Roosters vs Knights Grand Final Betting Tips & Prediction
The Knights have earned this, and I still cannot get…
State of Origin Game 3 Prediction
A shield on the line at Suncorp and the Maroons priced like the job is already done. We make this a four point game against a line north of five, and that gap is where the value sits for the Blues and the unders.
State of Origin Game 3 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
QLD
$1.55
Wednesday, July 8 • 8:05pm
20 : 16
Suncorp Stadium
NSW
$2.50
Queensland Maroons by 4 points
Model Predicted Margin
Queensland Maroons by 4
Current Market
Queensland Maroons -5.5
1.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HQueensland Maroons to win
$1.55
LINENSW Blues +5.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 44.5 points
$1.84
MULTIMaroons H2H, Blues +5.5 & Under 44.5
$5.42
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
Queensland Have Won Six of the Past Eight Deciders at Suncorp. The Line Says a Cruise, We Say a Scrap.
One win each, one night in Brisbane for the shield. Queensland flipped this series on its head after half time at the MCG and they come home with all the momentum, a hostile crowd, and a score to settle from Game 1.
History is with the hosts too. Queensland have won six of the eight deciders played at Suncorp since 2005, and the bookies have priced that pedigree into a line north of five.
That number is where we get off. We make this a four point game, and a four point game with the hosts giving up five and a half means the value is with the visitors, win or lose. Deciders are decided in the trenches, not on the scoreboard’s far end.
The risk is the obvious one. Queensland put 36 points on after the break in Melbourne, and if that half of footy walks into Suncorp the line and the total are both cooked by the hour mark.
But that half was the outlier, not the pattern. Origin deciders are arm wrestles far more often than they are shootouts, and everything about this one says tight, low and nasty. Queensland get it done. The Blues keep them honest.
Queensland Maroons vs NSW Blues Tip
Queensland by 4 in a decider that stays tight and low: the Maroons lift the shield but the Blues cover the line.
Queensland Maroons vs NSW Blues Key Stats
COMPOSITE POWER RATING
QLD1546
NSW1569
Club form weighted by position has the two 17s close to even with the Blues a nose in front, which is why a line north of five looks too wide.
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
QLD67%
NSW33%
Suncorp and decider pedigree make Queensland clear favourites to lift the shield, just without the margin to match.
RECENT SERIES WON (LAST SIX)
QLD4
NSW2
Queensland own the recent ledger, and four of those six series went all the way to a live decider.
Queensland Maroons vs NSW Blues Form Guide
Queensland Maroons
LWWLW
- 2021: series lost
- 2022: series won
- 2023: series won
- 2024: series lost
- 2025: series won
New South Wales Blues
WLLWL
- 2021: series won
- 2022: series lost
- 2023: series lost
- 2024: series won
- 2025: series lost
Ben’s Verdict
The scoreline we land on is Queensland 20-16, and every bet we like flows from that exact shape of game. Take the Maroons for the shield, the Blues at the line, and keep the points in the unders.
Our Bets
H2H Queensland Maroons to win$1.55
LINE NSW Blues +5.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 44.5 points$1.84
MULTI Maroons H2H, Blues +5.5 & Under 44.5$5.42
Key Facts
| Match | Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues |
| Date | Wednesday, July 8 |
| Kick-off | 8:05pm AEST |
| Venue | Suncorp Stadium |
| Round | State of Origin Game 3 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Maroons Multi: H2H + Blues +5.5 + Under 44.5 @ $5.42 |
| Predicted Score | Queensland Maroons 20 – New South Wales Blues 16 |
Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues FAQs
Who will win Queensland Maroons vs NSW Blues in State of Origin Game 3?
We tip Queensland to win the decider, around 20-16. Suncorp has hosted eight series deciders since 2005 and the Maroons have won six, though the most recent one there went the way of the Blues.
What is the best bet for State of Origin Game 3?
The value is NSW Blues +5.5 at $1.90. We price the margin at four points, so even a Queensland win most likely leaves the Blues covering, and Under 44.5 at $1.84 backs the same tight read.
Where and when is State of Origin Game 3 2026 being played?
The decider is at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Wednesday 8 July 2026, kicking off at 8:05pm AEST. It is the first series decider in Brisbane since 2024.
