Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Knights vs Titans Prediction
Newcastle are winning again and the handicap has run away with itself. Twelve and a half is the widest line of the round, and the losses in this run came by two, two and one. One blowout in Brisbane is doing all the heavy lifting for that number. The Titans get the points.
NRL Round 24 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
NEW
$1.24
Sunday, August 16 • 2:00pm AEST
22 : 16
McDonald Jones Stadium
GLD
$4.10
Knights by 6 points
Model Predicted Margin
Knights by 6
Current Market
Knights -12.5
6.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HKnights to win
$1.24
LINETitans +12.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 50.5 points
$1.90
MULTITitans +12.5, Under 50.5 points & Kalyn Ponga Anytime Try
$7.65
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Knights Have Won Two Straight. Twelve And A Half Points Is Still Too Many To Lay On Them.
I have got the Knights winning this and I still will not lay that many points. That is the whole trade: back Newcastle to be the better side, back the Gold Coast to keep it respectable. Twelve and a half is two converted tries and change. Newcastle have got there once in this run, in Brisbane, and they are not built to do it again.
Newcastle win tight, not wide
Last week against the Raiders they were behind, had to grind their way back, then hang on. That is the pattern. This is a side that wins narrow, on pressure and field position rather than scoreboard bursts, and it has been enough to keep the run going. The handicap asks them to be a different team on Sunday.
Phoenix Crossland comes back in, Bradman Best does not
Phoenix Crossland is back on deck for Sunday after missing the Canberra win with a calf injury, and Pasami Saulo returns from a foot problem. Bradman Best was named to come back with him but has dropped out of the side, and Fletcher Hunt is named in the centres. That still firms up the win leg, and that is all it does. A fuller team sheet has never been the same thing as a bigger margin.
The Titans have been flattened two weeks running
Six points one week, eight the next, and that is the honest case against taking the points. What holds me is that this fixture has never followed the ladder. The Titans won both meetings in 2025, one of them right here at McDonald Jones, and while Newcastle squared it up by plenty last time, the record between these two is far closer than this handicap implies.
The market wants fifty one points
Four of the last five Newcastle games finished under fifty and a half. The Gold Coast leak, but leaking is not scoring, and a Titans side putting up what they have put up the last fortnight is not the one that blows a total apart. Newcastle grinding field position gets them in front; it does not get the scoreboard moving in a hurry. I have this one in the high thirties. The under is the quietest bet here and probably the safest.
Knights vs Titans Tip
The lists are in and Newcastle are near enough to the side they want. I still have them winning by six.
Knights vs Titans Key Stats
KICK RETURN METRES
NEW158
GLD136
Newcastle start their sets further upfield and squeeze teams from there. That edge wins them games. It has never been the sort of edge that wins them a game by twelve and a half.
POINTS AGAINST
NEW23
GLD27
The Gold Coast leak, and that is the fair case against the Titans here. It is nowhere near the sort of leak you need before you lay this many points on anyone.
ERRORS
NEW12
GLD13
Neither side is gifting the other cheap possession, and a game without cheap possession is a game that stays tight. That is how the Titans hang around long enough to cover.
Knights vs Titans Form Guide
Newcastle Knights
LLLWW
- R19: L 24-26 vs Rabbitohs
- R20: L 18-20 vs Sharks
- R21: L 22-23 vs Roosters
- R22: W 30-6 vs Broncos
- R23: W 30-24 vs Raiders
Gold Coast Titans
LWWLL
- R19: L 18-22 vs Storm
- R20: W 38-32 vs Sea Eagles
- R21: W 38-18 vs Dragons
- R22: L 6-42 vs Warriors
- R23: L 8-30 vs Cowboys
Ben’s Verdict
Knights to win, Titans to cover, total to stay modest. Titans plus 12.5 on its own at $1.90 is the safe play and I would not talk anyone out of taking it that way. The multi at $7.65 is the value play, and it stacks because the three legs are not three opinions, they are one: Newcastle are better, Newcastle do not get away, and nobody gets near fifty one points. The risk is Newcastle producing the sort of afternoon they had in Brisbane, in which case the handicap never gets tested.
Our Bets
H2H Knights to win$1.24
LINE Titans +12.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 50.5 points$1.90
MULTI Titans +12.5, Under 50.5 points & Kalyn Ponga Anytime Try$7.65
Player Prop Predictions
Dominic Young to score a try, $1.53. Two last start, and that is the third game running he has found the line. A try in four of his last seven, and at $1.53 he is the shortest price on the board.
Phillip Sami to score a try, $2.07. He doubled up last start and there is a three sitting in that run too. Phillip Sami scores in bunches, so a try in four of his last seven at $2.07 is worth taking on.
Kalyn Ponga to score a try, $2.12. Crossed again last start and he has a try in three of his last five. Newcastle are the better side here and I have them winning by six, so $2.12 is a steady leg to build the multi around.
The Props I Like
PROP Dominic Young Anytime Try$1.53
PROP Phillip Sami Anytime Try$2.07
PROP Kalyn Ponga Anytime Try$2.12
Player Props MultiKalyn Ponga Anytime Try, Dominic Young Anytime Try & Phillip Sami Anytime Try, my price $6.71
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans |
| Date | Sunday, August 16 |
| Kick-off | 2:00pm AEST |
| Venue | McDonald Jones Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 24 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Titans +12.5, Under 50.5 points & Kalyn Ponga Anytime Try @ $7.65 |
| Predicted Score | Newcastle Knights 22 – Gold Coast Titans 16 |
Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans FAQs
Who will win Knights vs Titans?
I am tipping the Knights by six. Newcastle are winning again and they are strong at McDonald Jones Stadium, but six points and twelve and a half are two very different bets.
What is the best bet in Knights vs Titans?
My headline multi at $7.65 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Kalyn Ponga Anytime Try. On its own, Titans +12.5 at $1.90 is the anchor.
Can the Titans cover the 12.5 point line?
I think so. I have the margin at six, and Newcastle have been living in one score games right through this run. The Titans at plus 12.5 for $1.90 is where the value sits.
Why not just back the Titans +12.5 on its own?
You can, and at $1.90 it is the safe play. The multi is the value play at $7.65. The other two legs are not extra opinions bolted on, they are the same read: Newcastle are the better side, and this stays a tight, low scoring afternoon.
What kills this bet?
Newcastle having the sort of afternoon they had in Brisbane. If they get on top early and the Titans fold the way they have the last fortnight, the handicap never gets tested and the total goes with it.
Who is Newcastle Knights playing next week?
The Knights play the Sea Eagles - at McDonald Jones Stadium on Saturday 22 August in NRL Round 25.
Who is Gold Coast Titans playing next week?
The Titans play the Sharks - at Cbus Super Stadium on Sunday 23 August in NRL Round 25.
