Roosters vs Knights Grand Final Betting Tips & Prediction
The Knights have earned this, and I still cannot get…
State of Origin Game 2 Prediction
The Blues lead the series one to nil and start favourites for the middle game at a neutral Melbourne venue. Our model disagrees with how far the market has them out in front: it reads a one-point game, so the value lands on Queensland covering the start at plus the points.
State of Origin Game 2 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
NSW
$1.82
Wednesday, June 17 • 8:05pm
19 : 18
Melbourne Cricket Ground
QLD
$2.01
New South Wales Blues by 1 points
Model Predicted Margin
New South Wales Blues by 1
Current Market
New South Wales Blues -2.5
1.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Queensland Maroons +2.5 @ $1.81
Model value at this price
Model has the margin inside a point, so the underdog covers the start
Best BetTOTAL POINTS
Under 42.5 @ $1.90
Model value at this price
Model total of 37 sits well under the line; a tight arm-wrestle stays low
MultiSAME GAME MULTI
Maroons +2.5 + Under 42.5 @ $3.44 est
Claim This Tip at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
A one-point game on a neutral deck, and the real value is hiding with the underdog
We roll into the middle game with the Blues one up and the series on the line for Queensland. The opener went the way of NSW by the barest margin, and nothing about this one says the gap is about to widen.
Our numbers give NSW the edge through the spine and the forward pack, the two areas that decide this arena more than any other. A neutral Melbourne deck takes the home roar out of it, which only sharpens an evenly matched contest.
Here is the catch. The model rates this the tightest of contests, with a predicted total sitting well under the line the bookies have posted. A low-scoring arm-wrestle is exactly where an underdog covers the start, so the Maroons at plus the points are the play even though we lean NSW to win the game itself.
Origin rarely respects recent series form, and Queensland have owned the bulk of the past six. But it is the rep ratings, not the history, that drive our read, and they point to a coin flip that the market has priced a shade too one-sided.
NSW Blues vs Queensland Maroons Tip
The model lands on the narrowest of margins here, and that is exactly why the value sits with the underdog on the line. Take the Maroons and the start: even if the Blues nick it late, plus the points still cashes.
NSW Blues vs Queensland Maroons Key Stats
COMPOSITE POWER RATING
NSW1579
QLD1532
Our representative ratings give the Blues a clear edge across the board heading into the middle game.
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
NSW54%
QLD46%
Close to a coin flip, which is why the model sees the favourite as a shade short on the line.
RECENT SERIES WON (LAST SIX)
NSW2
QLD4
Queensland have taken four of the past six, but this arena rarely follows the last series.
NSW Blues vs Queensland Maroons Form Guide
New South Wales Blues
LWLLWL
- 2020: series lost
- 2021: series won
- 2022: series lost
- 2023: series lost
- 2024: series won
- 2025: series lost
Queensland Maroons
WLWWLW
- 2020: series won
- 2021: series lost
- 2022: series won
- 2023: series won
- 2024: series lost
- 2025: series won
Final Verdict
This shapes as an arm-wrestle on a neutral deck, and the market has the favourite a touch too far out in front. We will take the points with the underdog and let a tight night do the rest.
LOCK IT IN: Queensland Maroons +2.5 @ $1.81
Take the value the model sees here.
Key Facts
| Match | New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons |
| Date | Wednesday, June 17 |
| Kick-off | 8:05pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | State of Origin Game 2 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Queensland Maroons +2.5 @ $1.81 |
| Predicted Score | New South Wales Blues 19 – Queensland Maroons 18 |
New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons FAQs
Who will win NSW Blues vs Queensland Maroons in State of Origin Game 2?
Our model tips the Blues to edge a tight one, roughly 19 to 18. With NSW already one up in the series, a win would wrap it up, but the value on the line is with the underdog.
What is the best bet for State of Origin Game 2?
The model’s best bet is Queensland plus 2.5 on the line at $1.81. It reads the game inside a single point, so the underdog only has to keep it close to cover the start.
Where and when is State of Origin Game 2 being played?
Game 2 is at a neutral Melbourne venue on Wednesday night, with kick-off at 8:05pm. The neutral deck takes the usual home crowd factor out of the contest.
