Game 3 of Round 18 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on July 12 features the St. George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters at Jubilee Stadium on Saturday evening. Get the latest NRL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥
St. George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters Predictions
Saturday, July 12, 2025
5:30pm @ Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
Dragons
Roosters
Saturday evening delivers a genuine 50-50 contest as the Dragons host the Roosters in what promises to be a nail-biter at Jubilee.
Our model has identified significant value in backing the home side, with the bookmakers potentially underestimating the Dragons’ chances.
This shapes as the type of game decided by a field goal or controversial refereeing decision in the dying stages.
Win Percentages
46.22%
53.78%
The Market Assessment
The Roosters enter as $1.50 favourites, but this pricing feels off given our model’s razor-thin margin prediction.
With the Dragons at $2.55 and our system showing just a 1-point difference, the value clearly lies with the Red V.
The 5.5-point line also appears generous given the expected closeness of this encounter.
The Jubilee Fortress
The Dragons have been tough to beat at home this season, and the passionate Jubilee crowd could prove the difference in a tight contest.
With both teams evenly matched across most metrics, home ground advantage looms as a crucial factor.
This is marked as a “value tip” – the perfect storm of odds meeting opportunity.
Head-to-Head Analysis
The numbers reveal just how close this contest shapes up:
- Power Rankings: Virtually identical at 14th vs 5th
- Attack: Roosters slight edge but Dragons dangerous at home
- Defence: Both teams capable of grinding out low-scoring wins
- Recent Form: Both sides inconsistent but capable of brilliance
- H2H History: Roosters edge but Dragons competitive at Jubilee
Game Style Prediction: Balanced moderate scoring affair
Our Betting Strategy
Value Play: Dragons Head-to-Head
Dragons @ $2.55
With our model predicting a Dragons victory and the odds offering tremendous value, this is the standout bet of the match.
The Danger Game
This has all the hallmarks of a match that defies logic and predictions. Both teams possess match-winners capable of producing moments of magic.
The Roosters’ experience in tight games gives them an edge, but the Dragons’ desperation at home could prove the x-factor.
Key Battle: Goal kicking could decide this thriller. With such a small margin expected, every conversion attempt becomes crucial.
The Bottom Line
The value screams Dragons at $2.55. Our model loves them to edge it by a point, making the head-to-head price impossible to ignore.
The 1-12 margin market at $4.00 offers even better returns for those backing our exact prediction.
In a game this close, take the home side with the value on their side.
Remember to gamble responsibly.
Related:
NRL Draw
Check the NRL Draw for upcoming NRL matches this season.
NRL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our NRL injury list.
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