West Coast VS Fremantle Prediction
AFL Round 6 • 2026 Model Predicted – Final Score…
Hawthorn VS Port Adelaide Prediction
AFL Round 6 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
Hawthorn by 31 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn by 31
Current Market
Hawthorn -40.5
9.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: Port Adelaide Power +40.5 @ $1.91
Our model has Hawthorn by 31, giving nearly 10 points of value on Port’s line.
Odds correct at time of posting
Hawks vs Power Predictions: Port’s Line Is Too Generous | AFL Round 6
Port copped a 38-point hiding from the Hawks in Round 19 last year, and that’s the scoreline the market’s anchored to. But Port’s 2026 is a different beast – wins over Richmond and Essendon, and a two-point loss to West Coast that could’ve gone either way.
Hawthorn are clearly the better side. Their ability to win the ball at stoppages and then use it cleanly through the corridor is what separates them from most of the comp. The question isn’t who wins – it’s whether the Hawks win by 41.
The model says no. Our number is 31, and that’s with Hawthorn’s momentum factored in at its highest weighting. Port’s contested game is down on the Hawks but not so far down that they’ll be blown off the park.
The risk is Hawthorn’s ceiling. If they hit that gear again, 40 points disappears fast.
But Port have enough midfield grunt to keep possessions competitive, and Marvel’s roof suits a team trying to stay in the fight. Nine and a half points of buffer is too much to leave on the table.
Hawks vs Power Tip
Hawthorn win by around 31 points, but Port Adelaide’s 40.5-point start is nearly ten points more than our model suggests – take the Power on the line.
Hawks vs Power Key Stats
STOPPAGE CLEARANCES
HAW25
PORT19
Hawthorn’s dominance at stoppages drives their scoring – but Port’s centre clearances are nearly even, keeping them in the contest.
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS
HAW133
PORT121
Port are behind but not buried – this gap isn’t wide enough to produce a 40-point blowout on its own.
INSIDE 50 EFFICIENCY
HAW59%
PORT52%
Hawthorn convert better going forward, which is why they win – but Port’s rate still keeps them scoring enough to cover the line.
Hawks vs Power Form Guide
Hawthorn Hawks
WWWWL
- W 104-64 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 92-91 vs Geelong Cats
- W 99-82 vs Sydney Swans
- W 145-83 vs Essendon
- L 95-122 vs GWS Giants
Port Adelaide Power
LWLWL
- L 67-81 vs St Kilda
- W 90-48 vs Richmond
- L 90-92 vs West Coast Eagles
- W 133-70 vs Essendon
- L 67-113 vs North Melbourne
Final Verdict
The Hawks win comfortably but the books have priced in Port’s worst performance, not their average. Back the Power with the points.
LOCK IT IN: Port Adelaide +40.5 @ $1.91
Key Facts
| Match | Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power |
| Date | Saturday, April 18 |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Our Tip | Port Adelaide +40.5 @ $1.91 |
| Predicted Score | Hawthorn Hawks 115 – Port Adelaide Power 84 |
Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power FAQs
Who will win Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide?
Hawthorn are heavy favourites at $1.11 and our model agrees, predicting a 31-point Hawks win at Marvel Stadium. The Hawks sit third on the ladder with four wins from five games.
What are the best bets for Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide Round 6?
Our recommended bet is Port Adelaide +40.5 at $1.91. The model has Hawthorn winning by 31 points, nearly 10 fewer than the market line, making Port’s points start strong value.
What is the predicted score for Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide?
Our model predicts Hawthorn 115 to Port Adelaide 84, a 31-point margin. That’s well inside the 40.5-point line the bookmakers are offering on Port Adelaide.
