Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips – Round 5 2026
AFL Round 5 • 2026 Model Predicted – Final Score…
Carlton VS Collingwood Prediction
AFL Round 6 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
CARL
$2.81
Thursday, April 16
70 : 82
MCG
COLL
$1.44
Collingwood by 12 points
Model Predicted Margin
Collingwood by 12
Current Market
Carlton +14.5
2.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Collingwood Magpies H2H @ $1.44
Our model has Collingwood by 12 – 2.5 points fewer than the market line on a wet MCG.
Value BetLINE BETTING
Carlton Blues +14.5 @ $1.90
Odds correct at time of posting
Blues vs Pies Prediction: Rain Keeps Carlton in It | AFL Round 6
Collingwood smashed Carlton by 56 in Round 17 last year. That’s the number the market is anchoring to. But that was a dry day against a side that had already packed it in.
Thursday night is a different beast. Rain at the MCG compresses margins. Carlton’s clearance dominance is the kind of edge that plays up in the wet – they win the contested ball, they win the stoppages, and slippery conditions neutralise Collingwood’s cleaner ball movement on the outside.
The Pies’ marking advantage evaporates when the ball’s on the deck. Their uncontested game relies on finding targets by foot, and that gets ugly when disposal efficiency drops across the board.
The risk is Carlton’s form. One win from five is dire, and their defence has been leaking all season. If Collingwood’s forwards get on top early and Carlton’s heads drop, this could blow out regardless of conditions.
But derbies don’t blow out in the rain. Our model says 12. The line says 14.5. Take the points and back the weather to do its job.
Blues vs Pies Tip
Collingwood win, but Carlton with 14.5 points on a wet MCG is the bet – our model has the Pies by only 12.
Blues vs Pies Key Stats
CLEARANCES
CARL39
COLL28
Carlton’s 10-clearance edge per game is the kind of advantage that compounds in wet conditions.
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS
CARL141
COLL115
Carlton dominate at the coalface – critical when rain takes clean ball movement off the table.
MARKS
CARL80
COLL104
Collingwood’s marking advantage shrinks significantly when the ball is wet and on the ground.
Blues vs Pies Form Guide
Carlton Blues
LLLWL
- L 86-114 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 86-96 vs North Melbourne
- L 77-100 vs Melbourne
- W 75-71 vs Richmond
- L 69-132 vs Sydney Swans
Collingwood Magpies
LLWLW
- L 39-45 vs Fremantle
- L 65-119 vs Brisbane Lions
- W 87-54 vs GWS Giants
- L 79-93 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 78-66 vs St Kilda
Final Verdict
Carlton’s clearance edge and a wet MCG keep this around two goals. The 14.5 is generous for a rivalry game in the rain.
LOCK IT IN: Carlton +14.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies |
| Date | Thursday, April 16 |
| Venue | MCG |
| Our Tip | Carlton +14.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Carlton Blues 70 – Collingwood Magpies 82 |
Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies FAQs
Who will win Carlton vs Collingwood?
Our model predicts Collingwood to win by 12 points at the MCG. The Magpies are the better side on paper, but wet conditions and Carlton’s clearance dominance should keep the margin tight.
What are the best bets for Carlton vs Collingwood Round 6?
Carlton +14.5 at $1.90 is the value play. Our model has Collingwood winning by 12, which is 2.5 points fewer than the market line. Rain at the MCG further supports a compressed margin.
What is the predicted score for Carlton vs Collingwood?
Our model predicts Carlton 70 to Collingwood 82. Both sides are averaging modest totals this season, and wet weather at the MCG should keep scoring low.
