Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Sea Eagles vs Dolphins Prediction
The Dolphins are the better side. They sit fifth, they have won three on the bounce and they knocked over the Broncos last start, while the Sea Eagles have lost five straight. So the market has done the obvious thing and asked for nearly ten points. That is where it has gone too far.
NRL Round 24 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
MAN
$3.25
Friday, August 14 • 6:00pm AEST
21 : 22
4 Pines Park
DOL
$1.35
Dolphins by 1 point
Model Predicted Margin
Dolphins by 1
Current Market
Dolphins -9.5
8.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HDolphins to win
$1.35
LINEEagles +9.5
$1.93
TOTALUnder 50.5 points
$1.89
MULTIEagles +9.5, Under 50.5 points & Tolutau Koula Anytime Try
$9.85
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Sea Eagles Have Beaten The Dolphins Three Times In Four, The Last One 52-18 This Season. Nine And A Half Points Is Too Many.
Fifth against tenth, and there are two bets sitting in that. Who wins, and by how much.
Only the second one interests me.
Team news: nothing in it changes the bet
Both sides named as expected. Clayton Faulalo comes back in for the Sea Eagles. The Dolphins named an unchanged starting side from the one that beat the Broncos, with Ray Stone back on the bench in place of Kurt Donoghoe, who is out after thumb surgery. Both sides have named their strongest available 17, so nine and a half reads the same now as it did before the sheets dropped.
This matchup has never read the ladder
The Sea Eagles have won three of the last four against the Dolphins, and the most recent one was this season, 52-18. That is not ancient history and it is not a fluke of the draw. Form has not decided this fixture, the matchup has. I want the points with the home side and I am not going to keep repeating myself about it.
Manly’s collapse is the risk and I am not hiding it
Five straight losses, and last weekend they led the Storm 14-0 before conceding 42 unanswered. A side that fragile can lose by twenty, and if that happens the line bet is gone inside an hour. They sit four points off the eighth placed Cowboys so the season is not dead on paper, but I am not betting on desperation. What holds me is the fixture and the shape of the game: Manly complete their sets, and a side that completes forces the other mob to build their points from deep. That is a slow night, and a slow night is a covered line.
The total is the thinnest thing on this page
I have this in the low forties and the market wants fifty and a half. Before you get excited, look at the scorelines above: three of Manly’s last five have gone past that number and the Dolphins have been in some wild ones. It is the leg I am least sure of, which is exactly why it is not in my single. I expect a scrappy arm wrestle rather than a shootout, but I am not staking the bet on it.
Eagles vs Dolphins Tip
The bet is the Sea Eagles +9.5 at $1.93. I have the Dolphins winning tonight, but by a single point, because Manly keep turning this fixture over no matter where the two sides sit on the ladder.
Eagles vs Dolphins Key Stats
KICK RETURN METRES
MAN155
DOL207
The Dolphins start their sets closer to halfway, and that is where a blowout comes from. If Manly spend the night defending their own end the handicap is gone. This is the risk I am wearing, not a reason to back them.
COMPLETION RATE
MAN79
DOL77
Manly’s whole cover case is possession. Complete your sets and the visitors have to build everything from deep, which is the version of this game that stays inside the number.
TACKLE BREAKS
MAN30
DOL35
This is the bar that cuts against me. The Dolphins break more tackles, and broken field is how a nine point game turns into a twenty point one.
Eagles vs Dolphins Form Guide
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
LLLLL
- R18: L 14-23 vs Eels
- R19: L 18-19 vs Cowboys
- R20: L 32-38 vs Titans
- R21: L 12-48 vs Sharks
- R23: L 20-42 vs Storm
The Dolphins
LLWWW
- R18: L 12-13 vs Knights
- R19: L 0-66 vs Sharks
- R20: W 36-16 vs Cowboys
- R22: W 28-22 vs Dragons
- R23: W 40-32 vs Broncos
Ben’s Verdict
The Dolphins are the better team and they should win this. I just will not give up nine and a half points to a side that keeps beating them, at home, in a game that shapes slow. Take the Sea Eagles +9.5 at $1.93, one leg, and let the Dolphins have the result.
Our Bets
H2H Dolphins to win$1.35
LINE Eagles +9.5$1.93
TOTAL Under 50.5 points$1.89
MULTI Eagles +9.5, Under 50.5 points & Tolutau Koula Anytime Try$9.85
Player Prop Predictions
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to score a try, $1.86. Two tries last start says he is right on song, and that is a try in two of his last four. At $1.86 you are backing form that is trending the right way.
Selwyn Cobbo to score two or more tries, $3.20. He has already put up doubles twice in his last four, so two or more is well within him, and he got on the board again last start. $3.20 for a bloke who does it this often is the value on the page.
Herbie Farnworth to score a try, $2.30. Back on the scoresheet last start after a quiet run, and that makes it a try in three of his last seven. In a game I have decided by a single point, he only needs one.
Connelly Lemuelu to score a try, $3.45. A double last start is the number that matters here. A try in three of his last seven and he is out at $3.45, which is generous for someone coming off a two try night.
Tolutau Koula to score a try, $2.70. Three straight games with a try and four in his last six. Manly keep turning this fixture over and Tolutau Koula is the bloke doing the damage, so $2.70 is the steady anchor.
The Props I Like
PROP Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try$1.86
PROP Selwyn Cobbo 2+ Tries$3.20
PROP Herbie Farnworth Anytime Try$2.30
PROP Connelly Lemuelu Anytime Try$3.45
PROP Tolutau Koula Anytime Try$2.70
Player Props MultiTolutau Koula Anytime Try, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try & Selwyn Cobbo 2+ Tries, my price $16.07
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles vs The Dolphins |
| Date | Friday, August 14 |
| Kick-off | 6:00pm AEST |
| Venue | 4 Pines Park |
| Round | NRL Round 24 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Eagles +9.5, Under 50.5 points & Tolutau Koula Anytime Try @ $9.85 |
| Predicted Score | Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 21 – The Dolphins 22 |
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles vs The Dolphins FAQs
Who will win Sea Eagles vs Dolphins?
I have the Dolphins winning, but only by a point. They sit fifth and have won three in a row, while the Sea Eagles have lost five straight and sit tenth. The winner and the bet are not the same thing here.
What is the best bet in Sea Eagles vs Dolphins?
My headline multi at $9.85 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Tolutau Koula Anytime Try. On its own, Eagles +9.5 at $1.93 is the anchor.
Why back a side that has lost five straight?
Because I am not backing them to win. I am backing them to stay within nine and a half at home in a fixture they have owned, and they hold the ball well enough to keep the game slow. If they fold the way they did against the Storm the bet is gone, and that is the risk you are taking.
Will Sea Eagles vs Dolphins be a high scoring game?
I do not think so. I have it in the low forties, so the under 50.5 at $1.89 stacks up on my read, but it is not my bet. It only turns up in the longer price multi, and it is the leg I am least sure of, because three of Manly’s last five went past that mark.
Who is Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles playing next week?
The Sea Eagles play the Knights - at McDonald Jones Stadium on Saturday 22 August in NRL Round 25.
Who is The Dolphins playing next week?
The Dolphins play the Eels - at Suncorp Stadium on Friday 21 August in NRL Round 25.
