Carlton vs North Melbourne Prediction

Game 3 of Round 15 of the 2025 AFL Premiership on June 21 features the Carlton Blues vs North Melbourne Kangaroos at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. Get the latest AFL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Carlton Blues vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Predictions

Saturday, June 21, 2025

1:20pm @ MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Blues

76 : 70

Kangaroos

Saturday afternoon at the MCG presents another massive betting opportunity where the market appears to have completely overshot.

Carlton are heavy favourites against struggling North Melbourne, but our analysis reveals this could be far closer than the 24.5 point line suggests, creating exceptional value for astute punters.

Win Percentages

Blues
58.77%

Kangaroos
41.23%

The Market Check

Once again, we’re seeing a massive disconnect between our predicted margin and the bookmakers’ line.

Carlton giving up 24.5 points when our model suggests just a 6-point margin represents one of the biggest overlays of the round – a pattern that’s emerging across multiple games this weekend.

Blues

Kangaroos

Why Carlton Should Win

The Blues sit 7 positions higher on the ladder and have been far superior defensively, conceding 17.8 fewer points per game. Their 23% better win rate demonstrates the consistency gap between these sides.

Playing at the MCG, Carlton should have enough class to secure the victory against the struggling Kangaroos.

Head-to-Head Analysis

The statistics show a clear favorite, but not by the margin suggested:

Attack: Carlton averaging 3.8 points more per game
Defence: Blues conceding 17.8 points less per game
Power Rankings: Carlton 6th vs North Melbourne 13th
Win Rate: 23% better record for Carlton
The Opportunity: 6-point predicted margin vs 24.5-point line

Game Style Prediction: Likely blowout potential but low-scoring affair
Expected Total: Around 146 points – take the unders

Our Betting Strategy

Safe Play: Blues to Win

Blues @ $1.23

Carlton should handle North Melbourne at the MCG. Short odds but reliable for multi-bet builders needing a banker.

Outstanding Value: Kangaroos +24.5

North Melbourne +24.5 @ $1.86

Another massive overlay! Getting nearly 4 goals start when we predict just a 6-point game is incredible value. This is a must-bet for value hunters.

Long Shot Special: Kangaroos Upset

Kangaroos @ $3.95

With a 41% chance of victory and marked as a “Toss Up”, the nearly 4-1 odds offer genuine value for those brave enough to back the upset.

The MCG Factor

The MCG can be a leveler for Victorian teams, and North Melbourne have shown they can be competitive when the pressure is off. Carlton’s defensive superiority should see them home, but in a low-scoring grind rather than a percentage-boosting romp.

The under 165.5 total points line also looks appealing given our projected 146 total.

The Bottom Line

Three games into the round and we’re seeing a clear pattern – bookmakers are overestimating margins across the board. The 24.5 point line is simply too much for what projects as a competitive contest.

North Melbourne +24.5 is our strongest play, offering exceptional value in what should be a much tighter affair than the market suggests.

Remember to gamble responsibly.