Rabbitohs vs Eels Prediction

NRL Round 23 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

SOU

$1.33

Saturday, August 8 • 7:35pm AEST

24 : 16

Allianz Stadium

PAR

$3.34

Rabbitohs by 8 points

Model Predicted Margin

Rabbitohs by 8

Current Market

Rabbitohs -10.5

2.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HRabbitohs to win

$1.33

LINEEels +10.5

$1.83

TOTALUnder 46.5 points

$1.82

MULTIRabbitohs Win & Under 46.5 points

$2.42

Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365

Odds correct at time of posting

The Rabbitohs Have Won Five Of The Last Six Against The Eels. Ten And A Half Points Is Still Too Many.

Cameron Murray is back from a calf, David Fifita is back from suspension and Tallis Duncan comes back into the centres. That is Souths at close to the side they want on the park.

They have still lost three of their last five and the Sharks beat them last start. Seventh is not a ladder position to me here, it is a form line, and 10.5 asks a side in that form to be ruthless for eighty minutes.

I will take the points, and I want the under with them.

Eight is not eleven

Souths win this. Building an eleven point margin is a different job to winning a home game.

Parramatta sit thirteenth and got the job done last start, so this is not a side turning up already beaten. A Souths outfit in the shape this one is in wins that game. It does not usually put eleven on it.

Three back at once is the argument against me

This is where I can be wrong. That is a far stronger Souths pack and backline than the one the Sharks beat, and if it clicks from the first set then the line covers itself and I never get a look in.

My read is that a side putting three men straight back in is rarely at its most fluent in week one. Combinations take a few weeks. That is the whole reason I am on the points and not the winner.

What you actually get from the Eels

Backing Parramatta here is not backing them to play well. It is backing them to stay in touch.

What they give you is a side that drags games into an arm wrestle. They beat the Tigers 16-13 last start, which tells you exactly what watching them is like. They are not going to invite a shootout and they are not built to chase one.

The honest risk is at the other end. Their defence is the weak part of them, and if Souths get on top through the middle it is the Eels who get stretched. That is how I lose this, and it is why the points are $1.83 instead of odds on.

Where the under falls over

Both of these sides leak points, and I am not going to pretend that is a small thing.

I still want the under, because a total that size needs two teams contributing and the Eels have not held up their end of a high scoring game all year. Souths going big on their own does not get 46.5 there.

Rabbitohs vs Eels Tip

I have the Rabbitohs winning by eight at Allianz and I make it a 40 point game. That leaves two and a half points of room on the line, so it is tight rather than comfortable.

Rabbitohs vs Eels Key Stats

Rabbitohs vs Eels Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Tallis Duncan to score a try, $2.40. He has gone quiet the last couple, but there is a double sitting in that run and he has landed it in two of his last five. A 40 point game at Allianz gives him the ball to fix that, and $2.40 pays for the wait.

David Fifita to score a try, $3.00. A try in two of his last five and Souths winning by eight means plenty of football down the right end. That is the sort of night a bloke like him gets on the end of something, and $3.00 is generous for it.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

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