Morphettville Race Tips – Saturday January 31 2026
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Essendon vs Hawthorn Prediction
Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks Predictions
Friday, March 13, 2026
7:40pm AEDT @ Melbourne Cricket Ground
Final Score Prediction
Essendon Bombers
59 : 87
Hawthorn Hawks
If you’re looking for the most loaded storyline of Round 1, it’s right here. Zach Merrett – five-time Crichton medallist, former Essendon captain – lines up against the club he tried to trade to last year.
He lost the captaincy over it. Now he has to front up against them in front of a packed MCG on a Friday night.
You genuinely couldn’t script it.
Forget the soap opera for a second though, because the numbers here are pretty ugly for the Bombers.
The Dons won 0 of their last five games in 2025. The Hawks won 3. And Essendon heads into this with an injury list that reads like a who’s who – multiple first-choice players out, draftees sidelined, the cupboard is bare.
There is a catch though. Hawthorn got beaten by GWS last week – a GWS side that went in undermanned and still outworked them through the middle.
Their onball brigade is a genuine question mark. If the Hawks can’t lift their midfield output, 28 points might be the ceiling here rather than the floor.
Best Bets
Here’s where it gets interesting. The model has Hawthorn winning by 28 – but the market’s line is 30.5.
That means the model is actually sitting just *under* the line, which makes the -30.5 bet a harder sell than it looks on paper.
The head-to-head at $1.21 is where I’m landing. Yes, $1.21 isn’t going to excite anyone, but the case for Hawthorn winning this game outright is as close to a certainty as you’ll get in footy.
Essendon is decimated by injury, they went 0-from-5 to end 2025, and they’re coming up against a Hawks side with a 102.2 momentum score and something to prove after being outworked last week.
Hawthorn won this same fixture by 26 points last season – on a night where Merrett will be absolutely desperate to perform.
The line at $1.92 is tempting, but with the model only predicting a 28-point margin and a Hawks midfield that’s already shown cracks, I don’t want to be sweating on two-and-a-half points if this tightens late.
Take the win, light stake given the short odds.
BEST BET
ESSENDON vs HAWTHORN • MCG
Tip: HAWTHORN HAWKS H2H
Odds: $1.21
Confidence
8/10
What to Watch
- Zach Merrett vs Hawthorn: The elephant in the room. He wanted out, lost the captaincy, and now lines up against them. Five-time club champion award winner with a massive point to prove – he could either be the Bombers’ one-man band or get swamped. Either way, watch him closely from the opening bounce.
- Hawthorn’s midfield response: They got outworked through the middle by GWS last week, which nobody saw coming. If they can’t lift their contested numbers against a depleted Essendon, questions will mount quickly about how their onball brigade holds up across a full season.
- Blake Hardwick’s milestone: The Hawthorn defender reaches 200 games in this one. Milestone matches have a funny way of lifting a player’s performance – and his role shutting down Essendon’s small forwards like Isaac Kako could be decisive if the Bombers try to run and gun their way back into it.
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