How Trap For Fools Made Us Look Foolish

Michael Kruse / November 13, 2018

Winning fast, slowly and after being flat

Our good friend Ralph from racetrackralphy.com.au has taken a deep dive into the weekends racing to give us a better understanding and insight into the two main races that took place on Saturday.

1/ REDZEL IS A RIPPER BUT THE PRICE WAS PUZZLING

We get them right and wrong, but the Redzel price was dead set puzzling and I’m not calling it in hindsight either

He was absolutely smashed in the betting from $3:20 to $2:80 – which is a monster move with such liquidity in the pool – and it was like the market just decided he was a now champion after winning the Everest ON WET GOING WHICH HE THRIVES ON AND WITHOUT MID RACE PRESSURE TO MAKE HIM VULNERABLE at $8:50, after not only US ARMY RANGER missed the start, but VEGA MAGIC jumped awkwardly and wasn’t pressed forward.

In other words in a race where he had everything in his favour REDZEL was $8:50, but then when into a race on a firm track with speed and sustained speed assured punters backed him into $2:80

Madness!

Keep in mind between winning the Everest and last year’s VRC sprint, his 1200 performances – all firm tracks – were:

# April 7th Randwick 2nd in the TJ Smith to TRAPEZE ARTIST +4.8 lengths above benchmark
# May 12th Doomben 4th in the Doomben 10,000 +2.5 lengths above benchmark
# September 29th Randwick 5th Premiere Stakes +5.4 lengths above benchmark

And for further clarity when Vince Accardi and I did an Everest preview blog, the initial overview a week before the race without knowledge of the wet track was:

REDZEL 6YO GELDING – PETER AND PAUL SNOWDEN

Overview as of 08/10:

Obviously a terrific sprinter winning 13 of his 27 starts and last year’s inaugural Everest, and clearly sole-focused set for this by the Snowdens to defend his title, but the reality is his level is below other recent high class sprinters such as CHAUTAUQUA. His challenge however is 1200 is at the end of his distance range, and his +7.2 lengths above IVR figure in winning last year is his career best and just behind a few. Can’t dismiss him running to that, but race shape – as it did last year – may decide his chances

He’s a bloody good, fast and honest sprinter, but superstar he ain’t and in winning the Everest this year produced an adjusted (for the wet ground) IVR figure of +5.6 lengths above IVR benchmark

And of course with $15,397,000 in the kitty if I part owned him any criticism wouldn’t worry me!

But peel back the noise and accolades.

The reality is he isn’t in the same class as the best of CHAUTAUQUA and isn’t in the same solar system as BLACK CAVIAR!

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2/ FAST TRAP FOR FOOLS WON A SLOW GROUP 1!

How does and honest on pacer stayer in TRAP FOR FOOLS beat the Irish Derby winner LATROBE and the VRC Derby winner EXTRA BRUT?

By running to – near – his best while others including easing favourite BLAIR HOUSE were well below theirs

(Just on that point BLAIR HOUSE $2:20 out to $2:70 with severe Betfairitis and at least 5 lengths below his best. Any meaningful questions or enquiries? Of course not)

Back in July we Sizzled TRAP FOR FOOLS after running 2nd same track/distance to SIXTIES GROOVE

TRAP FOR FOOLS the 1.3 length 2nd in Race 8

+1.3 lengths above benchmark and 10th best of the day was a 0.7 length improvement from his 2nd up previous run at Caulfield when 3rd and ranked 14th says he’s ready to get to his WA best. +1.3 to the 800, but not only a 2.2 length mid race slowdown to the 400, before a +0.6 finish, but a micro look at the last 400 saw a -1.5 from the 400 to 200, before a +2.0 last 200 so a 3.5 increase of speed despite that slowdown chasing smart stablemate (sort of Jarrod McLean is Warrnambool foreman for Weir) SIXTIES GROOVE. Has an overall PB in Perth of +5.0 lengths above benchmark after going +11.9 early. That means a stayer of genuine talent who is at his best running quickly early.

Well on Saturday he’s won the Group 1 megamoney in the McKinnon going just 1.5 lengths better, which was 2.2 less than his PB in Perth.

He closed with the 99th best last 800 of the day, the 95th best last 600 and the 85th best last 400 so to say the least he was there to be beaten!

And wasn’t…

LATROBE missed the Melbourne Cup for a reason, EXTRA BRUT was flat from the murderous lead speed Derby and as mentioned BLAIR HOUSE didn’t turn up

Example 9 million and 7 that once the gates open anything can happen…

 

Vince Accardi and Ralph have recorded their wrap of the Melbourne Cup, the Oaks and the main races on Stakes Day on their member sponsored free and corporate bookie Ad free Year Round Carnival podcast and strongly recommend you check this out!

https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/year-round-carnival-by-vince-accardi-racetrack-ralphy/id1272190424?mt=2

 

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/year-round-carnival-by-vince-accardi-racetrack-ralphy/id1272190424?mt=2 review of the weekend’s main races every Monday

Michael Kruse
Michael loves all things all horse racing and has been in the game for quite some time. His knowledge in the betting space is second... [Read full bio]

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