Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Fremantle vs Adelaide Prediction
Teams are out and the news cuts both ways. Alex Pearce is back at fullback for Fremantle, which shuts the one hole Adelaide would have gone at. Adelaide bring in six and it is their best available side in a month, so the contest gets harder for the Dockers, not easier. Put the two against each other and I have not moved off my number, but I am not going to sit here and tell you it is a big edge.
AFL Round 23 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
FRE
$1.32
Friday, August 14 • 8:10pm AEST
98 : 77
Optus Stadium
ADE
$3.44
Fremantle Dockers by 21 points
Model Predicted Margin
Fremantle Dockers by 21
Current Market
Fremantle Dockers -20.5
0.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HFremantle Dockers
$1.32
LINEFremantle Dockers -20.5
$1.89
TOTALOver 171.5 points
$1.87
MULTIFremantle Dockers Win, Over 171.5 points & Jordan Dawson Anytime Goal
$3.70
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Adelaide Bring Their Best Side in a Month to Perth. I Still Want Fremantle Giving Up Twenty and a Half, and Only Just.
Fremantle were beaten by Melbourne last start and I am not shifting off them for it. Their fullback was managed that night and he plays this one, so the version of Fremantle that lost is not the one Adelaide get.
Adelaide’s six ins make them harder through the middle. I have already taken that off my number. What is left is still on Fremantle, just not by much.
The Line Is the Whole Argument
Twenty and a half is what Fremantle are being asked to do, and my number sits just the other side of it. That is as thin as it gets, so treat it that way. Small stake, no hero stuff. What gets me onto it is that everything outside the number sits with Fremantle: their ground, their defence back to full strength, and a Crows side that has to be sharper with the ball than it has been.
Adelaide’s Six Changes Still Leave Them a Problem
Six in makes this a stronger Crows side than the one that scraped past Richmond, and it is worth something, mostly through the middle. But Adelaide’s game is built on winning the contest and squeezing the opposition inside 50, and Fremantle are the wrong side to try that on. Winning the ball is only half the job when the other mob does more with it. So yes, the ins cost me part of the margin. They do not cost me the bet.
The Case Against Me Is Fremantle’s Last Month
Fremantle were beaten by Melbourne last start while Adelaide have taken their last two, so the form guide on this page is not exactly screaming for the ladder leaders. The difference is Pearce back at fullback, the one hole Adelaide would have gone at.
Why the Points Get There
Fremantle’s forward line takes the ball out of the air, and Adelaide put 145 on Essendon two rounds back, so there are two sides here who can make a scoreboard move. It is a still, mild night in Perth, so nothing in the conditions is dragging the score down. Be clear on what the over needs though: Fremantle on top and the game open. If Adelaide’s forward half pressure turns it ugly, the margin and the total go down together. That is why it pays what it pays, and why it is the smaller of my two bets.
Fremantle vs Adelaide Tip
I’m tipping Fremantle by 21, because Adelaide can win the hard ball all night and still lose this in the forward half.
Fremantle vs Adelaide Key Stats
MARKS INSIDE 50
FRE14
ADE11
Freo’s entries come down into a set of hands instead of a pack. That is a shot at goal rather than a scramble, and it is the difference between leading and putting a side away.
TACKLES INSIDE 50
FRE10
ADE12
Adelaide’s forward half pressure is the one thing that can drag this into a scrap. It is also the one thing that hurts both my legs at once, so it is what I am watching in the first quarter.
TURN OVERS
FRE62
ADE69
The Crows give it back more often, and Fremantle score off a mistake before you have set up behind the ball. Cheap possession is how a lead becomes a break.
