Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Broncos vs Warriors Prediction
Teams are out and nothing in them moves my number. Adam Reynolds is still missing, Thomas Duffy keeps the seven and Brisbane name an unchanged starting side, with Reece Walsh and Ezra Mam both in it. That is the Broncos putting their best foot forward and it still leaves them sixteenth, facing a side chasing a top two finish, so seven and a half points is not much to ask of the visitors.
NRL Round 24 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
BRI
$2.87
Saturday, August 15 • 7:35pm AEST
15 : 26
Suncorp Stadium
WAR
$1.42
Warriors by 11 points
Model Predicted Margin
Warriors by 11
Current Market
Warriors -7.5
3.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HWarriors to win
$1.42
LINEWarriors -7.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 46.5 points
$1.90
MULTIWarriors Win, Under 46.5 points & Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try
$4.53
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Warriors Beat Brisbane By Thirty At Suncorp In Magic Round. Nothing Since Says That Gap Has Closed.
Reece Walsh at the back and Ezra Mam in the halves are the two who can win Brisbane a half on their own, and both are named. That is the risk in this bet and I am not pretending otherwise.
I just think they get about twenty minutes of it, and the rest of the night belongs to the Warriors.
They already did this to Brisbane at Suncorp
The Warriors won 42-12 when these two met at Suncorp Stadium earlier this season, and they have taken the last three meetings between the clubs. They have got better since, not worse. Last week they knocked over the Panthers, which tells you more about where this side is right now than anything from months ago.
Brisbane are not a bad side, they are a beaten one
Three losses on the bounce and sixteenth on the ladder, and none of that is about effort. They have the players to win a half. They have not looked like a side that wins a night. That is the honest case against laying seven and a half, and I still do not think it bridges the gap through the middle.
A home final is on the line for the Warriors
New Zealand sit within two points of Penrith and the Roosters, chasing a top two finish and a home final in the first week of September. That is a side with every reason to put the foot down on a team out of the race. It is why I am happy backing the margin rather than just the win.
The under is the second leg, not the main bet
A total of forty six and a half gets beaten when one side runs the night and the other never gets enough ball to matter, and that is the game I have in my head. But Brisbane were in a 72 point game last week, and if they get some early ball the under is gone well before the line is. So the line is the bet and the under comes along for the ride. Take it that way and Reece Walsh having a night does not cost you the whole ticket.
Broncos vs Warriors Tip
I have the Warriors winning by eleven on Saturday night, which clears a line of seven and a half with room to spare.
Broncos vs Warriors Key Stats
POINTS AGAINST
BRI27
WAR16
This bar is the whole case. Brisbane leak, New Zealand do not, and everything else in the game runs downhill from that.
LINE BREAKS
BRI4
WAR6
New Zealand do not need a long build to score. One loose Brisbane play and it is a try, and that is how a margin gets away from you before you have settled in.
POSSESSION %
BRI47
WAR52
Brisbane spend big chunks of these nights defending, and that is where their patience goes. It is the least interesting bar of the three, and it is the one that makes the other two hurt.
Broncos vs Warriors Form Guide
Brisbane Broncos
LWLLL
- R18: L 16-28 vs Sharks
- R20: W 14-12 vs Panthers
- R21: L 10-18 vs Cowboys
- R22: L 6-30 vs Knights
- R23: L 32-40 vs Dolphins
New Zealand Warriors
WWLWW
- R19: W 32-6 vs Wests Tigers
- R20: W 20-12 vs Dragons
- R21: L 6-18 vs Bulldogs
- R22: W 42-6 vs Titans
- R23: W 28-12 vs Panthers
Ben’s Verdict
Brisbane have talent and a home crowd, and if their spine gets going early this gets uncomfortable in a hurry. I still have the Warriors as the better side by a distance and they have already proved it against this opponent. Warriors on the line at $1.90 is where I am strongest, with the under as the optional extra. Prices are as at Saturday morning, so check before you bet.
Our Bets
H2H Warriors to win$1.42
LINE Warriors -7.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 46.5 points$1.90
MULTI Warriors Win, Under 46.5 points & Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try$4.53
Player Prop Predictions
Ezra Mam to score a try, $3.00. Three tries last start is the sort of game that rips a match apart, and he has now hit the market in two of his last four games. At $3.00 I am happy to be on him doing it again.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad to score a try, $2.75. He crossed last start to snap a quiet run and that gives him a try in three of his last seven games. I have New Zealand by eleven on Saturday night and a win that size usually comes with tries to spare, so $2.75 stacks up.
Chanel Harris-Tavita to score a try, $3.60. A try in each of his last three, which is the cleanest run of form on this page. Getting $3.60 for a bloke scoring every week in a side I have winning is where the value sits.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira to score a try, $1.68. A try in three of his last five games and he lines up in the side I have winning by eleven. Short at $1.68, and that is exactly what a steady leg is meant to look like.
Deine Mariner to score a try, $3.35. Back on the scoresheet last start after a few quiet weeks, and that is two of his last five games he has landed this. Brisbane will need points in a game I read as an eleven point beating, so $3.35 is fair.
The Props I Like
PROP Ezra Mam Anytime Try$3.00
PROP Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad Anytime Try$2.75
PROP Chanel Harris-Tavita Anytime Try$3.60
PROP Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try$1.68
PROP Deine Mariner Anytime Try$3.35
Player Props MultiAlofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try, Ezra Mam Anytime Try & Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad Anytime Try, my price $13.86
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors |
| Date | Saturday, August 15 |
| Kick-off | 7:35pm AEST |
| Venue | Suncorp Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 24 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Warriors Win, Under 46.5 points & Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try @ $4.53 |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Broncos 15 – New Zealand Warriors 26 |
Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors FAQs
Who will win Broncos vs Warriors?
The Warriors, and I think by plenty. I have them by eleven. They sit third and are chasing a top two finish, while the Broncos are sixteenth and have lost three in a row.
What is the best bet in Broncos vs Warriors?
My headline multi at $4.53 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Will Broncos vs Warriors be a high scoring game?
I do not think so. I have it at forty one points, under the forty six and a half the market wants. Brisbane have to chase this one and I do not back them to score enough to drag it over.
Who is Brisbane Broncos playing next week?
The Broncos play the Raiders - at GIO Stadium on Friday 21 August in NRL Round 25.
Who is New Zealand Warriors playing next week?
The Warriors play the Rabbitohs - at Accor Stadium on Saturday 22 August in NRL Round 25.
