Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Rabbitohs vs Warriors Prediction
The bet is the Rabbitohs and the 4.5. I have the Warriors winning this, I just do not have them winning it by five, and Souths at home with David Fifita and Cameron Murray back through the middle is not a side you hand four and a half points to.
NRL Round 25 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
SOU
$2.41
Saturday, August 22 • 5:30pm AEST
19 : 23
Accor Stadium
WAR
$1.57
Warriors by 4 points
Model Predicted Margin
Warriors by 4
Current Market
Warriors -4.5
0.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HWarriors to win
$1.57
LINERabbitohs +4.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 45.5 points
$1.90
MULTIWarriors Win, Under 45.5 points & Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try
$5.16
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Warriors Are On Their Fourth Halfback Of The Year With A Bloke In His Second NRL Game Beside Him. Four And A Half Points Is Not Enough Room For A Souths Side At Home.
I have the Warriors by four and the line asks for five, so this one is half a point wide and that is the honest size of it. What gets me on it is Chanel Harris-Tavita and Luke Hanson steering the Warriors around on a Saturday evening in Sydney, against a Souths side that has its pack back together.
What the Souths team sheet gives them back
Wayne Bennett’s side has found its form since David Fifita and Cameron Murray came back, and that is a different middle to the one that was getting rolled a month ago. Latrell Mitchell was named on the extended bench but is not in the final side, so the pack coming back together is all Souths get here.
The Warriors halves have not played together
Chanel Harris-Tavita is the fourth man to start at halfback for the Warriors this season, with Luke Metcalf sidelined until the finals by a hamstring, and Luke Hanson lines up beside him in only his second NRL game. A pairing feeling its way is what turns a comfortable win into a scrappy one, and scrappy is all my line bet needs.
The case against: they have been winning big
Three in a row and the last two were not close, so backing anyone to stay within four and a half of this Warriors side takes some nerve. That is real and I am not stepping around it. At $1.90 I will still take the coin toss when the side getting the points is at home and playing for its season.
Why the points stay down
The Warriors give up a good deal less than Souths do, and that is the other half of why I have this game finishing in the low forties. Halves feeling their way and a home side that has to grind out a finals spot is not the recipe for a shootout, so the under sits on the card as an extra.
Rabbitohs vs Warriors Tip
Rabbitohs +4.5 at $1.90 at Accor. I have the Warriors by four, and four does not get four and a half done.
Rabbitohs vs Warriors Key Stats
POINTS AGAINST
SOU24
WAR16
This one carries the whole read. The Warriors defend and Souths leak, which is why I have the Warriors winning it and why I have the total finishing where it does.
KICK RETURN METRES
SOU167
WAR177
The Warriors start their sets further up the field, and that is how a side who cannot yet build pressure through the halves still finds a way to win without ever looking fluent.
Rabbitohs vs Warriors Form Guide
South Sydney Rabbitohs
LWLWW
- R20: L 24-34 vs Raiders
- R21: W 28-26 vs Storm
- R22: L 16-32 vs Sharks
- R23: W 28-24 vs Eels
- R24: W 22-6 vs Bulldogs
New Zealand Warriors
WLWWW
- R20: W 20-12 vs Dragons
- R21: L 6-18 vs Bulldogs
- R22: W 42-6 vs Titans
- R23: W 28-12 vs Panthers
- R24: W 40-6 vs Broncos
Ben’s Verdict
Rabbitohs +4.5 is the bet. The Warriors head to head and the under 45.5 are the extras that ride with it. The risk is the Warriors treating Souths the way they treated the last two and having this finished by half time. But a side breaking in halves away from home, against a team fighting to hold its spot in the eight, is not my idea of a blowout.
Our Bets
H2H Warriors to win$1.57
LINE Rabbitohs +4.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 45.5 points$1.90
MULTI Warriors Win, Under 45.5 points & Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try$5.16
Player Prop Predictions
Tallis Duncan to score a try, $3.15. He’s crossed for a try in three of his last six.
Chanel Harris-Tavita to score a try, $2.75. Chanel Harris-Tavita has scored in each of his last four, a try in four of his last seven all up. Form like that doesn’t usually come with a $2.75 next to it.
Jacob Laban to score a try, $4.00. Jacob Laban went over last start, and it’s a try in three of his last seven for him. The Warriors should be doing enough attacking at Accor to hand him another one, and $4.00 pays for the patchy weeks in between.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to score a try, $1.73. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak scored again last start and that’s a try in four of his last six. He’s the steady one here, and $1.73 is what a bloke gets when he keeps turning up.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira to score a try, $1.78. Alofiana Khan-Pereira touched down last start and has a try in four of his last six, with a double in there too. I’ve got the Warriors winning this one, and he tends to be on the end of it at $1.78.
The Props I Like
PROP Tallis Duncan Anytime Try$3.15
PROP Chanel Harris-Tavita Anytime Try$2.75
PROP Jacob Laban Anytime Try$4.00
PROP Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try$1.73
PROP Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try$1.78
Player Props MultiDallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try, Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Try & Chanel Harris-Tavita Anytime Try, my price $8.47
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors |
| Date | Saturday, August 22 |
| Kick-off | 5:30pm AEST |
| Venue | Accor Stadium |
| Final | NRL Round 25 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Warriors Win, Under 45.5 points & Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try @ $5.16 |
| Predicted Score | South Sydney Rabbitohs 19 – New Zealand Warriors 23 |
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors FAQs
Who will win Rabbitohs vs Warriors?
The Warriors. I have them by 4 at Accor Stadium, which does not cover a 4.5 point line, so the Rabbitohs and the points is my bet. The Warriors are third and chasing a home final, Souths are seventh with three games to play.
What is the best bet for Rabbitohs vs Warriors?
My headline multi at $5.16 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Will Rabbitohs vs Warriors go over 45.5 points?
I do not think so. I have the game finishing around 42 points in total. A Warriors side that defends, halves who have not played together, and a home team that has to grind for a finals spot is not a shootout.
Who is South Sydney Rabbitohs playing next week?
The Rabbitohs play the Titans - at Cbus Super Stadium on Saturday 29 August in NRL Round 26.
Who is New Zealand Warriors playing next week?
The Warriors play the Knights - at Go Media Stadium on Sunday 30 August in NRL Round 26.