Fremantle vs Adelaide Form Guide
Fremantle Dockers
LWWWW
- R22: L 109-113 vs Melbourne
- R21: W 78-41 vs Western Bulldogs
- R20: W 112-42 vs West Coast Eagles
- R19: W 103-75 vs Port Adelaide
- R18: W 111-73 vs Sydney Swans
Adelaide Crows
WWLWW
- R22: W 63-54 vs Richmond
- R21: W 145-73 vs Essendon
- R20: L 74-108 vs Collingwood
- R19: W 87-71 vs Sydney Swans
- R18: W 128-49 vs Gold Coast Suns
Michael’s Verdict
Fremantle by 21 against a line of 20.5. That is thin, so it is a small play, and I would rather say that than dress it up as something it isn’t. The ground is theirs, their defence is back to full strength, and Adelaide have to be cleaner with it than they have been to make me wrong. If their fresh midfield drags this into a scrap and the margin never arrives, I lose it. I still think Fremantle have too much of what matters.
Our Bets
H2H Fremantle Dockers$1.32
LINE Fremantle Dockers -20.5$1.89
TOTAL Over 171.5 points$1.87
MULTI Fremantle Dockers Win, Over 171.5 points & Jordan Dawson Anytime Goal$3.70
Player Prop Predictions
James Peatling 20 or more disposals, $1.82. Twenty on the board last start, which is all this market asks for, and he has landed 20 or more in four of his last seven. Adelaide can win the hard ball all night in this one and he will be in the thick of it.
Josh Treacy three or more goals, $2.07. Two last start does not put me off when he has kicked three or more in four of his last seven, with a four in there as well. I have Fremantle winning the forward half by a mile, and that is where this one gets paid at $2.07.
Matthew Johnson 20 or more disposals, $1.60. Twenty four last start and a 29 in there two weeks earlier, so the ceiling is well clear of this line. At least 20 in four of his last seven, and with Fremantle expected to have the better of it he keeps getting his hands on the footy.
Patrick Voss two or more goals, $1.66. Four goals last start, and that is the sort of day that comes when your side owns the forward half. Two or more in four of his last seven, and I have Fremantle winning by 21 on the back of exactly that.
Jordan Dawson to kick a goal, $1.50. He’s hit the scoreboard in four of his last seven.
The Props I Like
PROP James Peatling 20+ Disposals$1.82
PROP Josh Treacy 3+ Goals$2.07
PROP Matthew Johnson 20+ Disposals$1.60
PROP Patrick Voss 2+ Goals$1.66
PROP Jordan Dawson Anytime Goal$1.50
Player Props MultiJordan Dawson Anytime Goal, Matthew Johnson 20+ Disposals & Patrick Voss 2+ Goals, my price $3.98
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows |
| Date | Friday, August 14 |
| Kick-off | 8:10pm AEST |
| Venue | Optus Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 23 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Fremantle Dockers Win, Over 171.5 points & Jordan Dawson Anytime Goal @ $3.70 |
| Predicted Score | Fremantle Dockers 98 – Adelaide Crows 77 |
Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows FAQs
Who will win Fremantle vs Adelaide?
I’m tipping Fremantle at Optus Stadium and I have them doing enough to cover 20.5. Adelaide come in with six changes and their best side in a month, but Fremantle’s defence is back to full strength and it is what happens after the ball goes in that decides this one.
What is the best bet for Fremantle vs Adelaide in Round 23?
My headline multi at $3.70 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Jordan Dawson Anytime Goal. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Where is the Fremantle vs Adelaide Round 23 match being played?
The match is at Optus Stadium in Perth, bouncing down at 8:10pm AEST (6:10pm local time) on Friday 14 August 2026.
Is 20.5 the best line going on Fremantle?
It is what I could get this morning at $1.89, and it is the line the whole bet hangs on. Prices move once the money comes, so shop your own before the bounce rather than taking mine at face value.
What kills this bet?
Adelaide’s forward half pressure turning it into a scrap. If the game goes ugly I do not get the margin and I do not get the total, so the line and the multi die together.
Who is Fremantle Dockers playing next week?
Fremantle play Carlton - at Marvel Stadium on Saturday 22 August in AFL Round 24.
Who is Adelaide Crows playing next week?
Adelaide play Greater Western Sydney - at Adelaide Oval on Saturday 22 August in AFL Round 24.
