, Under 50.5 points & Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try @ $5.37 |
| Predicted Score | The Dolphins 25 – Parramatta Eels 17 |
The Dolphins vs Parramatta Eels FAQs
Who will win Dolphins vs Eels?
The Dolphins. They are the better side and their defence is the best thing in this game. That gets them a win, not a fifteen point win, which is why the Eels and the points sit on my card at $1.82.
What is the best bet for Dolphins vs Eels?
My headline multi at $5.37 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try. On its own, Eels +14.5 at $1.82 is the anchor.
Will Dolphins vs Eels go over 50.5 points?
I do not think so. I have the game finishing around 42 points in total. The Dolphins defend well enough to hold this down and Parramatta are not a team that gets to fifty on their own. The under is at $1.89.
Who is The Dolphins playing next week?
The Dolphins play the Roosters - at Allianz Stadium on Saturday 29 August in NRL Round 26.
Who is Parramatta Eels playing next week?
The Eels play the Sharks - at CommBank Stadium on Sunday 30 August in NRL Round 26.
