Right, I’ve spent the past few weeks going through 2025 form, trade period moves, fixture difficulty, injury lists, and everything else that matters heading into 2026.
And I’ve landed on a ladder prediction that I reckon will have half of you nodding along and the other half ready to throw your phone across the room.
Let’s get into it.
The Full 2026 Ladder Prediction
| Pos | Team | W | L | Pts | Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions | 18 | 5 | 72 | ✓ |
| 2 | Geelong Cats | 17 | 6 | 68 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks | 16 | 7 | 64 | ✓ |
| 4 | Adelaide Crows | 15 | 8 | 60 | ✓ |
| 5 | Western Bulldogs | 15 | 8 | 60 | ✓ |
| 6 | Collingwood Magpies | 15 | 8 | 60 | ✓ |
| 7 | GWS Giants | 15 | 8 | 60 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fremantle Dockers | 14 | 9 | 56 | ✓ |
| 9 | Gold Coast Suns | 14 | 9 | 56 | — |
| 10 | Sydney Swans | 13 | 10 | 52 | — |
| 11 | Carlton Blues | 10 | 13 | 40 | — |
| 12 | Port Adelaide Power | 10 | 13 | 40 | — |
| 13 | St Kilda Saints | 10 | 13 | 40 | — |
| 14 | Melbourne Demons | 8 | 15 | 32 | — |
| 15 | Essendon Bombers | 6 | 17 | 24 | — |
| 16 | North Melbourne | 6 | 17 | 24 | — |
| 17 | Richmond Tigers | 5 | 18 | 20 | — |
| 18 | West Coast Eagles | 4 | 19 | 16 | — |
Minor Premiers: Brisbane Lions
No surprises here. Back-to-back premiers with Will Ashcroft joining elite company by winning consecutive Norm Smith Medals.
This isn’t a team that flukes success – this is sustained excellence.
Joe Daniher retired after the 2024 premiership, and Brisbane somehow still went back-to-back in 2025 without him.
Now they’ve brought in Oscar Allen as a generational key forward to partner with Logan Morris. Sam Draper gives them a mobile, aggressive ruck presence. Eric Hipwood’s mid-season return from that partial ACL only adds to the depth.
Their fixture’s a dream too. Double-ups against Carlton and Essendon?
Yeah, I’m backing them to go around 18 wins and claim the minor premiership.
The Old Guard Refuses to Die: Geelong
I know, I know. We’ve been predicting Geelong’s decline for about five seasons now. Their list is old. Patrick Dangerfield can’t keep doing this.
Tom Stewart’s got to slow down eventually.
And yet.
Grand Finalists in 2025. Jeremy Cameron bagged the Coleman Medal with 83 goals. They’ve brought in James Worpel from Hawthorn and have Bailey Smith back from his ACL.
Their home ground at GMHBA Stadium remains an absolute fortress. Until the Cats actually fall, I’m not betting against them.
Second place, 17 wins.
The Young Guns Arrive: Hawthorn and Adelaide Lock In Top 4
Hawthorn under Sam Mitchell has gone from rebuild to genuine contender faster than anyone expected. They lost Worpel to Geelong, which stings, but Josh Weddle’s emergence keeps them dangerous.
The big question mark is Will Day. His right shoulder dislocation required a full reconstruction in January, and he’s expected to be sidelined until at least the mid-season bye in Round 14.
That’s a significant chunk of the season without one of their key players.
But their four-pronged key forward setup stretched defences all through 2025, and the MCG suits their ball movement perfectly. Third place feels right if they can manage without Day early.
Adelaide is where it gets interesting. Remember, they went from 14th to minor premiers in 2025 – the largest jump in AFL history. That’s extraordinary.
But then came September. Lost to Collingwood in the Qualifying Final. Lost to Hawthorn in the Semi. Out in straight sets. The first minor premiers since 1983 to be eliminated without winning a single final.
