Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Rabbitohs vs Storm Prediction
The bookies have the Storm as favourites, but they come to Sydney without Will Warbrick after his Achilles went last week, and this is a Melbourne side that has looked there for the taking. At Accor Stadium, Souths are the play at the odds.
NRL Round 21 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
SOU
$2.00
Friday, July 24 • 8:00pm AEST
25 : 22
Accor Stadium
MEL
$1.84
Rabbitohs by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
Rabbitohs by 3
Current Market
Storm -1.5
4.5 pts to Rabbitohs
Our Bets This Game
H2HRabbitohs to win
$2.00
LINERabbitohs +1.5
$1.86
TOTALOver 45.5 points
$1.87
MULTIRabbitohs, +1.5 & Over 45.5
$6.96
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Market Has The Storm, But The Rabbitohs Beat Them 48-6 Earlier This Year. At Home And At The Odds, We Are With Souths.
The market has this the wrong way around. The Storm are favourites on reputation, but the side in front of us is inconsistent and beatable, and Souths at home are dangerous.
The Last Meeting Was A Massacre
The overall record leans Melbourne’s way, no argument. But the last time these two met, Souths put them to the sword, and that is the South Sydney we are backing at home. A result like that does not happen by accident, and it is the version of the Bunnies we want at these odds.
The Storm Are Beatable Right Now
Melbourne sit outside the eight, have been knocked over as often as they have won lately, and lost Will Warbrick to a ruptured Achilles last week. This is a vulnerable favourite, not the juggernaut the reputation suggests.
The Catch, And Why We Take The Points
We will be honest: Souths are missing plenty. Cameron Murray and Tallis Duncan are both out injured, so this is a reshuffled South Sydney. That is exactly why the plus 1.5 is our safety net if it stays tight, and with both these teams scoring freely, the over looks the better of the two total plays.
Rabbitohs vs Storm Tip
The Rabbitohs to cause a mild upset at home, with a patchy Storm there for the taking despite the market leaning the other way.
Rabbitohs vs Storm Key Stats
POINTS FOR
SOU28
MEL23
Souths have scored more than Melbourne across the season, which is why we back them outright and lean towards the over.
LINE BREAKS
SOU6
MEL5
The Rabbitohs have cracked the line more often this season, the sort of attack that hurts a vulnerable Storm.
OFFLOADS
SOU8
MEL10
Melbourne keep the ball alive better than most this season, and that is the risk here. It is why we take the points rather than lay the big price on Souths outright.
Rabbitohs vs Storm Form Guide
South Sydney Rabbitohs
WWLWL
- R15: W 48-6 vs Broncos
- R17: W 32-12 vs Eels
- R18: L 14-36 vs Panthers
- R19: W 26-24 vs Knights
- R20: L 24-34 vs Raiders
Melbourne Storm
WWLWL
- R14: W 32-30 vs Knights
- R16: W 42-20 vs Raiders
- R17: L 4-30 vs Sea Eagles
- R19: W 22-18 vs Titans
- R20: L 6-14 vs Roosters
Ben’s Verdict
The Storm carry the reputation and Souths go in reshuffled, so this is no certainty. But the Rabbitohs have home advantage, the market has them a shade too long, and this Melbourne side has looked there for the taking. We will take Souths and the plus 1.5, with the over to back it up. If the Storm find their best, we are wrong.
Our Bets
H2H Rabbitohs to win$2.00
LINE Rabbitohs +1.5$1.86
TOTAL Over 45.5 points$1.87
MULTI Rabbitohs, +1.5 & Over 45.5$6.96
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm |
| Date | Friday, July 24 |
| Kick-off | 8:00pm AEST |
| Venue | Accor Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 21 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Rabbitohs, +1.5 & Over 45.5 @ $6.96 |
| Predicted Score | South Sydney Rabbitohs 25 – Melbourne Storm 22 |
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm FAQs
Who will win Rabbitohs vs Storm?
We’re tipping the Rabbitohs to win at Accor Stadium, against the market. They get a beatable Melbourne at home, and even reshuffled we think that is enough to take on a patchy Storm.
What is the best bet for Rabbitohs vs Storm in Round 21?
South Sydney at plus 1.5 points for $1.86 is our safest way in, with Souths missing Cameron Murray and Tallis Duncan (both injured). We also like the over 45.5 points at $1.87 with both sides able to score.
Where is the Rabbitohs vs Storm Round 21 match being played?
The match is at Accor Stadium in Sydney on Friday night. It is a home game for the Rabbitohs.
Who do the South Sydney Rabbitohs play next week?
The Rabbitohs play the Sharks - at Ocean Protect Stadium on Sunday 2 August in NRL Round 22.
Who do the Melbourne Storm play next week?
The Storm play the Bulldogs - at AAMI Park on Friday 31 July in NRL Round 22.
