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St Kilda vs Geelong Tips Prediction
St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats Predictions
The last game for Saturday of this weeks Toyota AFL Premiership Tips and Predictions has St Kilda vs Geelong at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo & Foxtel.
St Kilda vs Geelong
Saturday, March 22, 2026
7:35 pm @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Saints75 : 141
Cats 
Win Percentages
St Kilda 38.35%
Geelong 61.65%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for St Kilda Saints set at $3.70, and $1.28 for the Geelong Cats, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Review
Geelong looked unstoppable last week, thumping Fremantle 147-69 in a statement win. Bailey Smith starred on debut, collecting 32 disposals, 693 metres gained, 12 score involvements and a goal in a standout performance. The Cats’ goal accuracy of 74.2% was clinical, and they looked sharp across all lines.
St Kilda, on the other hand, were outclassed by Adelaide, conceding 135 points in a heavy loss. But history gives Saints fans hope–they’ve beaten the Cats in their last three Marvel Stadium matchups, including a 107-89 upset in Round 23 last year, where Rowan Marshall dominated with 28 disposals, 17 contested possessions, and 10 clearances.
Marshall, recovering from a pre-season pelvis injury, played limited midfield minutes last week. Whether he returns to full ruck duties could be a key factor in this game.
Opportunity Bet
Biggest takeaway? The Saints are undervalued!
- The bookmakers are seriously underestimating St Kilda, giving them only a 25.17% probability, while our numbers suggest they have a much stronger 38.35% chance.
- If our analysis is correct, the fair odds for St Kilda should be closer to $2.61, yet they’re available at $3.70–a huge value opportunity.
- Meanwhile, Geelong is overvalued–the bookies price them at a 74.29% probability, but our numbers suggest they should be 61.65%.
Final Take
St Kilda at $3.70 is a strong value bet–the bookies may be seriously underrating them.
Geelong is a heavy favourite but overpriced, meaning there’s little value in backing them at $1.28.
If you’re looking for an underdog play, St Kilda offers solid upside at these odds!
Backing the Saints at $3.70 in this particular St Kilda vs Geelong game could be a sneaky high-value play… however we don’t see it happening this week!
Suggested Betting Tip:
Geelong 40+ @ $2.75 with
Ladbrokes
H-2-H Bet:
Geelong (NO VALUE) @ $1.28 with
Ladbrokes
St Kilda vs Geelong Head-to-Head Stats (2026 Season)
- Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda: 72.0, Geelong: 147.0 – (Geelong by 75 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: St Kilda: 135.0, Geelong: 69.0 – (Geelong by 66 points)
- Average Winning Margin: St Kilda: N/A, Geelong: 78.0
- Average Losing Margin: St Kilda: 63.0, Geelong: N/A
- HT/FT Double %: St Kilda: 0.0%, Geelong: 100.0% – (Geelong by 100%)
- Highest Score For: St Kilda: 72, Geelong: 147 – (Geelong by 75 points)
- Highest Score Against: St Kilda: 135, Geelong: 69 – (St Kilda by 66 points)
- Biggest Win: St Kilda: N/A, Geelong: 78
- Biggest Loss: St Kilda: 63, Geelong: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 207, Geelong: 216 – (Geelong by 9 points)
- Lowest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 207, Geelong: 216 – (Geelong by 9 points)
- Goal Accuracy For %: St Kilda: 50.0%, Geelong: 74.2% – (Geelong by 24.2%)
- Goal Accuracy Against %: St Kilda: 72.4%, Geelong: 71.4% – (St Kilda by 1%)
- Current Streak: St Kilda: L1, Geelong: W1 – (Geelong streak 1)
- Current Form: St Kilda: L, Geelong: W – (Geelong by 1 win)
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Even)
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, Geelong: 100.0% – (Geelong by 100%)
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Even)
2026 AFL Premiership Season – Round 2 Schedule
- Thursday, March 20, 2026
- 7:30 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Footscray vs Collingwood
- Friday, March 21, 2026
- 7:40 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Essendon vs Adelaide Crows
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 1:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 4:15 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
St Kilda vs Geelong Cats
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 1:10 pm AEDT @ Gabba, Brisbane
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 3:20 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Fremantle vs Sydney Swans
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 6:10 pm AEDT @ Optus Stadium, Perth
Related:
AFL Fixture
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AFL Injury List
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