2025 NRL Clive Churchill Medal: Where the Smart Money Goes
I’ve been tracking the Clive Churchill Medal for years, and after crunching 40 years of data on past winners, I reckon I’ve found where the value is for the 2025 Grand Final. Melbourne Storm versus Brisbane Broncos – and the current odds are telling me the bookies haven’t done their homework properly.
Here’s the thing – I’m not picking the winner of the game here. That’s your call. But once you’ve decided who you reckon will lift the trophy, I’ll show you exactly where the medal value is.
If You’re Backing Melbourne Storm
Best Bet: Harry Grant
Joint favourite with Munster and Haas, but Grant’s profile destroys them both. The 27-year-old captain ticks every box in my framework.
Peak age, Origin and Test experience, plays hooker (spine position), and averages 40+ tackles per game.
What separates Grant from Munster at the same price? Age (27 vs 31) and archetype fusion – 725 tackles this season plus 10 try assists and 12 line break assists. That’s workhorse meets game-breaker.
Value Play: Ryan Papenhuyzen
Now we’re talking value. Paps at $12 when he’s already won this medal in 2020?
After playing through that shoulder injury in the prelim, he’s got the “courage of Clive” narrative locked in.
His 15 tries and 11 line breaks this season prove he’s still that game-breaker who delivers iconic moments.
Long Shot: Trent Loiero
Look at these odds! Leading the Storm with 845 tackles at 96.1% efficiency, fits the age profile at 24, has Origin experience.
If Melbourne win through defence, Loiero at $61 is the smartest punt on the board.
If You’re Backing Brisbane Broncos
Best Bet: Patrick Carrigan
The bookies have missed something here. Carrigan’s profile is bulletproof – he’s 27, a Wally Lewis Medallist, leads Brisbane with 875 tackles.
His suspension return narrative is gold for the judges. At $18, this is genuine value for someone who fits the historical winner’s profile perfectly.
Value Play: Reece Walsh
Just behind the favourites and there’s good reason.
The 23-year-old carries the biggest redemption story after 2023’s heartbreak.
With 13 tries and 23 try assists, he’s got the stats. But here’s my take – at $7, I’d rather take Carrigan at $18 for better value with similar winning chances if Brisbane get up.
Long Shot: Ezra Mam
Remember his hat-trick in the 2023 Grand Final?
At 22 he’s slightly young, but if Brisbane win big, Mam could explode again.
Better odds than I expected for someone who’s proven he can light up this stage.
The Odds That Don’t Make Sense
Let me tell you what’s wrong with this market:
Payne Haas at $6.50? Joint favourite? Props have won it just three times in 40 years. That’s 7.7% of medals. These odds imply about 15% chance. Terrible value – this is how bookies make their money.
Jahrome Hughes at $7.00 is tempting, but at 30 he’s outside that prime 23-27 age window where 88% of winners come from. Good player, wrong demographic for this award.
Adam Reynolds $13.00 and Ben Hunt $17.00? Both are 35 years old. In the NRL era, 88% of winners have been aged 23-27. These veteran halves are donation bets, no matter how important they are to their teams.
Cameron Munster at $6.50 – Joint favourite but at 31, he’s outside that prime age window. His 23 try assists say he could do it, but Harry Grant at the same price offers better demographic fit.
The wingers and centres – Kotoni Staggs ($21.00), Xavier Coates ($26.00), Will Warbrick ($51.00)? Zero centres or wingers have won in the modern era. Not one. These are sucker bets.
How the Pros Are Playing It
Based on where I see value:
If you fancy Melbourne:
- Main play on Harry Grant at $6.50
- Value play on Papenhuyzen at $12.00
- Cheeky punt on Loiero at $61.00
If you fancy Brisbane:
- Main play on Carrigan at $18.00
- Consider Walsh at $7.00 if you want near-favourite odds
- Small stake on Mam at $26.00 for the chaos scenario
Why These Picks Work
Since using this framework, I’ve picked 7 of the last 10 medallists, including Liam Martin at $9 last year when everyone was on Cleary. The patterns are rock solid:
- 90% come from the winning team (so pick your winner first)
- 70% play spine positions or lock
- 88% are aged 23-27
- 92% have rep experience
The current market has three joint favourites at $6.50 – Munster, Grant and Haas. But only Grant fits the age profile. Haas being an equal favourite as a prop is laughable based on history. For Brisbane, Walsh at $7.00 is their best market option, but Carrigan at $18.00 offers over twice the value with a similar chance based on historical data.
The Bottom Line
Pick your Grand Final winner first. Then:
- Storm backers: Harry Grant’s your best bet at $6.50, Papenhuyzen at $12.00 is your value
- Broncos backers: Patrick Carrigan at $18.00 is the gift the bookies are giving you
Avoid the veteran halves despite their importance to their teams. Skip the outside backs completely. And definitely don’t touch Payne Haas at $6.50 – props at joint-favourite odds are how bookies buy their boats.
Winners are grinners, and at these odds, backing the players who actually fit the historical profile is how you’ll be grinning come Sunday night.
