West Coast vs Carlton Prediction

Game 7 of Round 14 of the 2025 AFL Premiership on June 15 features the West Coast Eagles vs Carlton Blues at Optus Stadium on Sunday evening. Get the latest AFL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

West Coast Eagles vs Carlton Blues Predictions

Sunday, June 15, 2025

6:10pm @ Optus Stadium, Perth

Final Score Prediction

Eagles

71 : 75

Blues

Sunday evening in Perth delivers yet another extraordinary betting opportunity that could rival our earlier value picks of the round.

While Carlton are installed as massive favourites, our analysis reveals what might be the most mispriced line of the entire weekend.

Win Percentages

Eagles
39.74%

Blues
60.26%

The Market Check

The bookies have Carlton as overwhelming favourites at $1.22, creating another massively lopsided betting market that appears to defy our statistical analysis.

Our model suggests a 4-point game, yet the market is pricing this as if Carlton should win by 4+ goals – an extraordinary disconnect.

Eagles

Blues

Why Carlton Should Win

The Blues have been superior across most statistical categories, showing better attacking output and significantly stronger defensive structures. Their power ranking advantage is substantial, and they’ve demonstrated more consistency throughout the season.

Carlton’s recent form suggests they should be favourites for this clash.

The Eagles’ Massive Value Case

If there’s ever been a case for backing a massive underdog, this might top them all. Our analysis has West Coast losing by just 4 points, yet they’re getting a 25.5-point head start.

The market appears to have completely written off the Eagles, creating what could be the value bet of the entire season.

Head-to-Head Analysis

The numbers reveal another stunning market mispricing:

Attack: Carlton averaging 12 points more per game
Defence: Blues conceding 27 points less per game
Power Rankings: Carlton significantly higher
Predicted Margin: Just 4 points to Carlton
Market Line: 25.5 points – a staggering 21.5-point difference!

Game Style Prediction: Likely blowout with low scoring, but our model suggests much closer than market believes.

Expected Total: Around 146 points – another defensive struggle expected

Our Betting Strategy

Safe Play: Blues to Win

Blues @ $1.22

Minimal return but Carlton should get the job done. Perfect for large multi-bets requiring absolute certainty.

MEGA VALUE: Eagles +25.5

West Coast +25.5 @ $1.88

This could be the value bet of the season! Our 4-point predicted margin versus a 25.5-point line represents one of the biggest market mispricings we’ve ever seen. Even if Carlton win, they’re extremely unlikely to do so by 4+ goals.

Strong Value: Under 167.5

Under 167.5 @ $1.88

Our prediction of 146 total points makes this another strong under bet. Both teams favour defensive structures and low-scoring games.

The Optus Stadium Factor

While Carlton are playing away from home, Optus Stadium hasn’t been the fortress for West Coast that many expect. However, the home ground advantage combined with our statistical model makes the +25.5 line look absolutely massive.

The under continues to look strong given both teams’ recent defensive focus and our prediction pointing to a low-scoring affair.

Sunday Evening Reality

This shapes as another game where the market has massively overreacted to recent form and public perception. While Carlton should win, expecting them to cover a 25.5-point line based on our 4-point prediction model seems unrealistic.

The West Coast line bet represents potentially the best value we’ve seen all season.

The Bottom Line

We’re witnessing what appears to be systematic market overreaction across multiple games this round. Carlton are the better team and should win, but the gap has been massively exaggerated.

The +25.5 line for West Coast is the type of extraordinary value that comes along once in a blue moon – this is a must-bet situation.

Remember to gamble responsibly.