Panthers vs Roosters Prediction

NRL Qualifying Final • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

PEN

$1.35

Sunday, September 13 • 4:05pm AEST

23 : 14

CommBank Stadium

SYD

$3.22

Panthers by 9 points

Model Predicted Margin

Panthers by 9

Current Market

Panthers -9.5

0.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HPanthers to win

$1.35

LINERoosters +9.5

$1.90

TOTALUnder 42.5 points

$1.90

MULTIPanthers Win, Under 42.5 points & Casey McLean Anytime Try

$5.59

Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365

Odds correct at time of posting

The Roosters that got beaten by thirty last week were the reserves. Penrith are still the side, but nine and a half points is a lot to give a Roosters team with its proper players back in.

What the model cannot see

The ten names the team sheet lists as out are the reserves who filled in last round, when the Roosters rested nine of their first choice side and lost 50-20. The regulars are all back for this one. My numbers took that 50-20 at face value, so the Panthers margin here is built on a Roosters side that is not the one playing. That does not change the bet, it changes how much weight I put on it: the Panthers head to head at $1.35 is less safe than the price says, and the line and the under are where my money sits.

Everything about this one says tight and low. Penrith are the better side and I expect them to win it, but the gap between the two teams is a lot smaller than a week of headlines about a 50-20 loss suggests. That was a reserve side.

The Roosters you saw last week are not the Roosters you get here

Trent Robinson rested nine of his first choice side for the last round and the reserves copped 50-20. James Tedesco, Daly Cherry-Evans, Reece Robson, Naufahu Whyte and Lindsay Collins are all back in the starting side and Victor Radley is back from concussion. That is a different football team, and it is the reason I am not taking Penrith to cover nine and a half. The 50-20 tells you about the Roosters’ depth, not about this side.

Penrith’s defence is the bet

The Panthers held the Bulldogs and the Tigers to ten points apiece in their last two, and the last time these two met at this ground they managed 18 points between them. Penrith do not leak, the Roosters have lost their halfback Sam Walker for the season, and a moderate breeze with a chance of showers will not help anyone throw the ball around. Under 42.5 falls straight out of my 23-14, and it is the leg I have the most conviction in.

Why the Roosters on the line and not the Panthers

I make it Penrith by nine and the line is nine and a half. Half a point is not an edge and I am not going to pretend it is. The reason I take the Roosters’ side of it is everything above: the side that is actually playing, a 12-6 win over Penrith at CommBank earlier this season and a 38-32 shootout on this ground last year, so this is not a venue where Penrith run away from them. Losing by eight still pays here, and a Roosters side with its best players back losing by eight is a very live result.

The case for Penrith, and why it does not stretch to the line

Nathan Cleary against Daly Cherry-Evans is the contest, and Isaah Yeo is back in the starting side in his second game since a pectoral injury. The Panthers put 40 on the Roosters in the two meetings before that 12-6 loss, and three straight wins into a finals series is exactly how they like to arrive. I have them winning. I just cannot get to ten points against this Roosters side, and a loss for either team here means a semi final next week, not a season over.

Panthers vs Roosters Tip

Panthers 23-14. That gives you Roosters +9.5 and the under out of the same game, and the reason I take the Roosters’ side of the line is the team news, not the half a point.

Panthers vs Roosters Key Stats

Panthers vs Roosters Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Casey McLean to score a try, $2.18. Three tries last start and a try in three of his last six games, and with Penrith read to post 23 the points are coming from somewhere. Casey McLean at $2.18 is the steady leg this multi is built on.

Robert Toia to score a try, $3.50. Robert Toia has crossed in each of his last two and in three of his last six games, and the match read keeps his side scoring at 14 rather than shut out. Plenty of room in $3.50.

Thomas Jenkins to score a try, $1.78. Two tries last start after a four game drought, and a 23 point Penrith read means the finishers get fed. Thomas Jenkins with a try in three of his last seven games is fair at $1.78.

Liam Martin to score a try, $3.60. Liam Martin scores in bursts, two tries in a game twice in his last seven, and a Penrith side read to land 23 gives him enough attack to work with. A try in three of his last seven games makes $3.60 worth a bet.

Salesi Foketi to score a try, $6.75. Salesi Foketi has a try in three of his last seven games and the match read has his side landing 14 points, so there are tries to be had at his end. $6.75 is plenty for that record.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.