Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Prediction
Sudden death at the MCG, and the loser is finished…
Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with it. Where these two finished on the ladder is worth nothing in a final that comes down to a kick. I have it that tight, which means the bet worth having is not the winner.
AFL Wildcard Final • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
MEL
$2.16
Saturday, August 29 • 7:35pm AEST
83 : 87
Melbourne Cricket Ground
CAR
$1.70
Carlton Blues by 4 points
Model Predicted Margin
Carlton Blues by 4
Current Market
Carlton Blues -5.5
1.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HCarlton Blues
$1.70
LINEMelbourne Demons +5.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 172.5 points
$1.87
MULTIDemons +5.5 & Under 172.5
$3.55
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
The Market Has Carlton and So Do I. The Bet Worth Having Is Melbourne and the Points.
These two want the game played at different speeds. Melbourne win it at the source, in the ruck and at the centre bounces, and Carlton are the better side once the ball is in hand. In a game this close that is the whole difference.
I lean Carlton, but only just. Four points is one kick, and a four point call is not something I want to build a bet around.
The line is where this gets interesting. If Carlton win it the way I think they do, Melbourne still cover the 5.5, and I would rather back a side that only needs the game to stay close than pick a winner in a coin flip.
The total sits with it. I have this landing on 170 against a line of 172.5. That is not a big disagreement and I’m not going to dress it up as one, but two sides that fight over every stoppage don’t tend to blow a final open.
Where I want to be straight with you is the multi. Three fifty five is just the two prices multiplied, and it shouldn’t be, because both legs want the same game. Melbourne hanging inside a kick and a scrappy, low scoring night are the same night. Carlton getting it on their terms early kills both at once.
So take it knowing they land together or go together, not as two opinions.
Carlton to nick it, and Melbourne and the points with the under is the bet I want.
Melbourne vs Carlton Tip
I’m tipping Carlton by four, because they use the ball better than Melbourne once they have it, and that is what decides a final this tight.
Melbourne vs Carlton Key Stats
MARKS
MEL86
CAR104
Every mark Carlton take is a stoppage that never happens, which is how they drag Melbourne out of the part of the game Melbourne are actually good at.
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS
MEL212
CAR247
Space is where Carlton are comfortable. Let them have it early and the margin gets away from a kick, and that is the way the line bet dies.
HIT OUTS
MEL41
CAR28
Melbourne own the ruck, which is why I have Carlton by a kick rather than by plenty. It also keeps the ball in dispute, and that suits the under.
Melbourne vs Carlton Form Guide
Melbourne Demons
LWWWL
- R24: L 87-108 vs Western Bulldogs
- R23: W 132-56 vs Port Adelaide
- R22: W 113-109 vs Fremantle
- R21: W 114-105 vs Gold Coast Suns
- R20: L 97-117 vs Geelong Cats
Carlton Blues
WDWWW
- R24: W 119-82 vs Fremantle
- R23: D 82-82 vs Western Bulldogs
- R22: W 106-62 vs St Kilda
- R21: W 154-78 vs Brisbane Lions
- R20: W 110-97 vs Gold Coast Suns
Michael’s Verdict
Carlton to nick it, with Melbourne and the points and the under the bet I want alongside it. Two sides playing to keep a season alive tend to strangle each other rather than trade goals. Prices here are what I’ve got at the time of writing, so check them before you back it.
Our Bets
H2H Carlton Blues$1.70
LINE Melbourne Demons +5.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 172.5 points$1.87
MULTI Demons +5.5 & Under 172.5$3.55
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues |
| Date | Saturday, August 29 |
| Kick-off | 7:35pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Final | AFL Wildcard Final |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Melbourne Multi: Line + Under 172.5 @ $3.55 |
| Predicted Score | Melbourne Demons 83 – Carlton Blues 87 |
Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues FAQs
Who will win Melbourne vs Carlton?
I’m tipping Carlton, but only just. I have them by four, 87 to 83, which is a one kick game. Carlton come in with four wins and a draw from their last five.
What is the best bet for Melbourne vs Carlton in the Wildcard Round?
My best bet is the Melbourne multi at $3.55: the line and the under 172.5. That is the featured tip at the top of this page.
Where is the Melbourne vs Carlton Wildcard Round match being played?
The match is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, bouncing down at 7:35pm AEST on Saturday 29 August 2026.
Who is Melbourne Demons playing next week?
Only if they win. Melbourne finished seventh, the highest seed of the four sides in the wildcard round, so beating Carlton sends them to Adelaide Oval to play Adelaide in an elimination final on Saturday 5 September. Lose and their season is over.
Who is Carlton Blues playing next week?
Only if they win. Carlton finished tenth, the lowest seed of the four, so getting through here sends them to the MCG to play Geelong in an elimination final on Friday 4 September. Lose and the season ends here.
