Storm vs Raiders Prediction

The Betting Edge

The bookies are backing the Storm hard at 63.43%, but our deeper numbers pull it back slightly, giving the Storm a 56.98% chance of taking the win. So there’s actually a bit of value around the Raiders at $2.60 if you’re chasing a roughie with a half decent chance of an upset.

That said, the Storm are still favourites for a reason, and they should have the edge if they bring their best game.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Here’s how the two teams compare based on the latest performance metrics:

• Predicted Final Score: Storm 32 – 20 Raiders
• Average Points For: Storm 32.86, Raiders 29.75 (Storm by 3.11 points)
• Average Points Against: Storm 21.71, Raiders 22.50 (Storm slightly better by 0.79 points)
• Win Percentage: Storm 71.43%, Raiders 75.00% (Raiders just ahead, but against slightly weaker opposition)
• Adjusted Points For: Storm 33.66, Raiders 27.85 (Storm comfortably better in attack)
• Adjusted Points Against: Storm 25.31, Raiders 26.58 (Storm again slightly ahead)
• Over/Under Tempo: 56.7 (Expect a fairly high-scoring, energetic match)
• Game Style Prediction: Grinder

What to do?

The Storm are sitting nicely in 3rd spot in the power rankings, while the Raiders are hanging around 7th, still strong, but about 4 spots behind the Storm.

Looking deeper, Melbourne has a better True Power Score (3.40 vs 6.20), showing they’ve been sharper overall, especially when the pressure’s on. They’ve also had slightly tougher opposition to deal with (average opponent rank 3.92 compared to 5.50) and still came out on top more often than not.

While the Raiders have been impressive and actually have a slightly higher win percentage, it’s come against weaker opposition based on opponent win rates (65.18% vs 57.59%). So don’t let the raw win % trick you, the Storm have been getting it done against better teams.

All up, the Storm deserve their favouritism, and with their attacking power and slightly tighter line, they should have enough to get past the Raiders. That said, if you’re looking for a bigger payout, a sneaky little play on the Raiders at $2.60 isn’t the worst idea!

Best bet here is to take the Storm -5.5, predicted margin is floating on the 12 point difference so it could go 1-12 or 13+, even though Storm are the home team they are technically not at home so expect a score lower than their home average.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Storm: 32.86, Raiders: 29.75 – (Storm by 3.11 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Storm: 21.71, Raiders: 22.50 – (Storm by 0.79 points)
• Power Rank: Storm: 3, Raiders: 7 – (Storm by 4)
• Average Winning Margin: Storm: 20.80, Raiders: 16.00 – (Storm by 4.8 points)
• SoS Adjusted Points For: Storm: 33.66, Raiders: 27.85 – (Storm by 5.81 points)
• Win Percentage: Storm: 71.43%, Raiders: 75.00% – (Raiders by 3.57%)
• Average Opponent Rank: Storm: 3.92, Raiders: 5.50 – (Storm by 1.58 ranks)
• Average Opponent Win %: Storm: 57.59%, Raiders: 65.18% – (Raiders by 7.59%)
• Average Opponent Points For: Storm: 26.01, Raiders: 27.12 – (Storm by 1.11 points)
• Highest Score For: Storm: 56.00, Raiders: 50.00 – (Storm by 6 points)
• Highest Score Against: Storm: 42.00, Raiders: 40.00 – (Raiders by 2 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Storm: 74.00, Raiders: 68.00 – (Storm by 6 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Storm: 22.00, Raiders: 38.00 – (Storm by 16 points)
• Adjusted Points For: Storm: 33.66, Raiders: 27.85 – (Storm by 5.81 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: Storm: 25.31, Raiders: 26.58 – (Storm by 1.27 points)
• True Power Score (Weighted): Storm: 3.40, Raiders: 6.20 – (Storm by 2.8 points)
• OVER/UNDER Tempo: 56.7
• Game Style Prediction: Grinder