That’s a brutal reality check for a young group. Dan Curtin’s pre-season knee injury (out until roughly Round 7) doesn’t help.
But Izak Rankine and Jake Soligo give them a high floor, and the additions of Alex Neal-Bullen and Callum Ah Chee add genuine finals experience – something they desperately needed after that September nightmare.
Fourth place. Still a brilliant season if they get there, and a chance to prove last year’s finals exit was a blip, not a ceiling.
The Wildcard Bloodbath: Positions 5-10
This is where the new ten-team finals format makes things properly spicy. With the wildcard round now featuring teams finishing sixth through tenth, there’s a genuine scramble happening in the middle of the ladder.
Six teams fighting for essentially four spots at September action.
Western Bulldogs (5th): Post-Ugle-Hagan era begins with Sam Darcy stepping up. He’s dominated match simulations in pre-season. Adam Treloar showing superb form in January training. The Riley Garcia hamstring surgery (12 weeks out) hurts their depth, but they’ve got enough.
Collingwood (6th): They’ve gone all-in on the present. Traded out Mihocek and Cox, brought in Dan Houston and Harry Perryman. They only leave Melbourne six times this season—massive for an older list. But if soft-tissue injuries hit their veterans like Scott Pendlebury and Jeremy Howe? This could get ugly fast.
GWS Giants (7th): Adding Clayton Oliver from Melbourne gives them an elite contested-ball presence. Their fixture is one of the easiest based on who they play twice. Could easily push higher.
Fremantle (8th): Murphy Reid was the 2025 Rising Star for a reason, and the Caleb Serong/Andy Brayshaw midfield duo is premier-level. They’re on the verge of a deep finals run. The question is whether 2026 is the year it clicks.
The Calls That’ll Have You Fuming
Right, here’s where I’ll cop some heat. And look, I get it. But hear me out.
Gold Coast at 9th
Yes, they got Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan – two of the most dynamic players in the competition.
Pre-season reports from Carrara say both have raised the bar at training, with Ugle-Hagan returning to the fittest condition of his career after sitting out 2025.
On paper? That forward line of Ben King, Ugle-Hagan, and Bailey Humphrey is terrifying. But I’m pumping the brakes for three reasons:
- Fixture from hell: They play Brisbane, Geelong, and Hawthorn twice. That’s brutal.
- Away form: The Suns historically struggle more than any other club when playing outside Queensland. That travel burden is real.
- Chemistry takes time: “Super-teams” rarely click in year one. Everyone thought the same about the 2019 Bombers, the 2022 Bulldogs… I could go on. Tactical cohesion doesn’t happen overnight.
I think Gold Coast finishes 9th, just misses finals, and then becomes a genuine flag threat in 2027. Sometimes you need a season to gel.
Sydney Staying at 10th
Before you tell me I’ve lost the plot – yes, I know Sydney were 2024 Minor Premiers. But let’s not forget what happened next: they finished 10th in 2025. That fall already happened.
So predicting them at 10th again isn’t me calling for a dramatic slide. It’s me saying the Curnow addition might not be enough to climb back immediately.
They’ve landed Charlie Curnow, who’s arguably the best full forward in the game. Errol Gulden and Callum Mills are back after missing chunks of 2025. On paper, they should be better.
But here’s what concerns me
- The losses hurt: Ollie Florent and Will Hayward created significant gaps in their defensive transition. That’s not nothing.
- The Curnow trap: I’ve seen this before at Carlton—the temptation to bypass structured ball movement and just bomb it long to your star target. Sydney’s better than that, but it’s a risk when you’ve got a generational full forward.
I’ve got them at 13 wins, which could easily be enough for 8th in a tight year. But I think they’re more likely to hold steady around 9th or 10th while the new pieces figure each other out. If I’m wrong and they surge back into the top four? Fair play.
But I’m not predicting it.
The Rebuild Zone
Carlton (11th): Life after Curnow begins. They’re banking on Pick 3 draftee Harry Dean and ex-Giant Nick Haynes to stabilise a defence that leaked goals in 2025. About 10 wins feels right while they reset.
