Carlton vs Fremantle Prediction

AFL Round 24 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

CAR

$2.30

Saturday, August 22 • 1:15pm AEST

84 : 97

Marvel Stadium

FRE

$1.63

Fremantle Dockers by 13 points

Model Predicted Margin

Fremantle Dockers by 13

Current Market

Fremantle Dockers -8.5

4.5 pts edge

Our Bets This Game

H2HFremantle Dockers

$1.63

LINEFremantle Dockers -8.5

$1.91

TOTALUnder 184.5 points

$1.87

MULTIFremantle Dockers Win, Under 184.5 points & Andrew Brayshaw 25+ Disposals

$4.63

Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet

Odds correct at time of posting

Fremantle Have Managed Three Out and Still Start Favourites. Carlton Are In the Finals and Travelling Either Way.

The only reason this is a bet rather than a formality is the team sheet.

None of the three coming out changes the ruck and none of them changes the spine. Fremantle still have the better side down the middle, and that is what wins a game at Marvel Stadium.

First Use of the Ball Is the Whole Argument

Fremantle win the hit outs by a distance, and Luke Jackson gets first crack at the taps against a Carlton ruck division that has been giving up ground all year.

Taps on their own do not win you anything. It is what happens underneath them that counts, and Fremantle’s midfield is built to take it. Win the first look often enough and you get to play the game in front of you rather than behind it. That is the mechanism behind the 13 point margin I have.

First Place Is Already Theirs, and They Have Managed Three Out

Judd McVee and Bailey Banfield come back in and Tobyn Murray debuts. All three of the blokes sitting this one out had played every game of the season, so it is a real change to the side and I am not going to pretend it is nothing.

But Alex Pearce, Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong, Luke Jackson and Josh Treacy are all named, and the club has called this a finals tune up rather than a week off. A side chasing rhythm before a home qualifying final does not want a scrappy afternoon any more than I do.

Carlton Are Travelling Either Way

Carlton banked their finals spot with the draw against the Western Bulldogs and they finish ninth or tenth from here. Both of those mean a wildcard final away from home.

So the prize on offer is which opponent they get, not whether they get one. That is a real thing to play for and it is not the same thing as a season riding on the result.

The Case Against Me Is Carlton at Their Best

Carlton put 154 on Brisbane in Round 21 and held the Bulldogs to a draw last start, and they have beaten Fremantle once in the last three meetings. When their forward line clicks they can bury anyone, and 8.5 points is not a lot of room. Fremantle are also flying across the country with top spot already sewn up, and that sits against them too.

What is different is who is at the other end this time. Fremantle are the side finishing on top of the ladder, and Carlton’s best fortnight came against sides who could not stop the ball coming back the other way.

The Under Is the Thinnest of the Three

I have the total at 181 against a line of 184.5, so there is not much in it. Run my margin back through that and I get Fremantle 97, Carlton 84. That is under, but only just, and one late run of goals kills it.

A 1:15pm start under the roof with two sides who both want the ball on the deck usually keeps a lid on it. Take it at $1.87 if you want it, but the line on its own is the bet I actually want.

Carlton vs Fremantle Tip

I’m tipping Fremantle by about two goals. They get first use of the ball in this one and Carlton have no way around it.

Carlton vs Fremantle Key Stats

Carlton vs Fremantle Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Marc Pittonet to kick a goal, $2.15. Marc Pittonet has found the goals late, two in a game a fortnight back and another one last start, so he is hitting the scoreboard in three of his last six. Carlton will be defending plenty, but he is getting forward when the ball comes his way and $2.15 is fair for a bloke in that touch.

Mason Cox to kick a goal, $2.15. Mason Cox goaled last start and has landed it in three of his last six, so the returns come in bursts rather than every week. With Fremantle winning first use of it in my read, the ball should spend enough time in his half to bring up one at $2.15.

Andrew Brayshaw 25 or more disposals, $1.52. Andrew Brayshaw put up 27 disposals last start and has cleared 25 or more in four of his last seven, with the low weeks still sitting in the low twenties. Fremantle controlling the ball through the middle is exactly the game that feeds him, and $1.52 is a steady leg for a reason.

Matthew Johnson 20 or more disposals, $1.82. Matthew Johnson has been in and out, 16 last start after a 24, and he has got to 20 or more in four of his last seven. He needs the game to come to him, but if Fremantle own the contest the way I expect, the ball finds him often enough at $1.82.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

Up Next in the AFL

Today 7:40pm AEST Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Prediction Tomorrow 7:35pm AEST Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction