Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Panthers vs Roosters Prediction
The Roosters have won seven on the trot and the bookies still have them as the outsiders tonight. I am not going to argue with that. But there is a big difference between the Panthers winning this and the Panthers winning it by five, and that gap is the whole bet.
NRL Round 24 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
PEN
$1.55
Thursday, August 13 • 7:50pm AEST
22 : 18
CommBank Stadium
SYD
$2.46
Panthers by 4 points
Model Predicted Margin
Panthers by 4
Current Market
Panthers -4.5
0.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HPanthers to win
$1.55
LINERoosters +4.5
$1.87
TOTALUnder 41.5 points
$2.00
MULTIPanthers Win, Under 41.5 points & Robert Toia Anytime Try
$10.23
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
I Have Penrith Winning This And Not Covering It. The Roosters And The Four And A Half Is The Bet.
There is barely a point between my number and the market’s here, and that is exactly the situation where I would rather have the points than the favourite. Penrith win this more often than not. They just do not win it by five often enough to lay that price.
Penrith win this with their defence
Strip out the form lines and the noise and this is the tighter of the two defences by a distance. The Roosters have been scoring freely on their run, but the one night they ran into a defence with real teeth they won 14-6. That is the version of this game I am expecting.
The team sheets did not move my number
Cody Ramsey comes in at fullback for the Roosters with James Tedesco not getting up from an ankle injury. That is the change of note in this one and it does not shift my four points. Everything else on the sheets landed the way I had it when I set the line.
Four and a half is too much to lay with this Penrith side
This is the leg I actually want. Penrith have lost four of their past seven and they are a month without Isaah Yeo, who is out with a pectoral injury. A side in that shape can absolutely win a tight one against a good team, but winning it by five is a different ask, and I am not paying for it.
The one time these two met at CommBank, the Roosters won
I have to be honest about the history here, because it is ugly reading for my line bet. Penrith have won five of the last six against the Roosters, including 40-4 back in March. But those wins came at Allianz and out at Penrith. The single meeting played at this ground went the other way, 38-32 to the Roosters.
The under is the leg I am least sure of
Both of these sides can put points on, so I am not going to oversell it. My number lands on 40 against a market total of 41.5, which is about as close as these ever get. It is a small one for me, not the play.
Panthers vs Roosters Tip
Roosters +4.5 at $1.87. I make it Panthers by four, and four does not cover four and a half.
Panthers vs Roosters Key Stats
POINTS AGAINST
PEN15
SYD20
This is why I have Penrith winning and why I am on the under. It is also why I do not have them running away with it.
LINE BREAKS
PEN6
SYD5
This one argues against my under and I am not going to pretend otherwise. If two of those turn into tries early, my four points is gone.
KICK RETURN METRES
PEN195
SYD212
The Roosters start their sets further up the field. That is field position Penrith have to defend instead of attack from, and it is how an outsider keeps a game inside four and a half.
Panthers vs Roosters Form Guide
Penrith Panthers
WLWWL
- R18: W 36-14 vs Rabbitohs
- R20: L 12-14 vs Broncos
- R21: W 24-18 vs Eels
- R22: W 42-18 vs Raiders
- R23: L 12-28 vs Warriors
Sydney Roosters
WWWWW
- R19: W 28-12 vs Eels
- R20: W 14-6 vs Storm
- R21: W 23-22 vs Knights
- R22: W 82-12 vs Cowboys
- R23: W 20-18 vs Bulldogs
Ben’s Verdict
Penrith are the better side across a season and $1.55 to win it is fair enough. Laying four and a half points with this version of them is a different proposition though, so the Roosters and the points is where my money goes. The risk is obvious: if the Penrith side that put 40-4 on them back in March turns up here, this is over by half time and the line never comes into it.
Our Bets
H2H Panthers to win$1.55
LINE Roosters +4.5$1.87
TOTAL Under 41.5 points$2.00
MULTI Panthers Win, Under 41.5 points & Robert Toia Anytime Try$10.23
Player Prop Predictions
Liam Martin to score a try, $3.80. He bagged a double two starts back and has crossed in three of his last six, so the tryscoring is already in his legs. I make this one four points either way, and in a scrap like that $3.80 is a good price for a bloke who keeps turning up.
Thomas Jenkins to score two or more tries, $3.35. This is a bloke who scores in bunches: a hat trick and a pair of doubles inside seven games, with two or more landing in three of them. Back him to go again and $3.35 looks generous for the shape of his form.
Liam Henry to score a try, $9.25. A try in three of his last seven, and they want $9.25 about it. That is the price of a player nobody has bothered to watch, and in a match I expect to stay tight he only needs one.
Robert Toia to score a try, $3.30. Four of his last six games have brought a try, which is the best strike rate on this page by a fair way. With Penrith and the Roosters inside a converted try on my numbers, Sydney will be throwing plenty at the line, and $3.30 is the steady leg my multi is built on.
The Props I Like
PROP Liam Martin Anytime Try$3.80
PROP Thomas Jenkins 2+ Tries$3.35
PROP Liam Henry Anytime Try$9.25
PROP Robert Toia Anytime Try$3.30
Player Props MultiRobert Toia Anytime Try, Liam Martin Anytime Try & Thomas Jenkins 2+ Tries, my price $42.01
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters |
| Date | Thursday, August 13 |
| Kick-off | 7:50pm AEST |
| Venue | CommBank Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 24 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Panthers Win, Under 41.5 points & Robert Toia Anytime Try @ $10.23 |
| Predicted Score | Penrith Panthers 22 – Sydney Roosters 18 |
Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters FAQs
Who will win Panthers vs Roosters?
I have got the Panthers winning it, by about four points. Penrith at $1.55 is the play in the head to head. Four is not five though, which is why my line bet goes the other way.
What is the best bet in Panthers vs Roosters?
My headline multi at $10.23 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Robert Toia Anytime Try. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Will Panthers vs Roosters be a high scoring game?
I do not think so, though it is the tightest of my three legs. I have the game landing around 40 points against a market total of 41.5, so the under at $2.00 gets a bit of my money rather than a lot of it.
Who is Penrith Panthers playing next week?
The Panthers play the Storm - at AAMI Park on Thursday 20 August in NRL Round 25.
Who is Sydney Roosters playing next week?
The Roosters play the Wests Tigers - at Allianz Stadium on Sunday 23 August in NRL Round 25.
