Warriors vs Dolphins Prediction

NRL Qualifying Final • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

WAR

$1.61

Saturday, September 12 • 4:05pm AEST

26 : 23

Go Media Stadium

DOL

$2.33

Warriors by 3 points

Model Predicted Margin

Warriors by 3

Current Market

Warriors -3.5

0.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HWarriors to win

$1.61

LINEDolphins +3.5

$1.98

TOTALOver 46.5 points

$1.90

MULTIWarriors Win, Over 46.5 points & Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try

$5.38

Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365

Odds correct at time of posting

The Warriors are the better side and they should win this. I still want the Dolphins holding the three and a half, and the over with it.

Two teams, thirteen straight wins between them, and a head to head sitting dead level at four apiece. The Warriors are the better side and the market is right to price them that way. That is exactly why I want the points rather than the winner, and why the over goes with it: my scoreline gets there without needing anything unusual to happen.

Teams are in and nothing changed

The Dolphins have named their strongest available side, with Selwyn Cobbo, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Kodi Nikorima all back after a week off to clear up niggles. A side that rested three of its best and won anyway is not one you give points to lightly. The Warriors get Jackson Ford back for the first time since a pectoral injury in the middle of the year, and they are still without Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Luke Metcalf, Rocco Berry, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Tanah Boyd. None of that shifted the bet for me.

Six meetings is a small sample and it is still the best thing I have

These two have met six times since 2024 and the margins were two, two, two, four, two and four. Four of those six would have paid the Dolphins at three and a half, and the two that would not were both four point Warriors wins. Six games is a small sample and I am not going to pretend it is more than that, but a fixture does not stay that tight by accident.

The points are where the real room is

I have this landing in the high forties and the market has set forty six and a half. Both of these attacks have been productive all season and the Dolphins are at full strength for it. A tight game between two sides who both score is not the same thing as a low scoring one, and this fixture keeps ending in games decided by a single score rather than in arm wrestles.

Where this goes wrong

The risk that actually beats me is the Warriors defence. They have been the stingier side of the pair all year, and if they get an early roll on at home this becomes a comfortable win and both legs go with it. That is the one I am worried about, ahead of everything else. Showers are forecast and wet hands take points off a total, but that sits second on my list, not first.

Warriors vs Dolphins Tip

I have the Warriors home by three, and I am not going to sell you half a point off the line as value. The reason for the Dolphins on the three and a half is that these two do not get away from each other.

Warriors vs Dolphins Key Stats

Warriors vs Dolphins Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad to score a try, $2.00. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad crossed twice last start, which makes it a try in three of his last six games. He has found the line just as the Warriors need him to, and $2.00 on that form reads fair.

Alofiana Khan-Pereira to score a try, $1.76. Alofiana Khan-Pereira was over in three games straight through the middle of that run and has a try in four of his last seven all up. In a match I have the Warriors winning by three, he is the leg I am happy to build the multi around at $1.76.

Jacob Laban to score a try, $3.75. Jacob Laban banged on a double two games back and has hit the line in four of his last seven. Tight games throw up scrappy tries, and $3.75 for a bloke getting there that often is a proper price.

Herbie Farnworth to score a try, $2.65. Herbie Farnworth scored again last start and that is three of his last four, a double included. If the Dolphins hang inside the three and a half the way I think they will, he is a big part of the reason. $2.65.

Leka Halasima to score a try, $2.65. Leka Halasima went back to back with a try before drawing a blank last start, and it is three of his last seven overall. These two never get away from each other, so the close range chances will be there, and $2.65 pays for one of them.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.