Essendon vs Collingwood Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026 Model Predicted – Final Score…
Richmond vs Melbourne Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
Melbourne by 26 points
Model Predicted Margin
Melbourne by 26
Current Market
Richmond +38.5
12.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: Richmond Tigers +38.5 @ $1.90
Our model has Melbourne winning by 26 – the 38.5-point line gives Richmond over a goal of extra cover.
Odds correct at time of posting
Tigers vs Dees Prediction: 12 Points of Cushion on This Line
Melbourne have beaten Richmond in three straight, including that abandoned preseason hit in Ballarat where they were 35 up when the lightning rolled in. The Dees own this matchup and everyone knows it.
But the market’s priced this like Richmond are about to cop another 70-point belting. They’re not. Yes, the Tigers are 0-6 and leaking points, but four of those losses came against top-eight sides and their attack-versus-defence numbers actually push our model toward Richmond covering. The books have Melbourne by 38.5. Our model says 26. That’s a dozen points of daylight.
Melbourne’s ruck dominance is the engine – nearly double Richmond’s hit-out output – and they’re generating far more inside 50s. That wins them the game. But it doesn’t win them the game by 40.
The risk is Richmond’s fragility. They’ve been blown out in four of six, and if the Dees get on top at centre bounces early, confidence evaporates fast. A 50-point loss isn’t impossible with this group.
Still, 38.5 is generous for a side that only lost by 20 and 42 in their two closest defeats. The line’s too fat. Take the points.
Tigers vs Dees Tip
Melbourne win by around 26 points but the books are offering 38.5, giving Richmond backers a comfortable buffer they shouldn’t need.
Tigers vs Dees Key Stats
INSIDE 50S
RICH48
MELB57
Melbourne generate nearly nine more entries per game – this is how they control scoreboard pressure.
HIT-OUTS
RICH22
MELB44
Melbourne’s ruck dominance feeds their clearance and inside 50 advantage – it’s the engine of their game.
GOALS PER GAME
RICH8
MELB14
Melbourne’s scoring output is elite but Richmond’s eight goals per game means they can keep a margin within range.
Tigers vs Dees Form Guide
Richmond Tigers
LLLLL
- L 55-130 vs North Melbourne
- L 75-131 vs GWS Giants
- L 48-90 vs Port Adelaide
- L 43-103 vs Fremantle
- L 60-128 vs Gold Coast Suns
Melbourne Demons
WLWWL
- W 104-102 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 68-113 vs Essendon
- W 109-89 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 100-77 vs Carlton
- L 70-118 vs Fremantle
Final Verdict
Melbourne win this comfortably but the bookmakers have overcorrected on Richmond’s horror run. Twelve points of model edge on a line bet is worth your time.
LOCK IT IN: Richmond +38.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Richmond Tigers vs Melbourne Demons |
| Date | Friday, April 24 |
| Venue | MCG |
| Our Tip | Richmond +38.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Richmond Tigers 63 – Melbourne Demons 89 |
Richmond Tigers vs Melbourne Demons FAQs
Who will win Richmond vs Melbourne?
Melbourne are expected to win comfortably. Our model predicts Melbourne by 26 points. The Demons have won three straight against Richmond and sit 8th on the ladder while the Tigers are winless in 2026.
What are the best bets for Richmond vs Melbourne Round 7?
The best value is Richmond +38.5 at $1.90. Our model has Melbourne winning by 26, which means the line offers 12.5 points of extra cushion. The market has overcorrected for Richmond’s poor season.
What is the predicted score for Richmond vs Melbourne?
Our model predicts Richmond 63 to Melbourne 89, a 26-point Melbourne win. That’s well inside the 38.5-point line the bookmakers are offering, making Richmond the value play on the spread.
