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Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction
Game 2 of Round 14 of the 2026 AFL Premiership on June 13 features the Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows at University of Tasmania Stadium on Friday night. Get the latest AFL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Predictions
Friday, June 13, 2026
7:40pm @ University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston
Final Score Prediction
Hawks
86 : 93
Crows
Friday night in Launceston sets up an intriguing clash between two sides looking to build momentum in the second half of the season.
Despite the Hawks having slight favouritism with the bookies, our analysis suggests this could be closer than the market expects, with Adelaide having the edge in several key metrics.
Win Percentages
Hawks
41.56%
41.56%
Crows
58.44%
58.44%
The Market Check
The bookies have the Hawks as narrow favorites at home, but the numbers suggest this might be an overreaction to venue advantage.
Adelaide have been the more consistent performer across most key statistical categories, making them potentially undervalued at current odds.
Why Adelaide Could Win
The Crows have been superior across several key metrics this season. They’re averaging 12.5 points more per game in attack, conceding 6 points less defensively, and have shown better consistency in their winning margins.
Their power ranking advantage suggests they’re the better team on neutral ground.
The Hawks’ Home Advantage
If there’s a case for Hawthorn at $1.79, it’s their venue advantage at University of Tasmania Stadium where they’ve built a strong connection with the local crowd.
When the Hawks get their game plan right in Launceston, they can be difficult to beat. But the statistics suggest they’re fighting an uphill battle.
Head-to-Head Analysis
The numbers favor Adelaide:
- Attack: Crows averaging 12.5 points more per game
- Defence: Adelaide conceding 6 points less per game
- Power Rankings: Crows significantly higher overall
- Consistency: Better winning percentage and margins
- Recent Form: Adelaide showing superior statistics across most categories
Game Style Prediction: Balanced moderate scoring affair with Adelaide likely to control key moments.
Expected Total: Around 179 points – moderate to high scoring expected in Launceston conditions
Our Betting Strategy
Value Play: Adelaide to Win
Crows @ $1.97
Despite playing away from home, Adelaide represent excellent value given their superior form across most key metrics. The market may be overvaluing Hawthorn’s venue advantage.
Alternative: Adelaide +1.5
Adelaide +1.5 @ $1.90
If you’re worried about venue advantage, taking Adelaide with the small handicap start provides insurance while still backing the statistically superior team.
The Launceston Factor
University of Tasmania Stadium has been a happy hunting ground for Hawthorn, but Adelaide’s superior statistics suggest they should overcome any venue disadvantage.
The 153.5 total looks particularly appealing given both teams’ recent scoring trends and the generally favourable conditions in Tasmania.
Friday Night Reality
This shapes as one of those Friday night games where the better team eventually wins out. While Hawthorn have venue advantage, Adelaide’s superior form across most key metrics should tell in the end.
The Crows represent excellent value at $1.97 for what should be a competitive contest.
The Bottom Line
Sometimes the market gets it wrong, and this looks like one of those occasions. Adelaide are the statistically superior team being offered at generous odds due to venue bias.
Back the Crows to get the job done, whether straight up or with the safety net of the +1.5 start. The numbers don’t lie.
Remember to gamble responsibly.
Related:
AFL Draw
Check the AFL Draw for upcoming AFL matches this season.
AFL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our AFL injury list.
Other Betting Tips
We don’t just do AFL tips; our experts also specialise in NRL betting and horse racing tips.
