GWS vs Hawthorn Prediction

Finals Footy Returns to Sydney as Giants Host Hawks in Elimination Thriller

Home • $1.80

VS

Away • $2.00

Saturday 3:15pm • ENGIE Stadium • 21km/h winds forecast

KRUZEY’S TIPS

Our model: GWS 51.8% chance to win

Market odds: $1.80 (55.6% implied)

Edge: -3.8% – no value on Giants head-to-head

Our predicted margin: GWS by 6 points

Line: GWS -3.5 at $1.90

Edge calculation: We predict a 6-point win; line is 3.5 — 2.5 points buffer ≈ +5.3% edge

Our predicted total: 168 points

Market total: 169.5 at $1.90

Edge calculation: 1.5 points under the market line ≈ +3.7% edge on the Under

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Here’s how I’ve crunched the numbers for this one. Based on season scoring averages (GWS 13.6 goals, Hawthorn 13 goals) and recent form adjustments, plus the finals intensity factor, I’m predicting:

Our Data Says: GWS 87, Hawthorn 81 (season averages adjusted for recent defensive improvements)

That gives GWS a 51.8% win chance, Hawthorn 48.2%

Bookmakers have GWS at $1.80 (55.6% implied) vs Hawthorn at $2.00 (50% implied)

The Market Edge: GWS -3.5 is the play (model margin 6 → +2.5 pts vs line), and the wind plus model total (168) leans to Under 169.5.

Let me walk you through the calculation. My model shows GWS as marginal 6-point favourites, and the market sets a -3.5 line. With that discrepancy in a finals match where both teams have shown they can win tight games, the preference is GWS with the points to cover, not the underdog.

FORM LINE

Looking at the last five games tells an interesting story.

GWS have won four of their last five, averaging 112.5 points in those wins – that’s well above their season average of 95. But here’s the kicker: that one loss was the Hawthorn game where they coughed up a 35-point lead.

The Giants are scoring 12 points per game above their season average recently, but their defence leaked badly when it mattered most.

Hawthorn’s 3-2 record in their last five doesn’t tell the full story.

They’ve beaten quality opposition in Melbourne (by 36) and Collingwood (by 64), while their losses came interstate to Brisbane and Adelaide.

The Hawks are averaging 91 points in their last five – right on their season mark – but it’s their defensive improvement that catches my eye, holding opponents to just 70.6 points per game recently.

KEY STATS

After crunching these numbers, the statistical matchup is closer than the bookies think.

GWS average 13.6 goals per game to Hawthorn’s 13, but in contested possessions – where finals are won – Hawthorn actually has the edge at 133.9 to 129.7.

The Giants’ superior disposal efficiency (73.8% vs 72.5%) matters less when the pressure’s on.

The inside 50 count is virtually identical – Hawthorn 52.8, GWS 50.7 – which tells me this game won’t be won by territory.

It’ll come down to conversion, and that’s where the weather could play a factor.

With 21km/h winds forecast and both teams’ accuracy wavering recently, I’m expecting scores to be lower than the 169.5 total suggests.

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