Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
West Coast vs Hawthorn Prediction
Hawthorn have a double chance to play for and West Coast have lost ten straight, so the winner is not the argument here. The 50.5 is. I have Hawthorn by 48, and a side that drew with Collingwood last week has to find another two and a half points on top of my number to beat that line in Perth.
AFL Round 24 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
WCE
$10.25
Sunday, August 23 • 7:20pm AEST
55 : 103
Optus Stadium
HAW
$1.05
Hawthorn Hawks by 48 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn Hawks by 48
Current Market
Hawthorn Hawks -50.5
2.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HHawthorn Hawks
$1.05
LINEWest Coast Eagles +50.5
$1.89
TOTALUnder 186.5 points
$1.87
MULTIHawthorn Hawks Win, Under 186.5 points & Dylan Moore Anytime Goal
$2.57
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Hawthorn Travel West With a Double Chance to Play For and West Coast Have Lost Ten Straight. Fifty and a Half Points Is Still Too Many to Lay.
There are two and a half points in this bet and nothing more. My 48 against their 50.5, and that is the whole thing.
Thin, and I am not dressing it up. But the Hawks have not looked like a blowout side for a fortnight, and Perth is not where I would expect that to change.
The team sheet does not move my 48
Jack Ginnivan is out with back soreness, with Jack Dalton coming in. That is a swap, not a shift in how this game gets played, and I am not going to pretend one change either way is worth two and a half points on the line. The bet is built on the number, not on who runs out.
Two and a half points is the whole bet
I have Hawthorn by 48 and the bookies want 50.5. That is the entire argument and it is a thin one. What tips it for me is that West Coast have kept two of their last five inside twenty points. That is not a pattern and I am not selling it as one, but a side getting run out of the ground every week does not do that at all.
Hawthorn have not been putting sides away
The Hawks drew with Collingwood a week ago and were beaten by 67 by Brisbane the round before. Their last two are a draw and a hiding, so there is nothing recent to say this is a side that turns up and wins by more than fifty.
The under is doing the same job
West Coast have not reached 100 points in five weeks and scoring has been the worst part of their year. I have this finishing 103 to 55. That is 158, well under 186.5, and it is the same picture as the margin bet: Hawthorn control it in their own half and the scoreboard never gets going.
What beats me is that they have already done it twice
These two have met twice and Hawthorn won by 50 and by 61, so the line is not asking for anything the Hawks have not already produced against this exact opponent. If they come out and play like they did in those two, the 50.5 goes down and I have no complaints.
West Coast vs Hawthorn Tip
I make it Hawthorn by 48 at Optus Stadium. That sits under the line, so I want West Coast and the 50.5 rather than laying it with the Hawks.
West Coast vs Hawthorn Key Stats
MARKS INSIDE 50
WCE10
HAW13
Hawthorn take the mark in front of goal and West Coast do not. Marking it there and turning it into a fifty point win are two different jobs, and the Hawks have not managed the second one in either of their last two.
HIT OUTS
WCE34
HAW44
First use at the stoppage belongs to Hawthorn, and winning the tap puts nothing on the scoreboard on its own. What it does is drag the game to their tempo, and their tempo has not produced a blowout in weeks.
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS
WCE205
HAW245
Hawthorn keep the ball and set the pace, and a side with the result already banked tends to hold it rather than keep kicking. That is how a win stays the wrong side of fifty.
West Coast vs Hawthorn Form Guide
West Coast Eagles
LLLLL
- R23: L 57-111 vs GWS Giants
- R22: L 98-117 vs Collingwood
- R21: L 73-84 vs Richmond
- R20: L 42-112 vs Fremantle
- R19: L 69-93 vs Brisbane Lions
Hawthorn Hawks
DLWWW
- R23: D 92-92 vs Collingwood
- R22: L 58-125 vs Brisbane Lions
- R21: W 99-83 vs North Melbourne
- R20: W 132-39 vs Essendon
- R19: W 122-52 vs Richmond
Michael’s Verdict
Hawthorn win, and I am not being clever about that part. The bet lives in the gap between my 48 and the 50.5, and I will take it because a side that drew last week and got beaten by 67 the week before is not my idea of one about to put fifty on anybody in Perth. Thin call. Making it anyway.
Our Bets
H2H Hawthorn Hawks$1.05
LINE West Coast Eagles +50.5$1.89
TOTAL Under 186.5 points$1.87
MULTI Hawthorn Hawks Win, Under 186.5 points & Dylan Moore Anytime Goal$2.57
Player Prop Predictions
Harry Morrison 20 or more disposals, $2.18. Harry Morrison landed it right on the number last start with 20, and that is 20 or more in four of his last seven. Hawthorn should have plenty of the footy at Optus Stadium and he only needs the same again at $2.18.
Dylan Moore to kick a goal, $1.31. Dylan Moore has goaled in three of his last four and four of his last seven, so this is the leg I am happy to build the multi around. If Hawthorn win by anything like the 48 I have them, the entries are there and $1.31 is the steady part of the bet.
Josh Ward to kick a goal, $3.10. Two goals last start for Josh Ward, the second time he has bagged a pair inside this seven game run. He has found the goals in four of those seven and $3.10 is a healthy price on a bloke hitting the scoreboard again.
Jai Newcombe 25 or more disposals, $1.42. Jai Newcombe has gone 28, 34, 25 and 24 across his last four, so his floor is sitting right on the line, and he has cleared 25 or more in four of his last seven. At $1.42 you are backing the volume to hold up.
Jobe Shanahan two or more goals, $2.15. Jobe Shanahan has kicked two or more in four of his last seven, and two of those were three goal games, so the ceiling is well established. West Coast copping a beating on my numbers still means chances at home, and $2.15 pays for that record.
The Props I Like
PROP Harry Morrison 20+ Disposals$2.18
PROP Dylan Moore Anytime Goal$1.31
PROP Josh Ward Anytime Goal$3.10
PROP Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals$1.42
PROP Jobe Shanahan 2+ Goals$2.15
Player Props MultiDylan Moore Anytime Goal, Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals & Jobe Shanahan 2+ Goals, my price $4.00
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Hawks |
| Date | Sunday, August 23 |
| Kick-off | 7:20pm AEST |
| Venue | Optus Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 24 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Hawthorn Hawks Win, Under 186.5 points & Dylan Moore Anytime Goal @ $2.57 |
| Predicted Score | West Coast Eagles 55 – Hawthorn Hawks 103 |
West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Hawks FAQs
Who will win West Coast vs Hawthorn?
I’m tipping Hawthorn by 48 points at Optus Stadium. My bet is West Coast at plus 50.5, because 48 sits under the line.
What is the best bet for West Coast vs Hawthorn in Round 24?
My headline multi at $2.57 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Dylan Moore Anytime Goal. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Where is the West Coast vs Hawthorn Round 24 match being played?
The match is at Optus Stadium in Perth, bouncing down at 7:20pm AEST (5:20pm local time) on Sunday 23 August 2026.
Who is West Coast Eagles playing next week?
West Coast’s season finishes in Round 24. They sit 16th and cannot reach the top 10, so there is no game for them on wildcard weekend.
Who is Hawthorn Hawks playing next week?
Hawthorn have the week off if they hold a top six spot after Round 24. If they slip out of the six they play a wildcard final on the weekend of 28 to 30 August.
