Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Warriors vs Panthers Prediction
First against third at Go Media, and the Warriors have made this a hard trip for anyone. It has not stopped the Panthers before, and the halves news this week points the same way. I have Penrith winning it by more than the line.
NRL Round 23 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
WAR
$2.39
Friday, August 7 • 6:00pm AEST
17 : 25
Go Media Stadium
PEN
$1.58
Panthers by 8 points
Model Predicted Margin
Panthers by 8
Current Market
Panthers -4.5
3.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HPanthers to win
$1.58
LINEPanthers -4.5
$1.99
TOTALOver 40.5 points
$1.92
MULTIPanthers Win, Over 40.5 points & Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try
$6.98
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Warriors Are Breaking In A New Halfback Tonight. Penrith Are Not.
Both sides lost a half this week. The Warriors lost Te Maire Martin to a hamstring at training, so Luke Metcalf shifts into the starting side at halfback.
Penrith’s change is in the other half and Nathan Cleary is still named at seven. A lost half each, nowhere near the same cost.
Penrith keep winning in Auckland
The Warriors have made Go Media a genuinely hard trip, and it has not stopped the Panthers. They won the last two meetings on this ground, and neither of them was a scramble. A fortress argument only holds while somebody is actually losing in it.
Both lost a half, but not the same half
The Warriors are handing the seven jersey to a bloke who was not in the starting side last week, and he inherits the job of steering the back end of a tight game against this lot.
Penrith lost the other half and Nathan Cleary is still there, so the man who decides how their big moments get played is on the field. That is the whole difference and it is worth more than any line on the form guide.
The Warriors’ case is real, and here is my answer
Third on the ladder, a home record most clubs would take, and they put 42 on the Titans last start. The form guide on this page backs every word of that, and it is why the price is what it is.
But Auckland does not bother this Panthers side, and the Warriors are the ones sorting out a new halfback on the run.
The over is my loosest call
Both these sides put points on and a clear, calm Auckland night gives neither of them an excuse for a slow one.
The problem is Penrith’s defence, which is the tighter of the two by a clear margin, so the points have to come mostly from one end. I am still on the over, but it is line ball rather than soft, and it is the call I would let go first.
Warriors vs Panthers Tip
I have the Panthers by eight in Auckland, which clears the 4.5 with room. I am on the over 40.5 as well, but that one is line ball.
Warriors vs Panthers Key Stats
POINTS AGAINST
WAR16
PEN14
Penrith’s defence is why I want the line rather than just the win. They do not hand leads back late, so a break built in the second half is usually still there at full time.
KICK RETURN METRES
WAR172
PEN195
Penrith start their sets closer to halfway, so the Warriors spend the night defending a long way from where they want to be, and that is exactly the night a new halfback does not want.
POINTS FOR
WAR28
PEN31
Both sides put points on, and that is the entire case for the over. It is not a strong one at 40.5, because the tight end of this matchup is the one I am backing to win it.
Warriors vs Panthers Form Guide
New Zealand Warriors
LWWLW
- R17: L 24-26 vs Dolphins
- R19: W 32-6 vs Wests Tigers
- R20: W 20-12 vs Dragons
- R21: L 6-18 vs Bulldogs
- R22: W 42-6 vs Titans
Penrith Panthers
LWLWW
- R17: L 12-26 vs Cowboys
- R18: W 36-14 vs Rabbitohs
- R20: L 12-14 vs Broncos
- R21: W 24-18 vs Eels
- R22: W 42-18 vs Raiders
Ben’s Verdict
The Warriors are a good side having a good year and they are still second best here. Back the Panthers to win it by more than the 4.5. The over is along for the ride and I would not be talking anyone out of leaving it off. The risk is Auckland turning it into a grind, because a low scoring arm wrestle is the one shape that beats both of my main calls at once.
Our Bets
H2H Panthers to win$1.58
LINE Panthers -4.5$1.99
TOTAL Over 40.5 points$1.92
MULTI Panthers Win, Over 40.5 points & Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try$6.98
Player Prop Predictions
Thomas Jenkins to score two or more tries, $3.75. Two last start, and there is a three sitting in that run as well, so multiples are clearly in him. He has landed the double in three of his last six and $3.75 is generous with the Panthers winning by eight.
Liam Henry to score a try, $6.25. He has crossed in back to back games now and in three of his last six, which is a lot better than $6.25 reads. At that price he only has to find one.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira to score a try, $2.20. One last start, a double earlier in the run, and a try in three of his last five. Even in a beaten side the Warriors will get their moments and $2.20 is fair on that strike rate.
Liam Martin to score a try, $3.50. Two tries last start is the number that jumps out, and that makes it a try in three of his last five. With the Panthers eight better in Auckland, $3.50 is plenty.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to score a try, $2.30. A try in four of his last six, including last start, and that is exactly the sort of steady run I want anchoring the multi. Short at $2.30 for good reason.
The Props I Like
PROP Thomas Jenkins 2+ Tries$3.75
PROP Liam Henry Anytime Try$6.25
PROP Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try$2.20
PROP Liam Martin Anytime Try$3.50
PROP Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try$2.30
Player Props MultiDallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try, Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try & Liam Martin Anytime Try, my price $17.71
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers |
| Date | Friday, August 7 |
| Kick-off | 6:00pm AEST |
| Venue | Go Media Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 23 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Panthers Win, Over 40.5 points & Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try @ $6.98 |
| Predicted Score | New Zealand Warriors 17 – Penrith Panthers 25 |
New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers FAQs
Who will win Warriors vs Panthers?
I am tipping the Panthers. The Warriors are breaking in a new halfback this week and Penrith are not, and Penrith have won the last two times they came to Auckland.
What is the best bet in Warriors vs Panthers?
My headline multi at $6.98 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Will Warriors vs Panthers be a high scoring game?
I think it goes over 40.5, but it is line ball rather than a soft total. My scoreline is 17-25, which is 42, so it gets there by a point and a half. Penrith’s defence is the tightest part of this matchup, so back the over knowing that is the leg carrying the risk.
Who is New Zealand Warriors playing next week?
The Warriors play the Broncos - at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday 15 August in NRL Round 24.
Who is Penrith Panthers playing next week?
The Panthers play the Roosters - at CommBank Stadium on Thursday 13 August in NRL Round 24.