Port Adelaide (12th): They look stuck between eras. Losing Dan Houston removes their best rebounding weapon. The additions of Durdin and Brodie don’t compensate. Ken Hinkley’s seat gets warmer.
St Kilda (13th): Ross Lyon’s been collecting “fallen” stars like Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni from Carlton. I’m not convinced their offensive output improves enough to challenge. Same old Saints.
Melbourne (14th): The most dramatic list overhaul of 2026. Petracca and Oliver both gone. New coach Steven King moving away from the contest-heavy Goodwin style. They’ve got Jack Steele and Brody Mihocek for veteran leadership, and Max Gawn’s still elite, but losing two genuine A-graders drops you hard. This is a transition year.
The Bottom Four
This is where it gets grim.
Essendon (15th, 6 wins): Their 2025 was decimated by injuries, and Nic Martin’s off-season ACL tear is catastrophic for their outside speed. They’ve got talent returning in Jordan Ridley and Darcy Parish, but I can’t see them climbing higher than 15th.
North Melbourne (16th, 6 wins): Third year under Clarkson, but Jackson Archer’s ACL injury and Aidan Corr’s calf strain have interrupted their pre-season defensive cohesion. They’re building, but it’s slow.
Richmond (17th, 5 wins): Deep in a rebuild with the youngest list in the competition. Sam Lalor showed genuine promise in his debut season last year—18 disposals and two goals on debut against Carlton, 11 games before a July hamstring surgery cut his year short. He’s the future, but the present is going to be ugly. Five wins feels about right.
West Coast (18th, 4 wins): Look, they won a single match in 2025 with a percentage of 60.1%. Even with Willem Duursma at Pick 1 and premiership experience in Liam Baker, there’s a massive gap between them and the rest of the competition. That takes years to close. Wooden spoon.
The Injuries That Could Shift Everything
Keep an eye on these names:
- Will Day (Hawthorn): Shoulder reconstruction, out until at least the mid-season bye (Round 14).
- Dan Curtin (Adelaide): Dislocated kneecap, out until at least Round 7.
- Riley Garcia (Bulldogs): Hamstring surgery, 12-week sideline.
- Jackson Archer (North Melbourne): Ruptured ACL, out for 2026.
- Nic Martin (Essendon): Ruptured ACL, out for 2026.
Most of these hit the top eight and “just missed” tiers. GWS and Fremantle could capitalise early if their rivals are dealing with injury clouds.
And don’t forget the AAMI AFL Origin match on February 14. Victoria vs Western Australia in a high-intensity exhibition match is a black swan event for club doctors.
If someone like Errol Gulden or Isaac Heeney goes down there… well, that changes everything.
Where I’m Most Confident (And Where I’m Not)
High confidence: Top 3 and bottom 3. Brisbane, Geelong, and Hawthorn have genuine separation from the pack. West Coast, Richmond, and North are clearly below the rest.
Low confidence: Positions 4-8. Adelaide, the Bulldogs, Collingwood, GWS, and Freo are all within a couple of wins of each other. Any of these could shuffle based on injuries, fixture quirks, or just the chaos of a 23-game season.
The wildcard: Gold Coast. If Petracca and Ugle-Hagan click faster than expected, they could gate-crash the eight. But history says pump the brakes on super-teams in year one.
The Bottom Line
Brisbane and Geelong look locked in at the top. Hawthorn and Adelaide have genuinely arrived—though Adelaide need to prove they can win a final.
The new wildcard format makes positions 5-10 an absolute scramble. And the “super-teams” Gold Coast and Sydney have assembled? I’m saying pump the brakes until they actually prove it on the park.
Big names don’t win premierships. Teams do.
I’ll be tracking this prediction against the actual ladder all season. Some of these calls will age well. Some won’t.
That’s footy.
But for now? This is where I reckon we’re headed.
