Dolphins vs Dragons Prediction

Game 3 of Round 14 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on June 6 features the Dolphins vs Dragons at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥

Dolphins vs St. George Illawarra Dragons Predictions

Friday, June 6, 2025

8:00 pm @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Final Score Prediction

Dolphins

21 : 21

Dragons

Win Percentages

Dolphins
55.05%

Dragons
44.95%

Dolphins

Dragons

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head-to-head for the Dolphins set at $1.55, and $2.40 for the St. George Illawarra Dragons. This sets the bookmaker’s implied probability for both teams as follows:

Dolphins 60.76%
Dragons 39.24%

The Betting Edge

The market’s head-to-head at 60.76% for the Dolphins is higher than our model’s 55.05%, while the Dragons’ 39.24% implied is lower than our model’s 44.95%. In other words, the Dragons are undervalued. Back the Dragons head-to-head @ $2.40 for best value.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Here’s how the two teams compare based on the latest performance metrics:

Dolphins vs Dragons Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Dolphins by 2
AVG Points Against: Dolphins by 1.3
Power Rank: Dolphins by 5
Avg Winning Margin: Dolphins by 11
SoS Adjusted Points For: Dolphins by 2
Win %: Dragons by 4%
Average Opponent Rank: Dragons by 1
Average Opponent Win %: Dragons by 4%
Average Opponent Points For: Dragons by 2
Highest Score For: Dolphins by 6
Highest Score Against: Dolphins by 6
Highest Total Match Score: Dolphins by 4
Lowest Total Match Score: Dragons by 6
Adjusted Points For: Dolphins by 2
Adjusted Points Against: Dragons by 0
True Power Score (Weighted): Dolphins by 4.4
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 44.9
Game Style Prediction: Balanced Moderate Scoring
Avg Opposition Ladder Rank: Dolphins: 9; Dragons: 8
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Dolphins: 7.33; Dragons: 10.83

Over/Under Tempo: 44.9 – expect a balanced, moderate-scoring contest with both sides alternating sets and structured territory play.

Game Style Prediction: Balanced Moderate Scoring. Neither team overwhelms—look for an even contest where execution in key moments decides the winner.

What to do?

The market overvalues the Dolphins at 60.76% vs our model’s 55.05%. The Dragons, at 39.24%, represent solid value. Best bet: back Dragons head-to-head @ $2.40. Alternatively, if you want a safer play, take Dolphins –4.5 @ $1.90, but the true edge lies with the Dragons head-to-head.