Hawthorn vs Gold Coast Tips & Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026 Model Predicted – Final Score…
Essendon vs Collingwood Prediction – Round 7 2026
AFL Round 7 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
ESS
$3.07
Saturday, April 25
74 : 91
MCG
COLL
$1.38
Collingwood by 17 points
Model Predicted Margin
Collingwood by 17
Current Market
Essendon +17.5
0.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Collingwood Magpies H2H @ $1.38
Our model has Collingwood by 17 – the line is 17.5, giving us value on the Bombers to cover.
Value BetLINE BETTING
Essendon Bombers +17.5 @ $1.90
Odds correct at time of posting
Bombers vs Pies Prediction: Anzac Day Value on the Underdog
Anzac Day at the MCG. Collingwood smashed Essendon by 41 in this fixture last year, and the Bombers have won just once from six this season. On paper, this looks ugly.
But the market and our model are saying the same thing – Collingwood by 17. The line is 17.5. That half-point matters. Essendon’s centre clearance work is elite – best in the comp – and in a game where stoppages pile up under the MCG spotlight, that keeps them in touch long enough to stay within the number.
Collingwood’s tackles inside 50 are the concern for Essendon backers. The Pies apply relentless forward-half pressure and that’s where games blow out. If Essendon’s turnover issues – worst in the comp – gift entries to that forward press, 17 won’t be enough.
The risk is real. But Anzac Day games are tight by nature. Atmosphere, occasion, rivalry – these things compress margins. Four of the last six Anzac Day clashes have been decided by under three goals.
Our model says 17. The books say 17.5. Take the half-point gift and back the Bombers to keep it close.
Bombers vs Pies Tip
Collingwood win the Anzac Day blockbuster, but Essendon’s 17.5-point start is enough to cover at the MCG.
Bombers vs Pies Key Stats
INSIDE 50S
ESS47
COLL52
Collingwood generate more forward entries, but Essendon convert at a far higher rate – keeping scoreboard pressure alive.
CENTRE CLEARANCES
ESS13
COLL10
Essendon’s midfield wins first use from the centre – their best path to staying in the contest.
TACKLES INSIDE 50
ESS8
COLL13
Collingwood’s forward pressure is suffocating and the biggest threat to Essendon covering the line.
Bombers vs Pies Form Guide
Essendon Bombers
LWLLL
- L 110-119 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 113-68 vs Melbourne
- L 65-99 vs Western Bulldogs
- L 69-81 vs North Melbourne
- L 70-133 vs Port Adelaide
Collingwood Magpies
WLLWL
- W 88-83 vs Carlton
- L 39-45 vs Fremantle
- L 65-119 vs Brisbane Lions
- W 87-54 vs GWS Giants
- L 79-93 vs Adelaide Crows
Final Verdict
Collingwood win the day, but Essendon cover. The line’s a coin flip and we’re taking the free half-point.
LOCK IT IN: Essendon +17.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies |
| Date | Saturday, April 25 |
| Venue | MCG |
| Our Tip | Essendon +17.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Essendon Bombers 74 – Collingwood Magpies 91 |
Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies FAQs
Who will win Essendon vs Collingwood?
Our model predicts Collingwood to win by 17 points. The Magpies have superior form with three wins from six compared to Essendon’s one from six, and they won this fixture by 41 points last year.
What are the best bets for Essendon vs Collingwood Anzac Day?
Our recommended bet is Essendon +17.5 at $1.90. The model margin of 17 points sits just inside the market line of 17.5, giving a half-point of value on the Bombers to cover.
What is the predicted score for Essendon vs Collingwood Round 7?
Our model predicts Collingwood 91 to Essendon 74, a 17-point Magpies victory. This aligns closely with the market line of 17.5 points.
