Roosters vs Knights Grand Final Betting Tips & Prediction
The Knights have earned this, and I still cannot get…
Rabbitohs vs Knights Prediction
Teams are named and nothing in them moved my number. Souths get Tallis Duncan back in the second row after he sat out the Roosters game with hamstring tightness, Newcastle have named Francis Manuleleua a fortnight after he dislocated an elbow, and I still have the home side by eight in a game I expect to get loose. I want Souths and I want the scoreboard ticking over while they get there.
NRL Elimination Final • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
SOU
$1.40
Friday, September 11 • 7:50pm AEST
32 : 24
Allianz Stadium
NEW
$2.99
Rabbitohs by 8 points
Model Predicted Margin
Rabbitohs by 8
Current Market
Rabbitohs -7.5
0.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HRabbitohs to win
$1.40
LINERabbitohs -7.5
$1.84
TOTALOver 48.5 points
$1.93
MULTIRabbitohs Win, Over 48.5 points & Tallis Duncan Anytime Try
$7.43
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
Both team lists are in and neither one changed my read. The Knights sat fourth with eight rounds to play and finished seventh, and neither of these defences is built to keep a final quiet.
Sixth against seventh, and the ladder tells you almost nothing about how differently these two got here. The Rabbitohs are peaking and the Knights have been surviving, and that is the gap I am backing.
The Knights let this one slip months ago
They sat fourth with eight rounds to play and won three of their final eight to scrape into seventh. That is not one bad week, that is two months of leaking. The last two games on their form guide are a 44-24 loss and a 46-32 loss, and a sudden death final is a strange place to go looking for your defence.
The team sheets did not change anything
Latrell Mitchell got through a full 80 minutes against the Roosters and is in ominous touch. Newcastle naming Francis Manuleleua a fortnight after he dislocated an elbow tells you how badly they need him. Both sheets read the way I expected when I put this line up, so my eight stays at eight and my total stays where it was.
Every recent scoreline says take the points
The last two games on each of these form guides produced 64, 70, 68 and 78 points. Four games, and not one of them within a bull’s roar of 48 and a half. I have got this one at 56 rather than up in that range, because finals footy usually starts tight and both these sides will try to defend for twenty minutes before it gets away from them. Even at 56 the market number is nowhere near it.
Where this goes wrong
The Knights are the better offloading side of the two and that is exactly how a tight final turns into chaos. Get Kalyn Ponga and Fletcher Sharpe playing in broken field and the handicap stops mattering. The Rabbitohs also shipped 45 points to the Warriors a month ago and that game is still sitting on this form guide, so nobody should pretend the defence has been fixed.
Rabbitohs vs Knights Tip
I have got the Rabbitohs by eight and this one landing around 56, and I do not think either side has the defence to keep it quiet.
Rabbitohs vs Knights Key Stats
POINTS FOR
SOU29
NEW26
Both of these attacks put points on and there is not much in it, so this does not need to be a Souths blowout for the total to get where I need it.
KICK RETURN METRES
SOU170
NEW153
Souths start their sets further up the park, and in a tight final that is how field position turns into points before anyone has to be brilliant.
OFFLOADS
SOU7
NEW10
This is the bar that cuts against me. Newcastle keep the ball alive better, and that is the likeliest way a Rabbitohs lead gets eaten into late.
Rabbitohs vs Knights Form Guide
South Sydney Rabbitohs
WWLWW
- R23: W 28-24 vs Eels
- R24: W 22-6 vs Bulldogs
- R25: L 26-45 vs Warriors
- R26: W 42-22 vs Titans
- R27: W 50-20 vs Roosters
Newcastle Knights
WWWLL
- R22: W 30-6 vs Broncos
- R23: W 30-24 vs Raiders
- R24: W 36-26 vs Titans
- R25: L 24-44 vs Sea Eagles
- R26: L 32-46 vs Warriors
Ben’s Verdict
I am on the Rabbitohs and I am giving up the seven and a half with my eyes open. There is half a point in that line and I am not going to dress it up as more than it is. What gets me on it is the shape of the game rather than the size of the number: Souths scoring the way they are, Newcastle defending the way they have been, and 56 points sitting a long way over the market. If it goes wrong it will be because the Knights hang in it and keep the score down, and I would rather be half a point light on the line than on the wrong side of the total.
Our Bets
H2H Rabbitohs to win$1.40
LINE Rabbitohs -7.5$1.84
TOTAL Over 48.5 points$1.93
MULTI Rabbitohs Win, Over 48.5 points & Tallis Duncan Anytime Try$7.43
Player Prop Predictions
David Fifita to score a try, $2.95. He’s crossed for a try in three of his last six.
Campbell Graham to score a try, $1.96. He’s crossed for a try in four of his last seven.
Greg Marzhew to score two or more tries, $4.40. Greg Marzhew scored two last start, and that is two or more in four of his last seven, so the doubles are not a fluke with him. Newcastle look like conceding plenty here but they will get their own points, and $4.40 for a bloke who keeps doing this is worth the risk.
Tallis Duncan to score a try, $2.75. Tallis Duncan went bang with two last start and he has now scored in three of his last five. South Sydney should be on top for most of this one, so at $2.75 he is a steady leg.
Brandon Smith to score a try, $7.00. He’s crossed for a try in three of his last seven.
The Props I Like
PROP David Fifita Anytime Try$2.95
PROP Campbell Graham Anytime Try$1.96
PROP Greg Marzhew 2+ Tries$4.40
PROP Tallis Duncan Anytime Try$2.75
PROP Brandon Smith Anytime Try$7.00
Player Props MultiTallis Duncan Anytime Try, Campbell Graham Anytime Try & Greg Marzhew 2+ Tries, my price $23.72
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Key Facts
| Match | South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights |
| Date | Friday, September 11 |
| Kick-off | 7:50pm AEST |
| Venue | Allianz Stadium |
| Final | NRL Elimination Final |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Rabbitohs Win, Over 48.5 points & Tallis Duncan Anytime Try @ $7.43 |
| Predicted Score | South Sydney Rabbitohs 32 – Newcastle Knights 24 |
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights FAQs
Who will win Rabbitohs vs Knights?
The Rabbitohs, by eight. Newcastle sat fourth with eight rounds to play and slid out to seventh, and the last month of their defence is the reason. The head to head is $1.40 if the winner is all you want from it.
What is the best bet for Rabbitohs vs Knights?
My headline multi at $7.43 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Tallis Duncan Anytime Try. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Will Rabbitohs vs Knights go over 48.5 points?
I think so. I have got it at 56. The last two games on each of these form guides produced 64, 70, 68 and 78 points, so if anything my number is the cautious one. I am on the over at $1.93.
Who is South Sydney Rabbitohs playing next week?
This is an elimination final, so it is sudden death. Win it and the Rabbitohs play a semi final next week, lose it and their season is over. Who they would meet depends on the other results in the first week of the finals, and the NRL confirms that draw once the week is complete.
Who is Newcastle Knights playing next week?
The same applies to the Knights. Win and they are into a semi final next week, lose and they are out. The NRL sets the semi final draw once every game in the first week of the finals has been played.
