Collingwood vs Brisbane Prediction

AFL Round 24 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

COL

$3.70

Friday, August 21 • 7:40pm AEST

83 : 93

Melbourne Cricket Ground

BRL

$1.28

Brisbane Lions by 10 points

Model Predicted Margin

Brisbane Lions by 10

Current Market

Brisbane Lions -24.5

14.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HBrisbane Lions

$1.28

LINECollingwood Magpies +24.5

$1.89

TOTALUnder 183.5 points

$1.87

MULTICollingwood Magpies +24.5, Under 183.5 points & Darcy Wilmot 20+ Disposals

$5.73

Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet

Odds correct at time of posting

Collingwood Are Playing to Host a Final at the MCG. Brisbane Are Playing for a Week Off.

The market has got Brisbane right and Collingwood wrong. I make this 10, they have hung 24.5 on it.

Collingwood are playing to host a final at their own ground. Brisbane are playing for a week off, and they are in September whatever happens tonight. That gap is nowhere in the handicap, and it is the whole reason I am taking the points.

One of Them Needs This More Than the Other

A Collingwood win seals eighth and a home wildcard final at the MCG. Lose and they could be on a plane for one instead. A Brisbane win all but banks top four and the week off that comes with it.

Neither of them is a dead rubber, but the two prizes are not the same size. Collingwood are playing for where their September happens. Brisbane are playing for whether they get a rest before theirs. I know which of those I would rather be laying four goals with, and it is not the side already in.

Collingwood Have Picked Their Best Side

Jeremy Howe and Steele Sidebottom are both named, Howe back from an arm injury and Sidebottom after missing last week with illness. Nick Daicos is in as captain rather than being wrapped in cotton wool before finals. Isaac Quaynor is the one out, and the club expects him back for September.

That is a side picked to win a football match, not a side managing its way to next week. Read it as a firming of the case for Collingwood staying with them.

The Handicap Asks Too Much of Brisbane

Four goals is what the bookmakers want the Lions to win by. I have this at about 10 points.

Collingwood tackle harder than Brisbane do by a distance, and a side that hunts the ball carrier that hard does not usually let a game get away in a hurry. The winner and the margin are two different questions here, and only one of them is close.

These Two Do Not Play Shootouts

The total sits at 183.5 and two of the last three meetings between these two finished below it. The one that cleared the number needed 119 from Brisbane to do it.

That is the same argument as the line, said another way. Collingwood drag the game into the contest, and a game played in the contest does not hand anyone four goals.

The Case Against Me Is Real

Brisbane have won the last three against Collingwood, and the Round 4 one was by 54. They also put 95 on Gold Coast last start while the Magpies could only draw with Hawthorn. If you want to argue this gets ugly, the page gives you the evidence.

What is different is what is sitting on it. Collingwood host a final if they win and risk travelling for one if they lose, and they did not have that hanging over any of those three defeats.

Collingwood vs Brisbane Tip

I’m tipping Brisbane by about 10, because they are cleaner going forward, but Collingwood’s pressure keeps this well inside 24.5.

Collingwood vs Brisbane Key Stats

Collingwood vs Brisbane Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Beau McCreery to kick a goal, $2.12. Beau McCreery goaled again last start and has been on the board in four of his last seven, with two of those multiple goal games. Collingwood’s pressure keeps this scrappy and close, and that is the sort of game where his chances keep coming at $2.12.

Sam Draper to kick a goal, $1.86. Sam Draper has landed a goal in four of his past seven, and Brisbane are the cleaner side going forward in this one. A blank last start is the only reason he is still $1.86.

Darcy Wilmot 20 or more disposals, $1.62. Twenty three disposals last start says Darcy Wilmot is right back in rhythm, and he has hit 20 or more in four of his last seven. Brisbane controlling the footy is exactly how he gets there again, so $1.62 is a steady anchor.

Logan Morris three or more goals, $2.10. Four goals last start and four the game before that. Logan Morris has kicked three or more in four of his last seven, and with Brisbane tipped to be the cleaner side going forward the supply is there again at $2.10.

Levi Ashcroft to kick a goal, $2.95. He’s hit the scoreboard in four of his last seven.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

Up Next in the AFL

Today 7:40pm AEST Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Prediction Tomorrow 7:35pm AEST Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction