Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Raiders vs Knights Prediction
Six meetings in a row between these two have finished under 45.5 points, and only one of them got within two points of the number. That is where my money goes on Sunday. I’ll take the Raiders to grind out a narrow one at GIO as well, but the total is the bet I actually want.
NRL Round 23 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
CBR
$1.91
Sunday, August 9 • 2:00pm AEST
22 : 19
GIO Stadium Canberra
NEW
$1.93
Raiders by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
Raiders by 3
Current Market
Raiders -0.5
2.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HRaiders to win
$1.91
LINERaiders -0.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 45.5 points
$1.99
MULTIRaiders Win, Under 45.5 points & Xavier Savage Anytime Try
$7.79
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
Six Meetings In A Row Between These Two Have Finished Under 45.5. That Is The Bet, Not The Winner.
Twenty one wins each from forty three meetings. The winner here is close to a coin toss, and I am not paying up for a coin toss. The scoreboard is the softer number.
Newcastle have won the last two at GIO
The last two meetings between these two at GIO Stadium both went to Newcastle, and the most recent meeting anywhere was a twenty point Knights win. That is the honest case against me and I am not going to explain it away.
What I will say is that Canberra are in different shape now. Four wins from their last five, the two heaviest of them nowhere near close, and Simi Sasagi back from a hamstring strain to fill a centre spot. That is enough for me to have the home side small. It is not enough for me to build the bet around them, which is the whole reason the total is the headline here.
The total is the strongest number on the card
Every one of the last six meetings between these two finished under 45.5 points, and only one of them got within two points of the number. Add a cold Canberra afternoon with rain about and I want the unders.
The risk is real and it sits with the home side. Canberra themselves have sailed past that number in all but one of their last five, so I am backing the fixture ahead of the recent scoreboards. When these two get hold of each other it turns into a wrestle, and wrestles do not post big numbers.
Newcastle are playing for their season
The word this week is that a win in Canberra all but clinches a finals spot for Newcastle, and they arrive off a big win over Brisbane with Tyson Frizell starting in the front row.
Their three losses before that came by two, two and one point. This is not a side falling apart, which is exactly why the head to head market sits close to even money and why I am not leaning on that leg.
Raiders vs Knights Tip
The under 45.5 at GIO. This fixture does not turn into a shootout, and nothing in the forecast is about to change that.
Raiders vs Knights Key Stats
ERRORS
CBR11
NEW12
The one edge I trust. Canberra look after the football and Newcastle cough it up, and in a game this tight the cheap set handed over is the one that costs you.
LINE BREAKS
CBR4
NEW6
This is the bar that cuts against me. Newcastle carry the more dangerous edge, and one clean break beats the total on its own.
KICK RETURN METRES
CBR176
NEW158
Newcastle have to travel a long way to score here, and sides made to grind out their points that way do not put big scores on the board.
Raiders vs Knights Form Guide
Canberra Raiders
WWWWL
- R17: W 24-16 vs Dragons
- R19: W 40-16 vs Bulldogs
- R20: W 34-24 vs Rabbitohs
- R21: W 56-10 vs Wests Tigers
- R22: L 18-42 vs Panthers
Newcastle Knights
WLLLW
- R18: W 13-12 vs Dolphins
- R19: L 24-26 vs Rabbitohs
- R20: L 18-20 vs Sharks
- R21: L 22-23 vs Roosters
- R22: W 30-6 vs Broncos
Ben’s Verdict
The under 45.5 is the bet. This fixture has landed there six times running and I would want a better reason than one loud scoreline to walk away from it.
The Raiders win is the extra, and it is the smaller stake. Four wins from their last five is why I have them at all. Newcastle have won their last two here and they are playing for a finals spot, so I am not pretending that leg is safe. If you only want one thing out of this game, take the under.
Our Bets
H2H Raiders to win$1.91
LINE Raiders -0.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 45.5 points$1.99
MULTI Raiders Win, Under 45.5 points & Xavier Savage Anytime Try$7.79
Player Prop Predictions
Kalyn Ponga to score a try, $2.80. A double three starts back and another the week after says he scores in bunches, and he has crossed in two of his last four. In a game where tries are scarce, $2.80 is the right price on the bloke most likely to make one himself.
Xavier Savage to score a try, $2.05. A try in four of his last seven, and Canberra do not need a big scoreline for him to get there. That record at $2.05 is why he is the prop I want alongside the under.
Dominic Young to score a try, $1.94. One last start and one the week before, so he is over back to back, with a try in three of his last seven all up. Shortest of the Newcastle try prices at $1.94 and it looks fair.
The Props I Like
PROP Kalyn Ponga Anytime Try$2.80
PROP Xavier Savage Anytime Try$2.05
PROP Dominic Young Anytime Try$1.94
Player Props MultiXavier Savage Anytime Try, Kalyn Ponga Anytime Try & Dominic Young Anytime Try, my price $11.14
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights |
| Date | Sunday, August 9 |
| Kick-off | 2:00pm AEST |
| Venue | GIO Stadium Canberra |
| Round | NRL Round 23 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Raiders Win, Under 45.5 points & Xavier Savage Anytime Try @ $7.79 |
| Predicted Score | Canberra Raiders 22 – Newcastle Knights 19 |
Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights FAQs
What is the best bet in Raiders vs Knights?
My headline multi at $7.79 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Xavier Savage Anytime Try. The under does the heavy lifting this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Who will win Raiders vs Knights?
I’m on the Raiders, but only just, and it is the smaller part of my bet. I make it a three point game. The winner is close to a coin toss and the coin toss is not what I am paying for.
Can the Knights win at GIO Stadium?
They can, and they have, twice in a row. I am not talking my way around that. Newcastle arrive with a finals spot within reach and the head to head market is close to even money, which is exactly why I want the total more than I want the winner.
Does the under still stand if the weather clears?
Yes. The rain is a bonus, not the case. The case is the way these two play each other, and dry weather does not change how they defend.
What is the late mail for Raiders vs Knights?
Simi Sasagi comes back from a hamstring strain into a centre spot for Canberra, and Tyson Frizell starts in the front row for Newcastle. Nothing in the lists moves me off the under.
Who is Canberra Raiders playing next week?
The Raiders play the Sharks - at Ocean Protect Stadium on Saturday 15 August in NRL Round 24.
Who is Newcastle Knights playing next week?
The Knights play the Titans - at McDonald Jones Stadium on Sunday 16 August in NRL Round 24.
