Knights vs Storm Prediction

Game 2 of Round 18 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on July 12 features the Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm at McDonald Jones Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥

Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm Predictions

Saturday, July 12, 2025

3:00pm @ McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Final Score Prediction

Knights

15 : 29

Storm

Saturday afternoon sees the competition leaders descend upon Newcastle in what looms as a reality check for the struggling Knights.

The Storm machine continues to purr along nicely, and our model suggests they’ll maintain their ruthless form despite the hostile reception awaiting in the Hunter.

While the locals will bring passion and energy, class typically prevails in these encounters.

Win Percentages

Knights
30.28%

Storm
69.72%

The Market Assessment

Melbourne’s dominance is reflected in the betting, with the visitors firm $1.24 favourites against the $4.00 Knights.

The 12.5-point start seems generous on paper, but our model actually predicts a 14-point margin, suggesting the line might be spot on.

For value hunters, the margin markets offer the most appeal in what should be a controlled Storm performance.

Knights

Storm

The Class Divide

This matchup showcases the gulf between the competition’s elite and those fighting to stay relevant.

Melbourne’s systematic approach and championship DNA should prove too much for a Knights outfit still searching for consistency.

Our model tags this as a “value tip” – particularly in the alternative markets where better prices await.

Head-to-Head Analysis

The statistical mismatch tells the story before kickoff:

Ladder Position: Storm 1st vs Knights 11th
Attack: Storm averaging 17.5 more points per game
Defence: Melbourne’s defensive line virtually impenetrable
Recent Form: Storm winning streak vs Knights’ inconsistency
Historical Edge: Storm dominant in recent encounters

Game Style Prediction: Controlled Storm dominance
Expected Total: 44 points – Storm’s defence to strangle Knights

Our Betting Strategy

Value Play: Storm 13+

Storm 13+ @ $1.93

Our 14-point margin prediction aligns perfectly with this market. Better value than taking the Storm straight up at skinny odds.

Margin Special: Storm 1-12

@ $3.20

For the conservative punter, this band offers insurance against a Newcastle ambush while still capturing likely Storm victory margins.

Total Points: Under 46.5

@ $1.90

With Melbourne’s suffocating defence and our model predicting just 44 points, the under presents solid value in a grinding affair.

The Championship Blueprint

Melbourne don’t do surprises. They arrive, execute their game plan, and leave with the two points.

Newcastle’s best hope lies in turning this into a slugfest, but the Storm rarely take the bait.

Key Battle: The middle third will determine whether Newcastle can stay competitive. If the Storm’s forwards dominate early, this could get ugly quickly.