Essendon vs Collingwood Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026 Model Predicted – Final Score…
Hawthorn vs Gold Coast Tips & Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
Hawthorn by 14 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn by 14
Current Market
Hawthorn -8.5
5.5 pts edge
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: Hawthorn Hawks -8.5 @ $1.89
Our model has Hawthorn by 14, giving over five points of value on the line.
Odds correct at time of posting
Hawks vs Suns Prediction: Launceston Is a Fortress
Gold Coast have won the last three meetings, including a 53-point belting and a 67-point demolition. Both on the Gold Coast. This one’s in Launceston, and that changes everything.
Hawthorn are a different beast at UTAS. Five wins on the bounce, grinding out tight ones against quality opposition. The Hawks win the ball at the coalface – clearances, contested marks, tackles inside 50. That’s the profile of a team that controls tempo in cold, tight conditions.
The Suns score plenty but they’re leaky. Their last five form reads like a rollercoaster – belting Richmond one week, getting towelled by Melbourne and Sydney the next. That inconsistency is the gap the books haven’t fully priced.
The risk is Gold Coast’s forward line. They kick more goals per game and if they get clean entries they’ll hurt. An open, high-scoring affair suits them more than Hawthorn.
But this won’t be open. Launceston in late April, Hawthorn dictating the stoppages, and a model margin of 14 against a market line of 8.5. That’s five and a half points of value sitting there.
Hawks vs Suns Tip
Hawthorn by 14 – five straight wins, home ground edge, and a contested ball advantage Gold Coast can’t match on the road.
Hawks vs Suns Key Stats
CLEARANCES
HAW37
GCFC33
Hawthorn’s clearance edge fuels their ability to control tempo in tight Launceston conditions.
CONTESTED MARKS
HAW12
GCFC7
The Hawks win the ball in the air at nearly 60% more – critical for maintaining forward pressure.
TACKLES INSIDE 50
HAW13
GCFC10
Hawthorn’s forward-line pressure creates turnovers and repeat scoring chances Gold Coast can’t match.
Hawks vs Suns Form Guide
Hawthorn Hawks
WWWWW
- W 89-86 vs Port Adelaide
- W 104-64 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 92-91 vs Geelong Cats
- W 99-82 vs Sydney Swans
- W 145-83 vs Essendon
Gold Coast Suns
WLLWW
- W 119-110 vs Essendon
- L 68-100 vs Sydney Swans
- L 89-109 vs Melbourne
- W 128-60 vs Richmond
- W 131-72 vs West Coast Eagles
Final Verdict
The Suns have owned recent history but they haven’t played this Hawthorn side on their home deck in form like this. Back the Hawks to cover.
LOCK IT IN: Hawthorn -8.5 @ $1.89
Key Facts
| Match | Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns |
| Date | Saturday, April 25 |
| Venue | UTAS Stadium |
| Our Tip | Hawthorn -8.5 @ $1.89 |
| Predicted Score | Hawthorn Hawks 113 – Gold Coast Suns 99 |
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns FAQs
Who will win Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast SUNS?
Our model predicts Hawthorn Hawks to win by 14 points at UTAS Stadium. The Hawks have won five straight games and hold significant advantages in clearances and contested marks over Gold Coast.
What is the predicted score for Hawthorn vs Gold Coast Round 7?
Our model predicts Hawthorn 113 to Gold Coast 99. Hawthorn’s home ground advantage and contested ball dominance underpin the 14-point margin.
What are the best bets for Hawthorn vs Gold Coast SUNS?
Our best bet is Hawthorn -8.5 at $1.89. The model margin of 14 points gives over five points of value against the market line of 8.5, backed by Hawthorn’s dominant home form and clearance advantage.
