Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Panthers vs Raiders Prediction
Panthers against Raiders in Mudgee this weekend, the best side in the competition against the hottest. I fancy the Panthers to win this by plenty, with the scoreboard ticking over at both ends.
NRL Round 22 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
PEN
$1.30
Saturday, August 1 • 5:30pm AEST
29 : 19
Glen Willow Oval
CBR
$3.57
Panthers by 10 points
Model Predicted Margin
Panthers by 10
Current Market
Panthers -9.5
0.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HPanthers to win
$1.30
LINEPanthers -9.5
$1.84
TOTALOver 43.5 points
$1.82
MULTIPanthers -9.5, Over 43.5 points & Xavier Savage Anytime Try
$7.70
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Raiders Are The Form Team In The Competition Right Now. The Panthers Still Have Too Much For The Line To Hold.
This is a heavy favourite against the form team of the competition. The Raiders are dangerous, but the market lines Penrith at 9.5 and I’ve got them by ten, with the total set too low at 43.5. That gap is the bet.
The Raiders’ Form Is Real, But So Is The Gap
I’m not dismissing the run Canberra is on: four straight wins doesn’t happen by accident, and they roll into Mudgee with genuine confidence. But that run is built on their attack, not their defence, and the defence is the hole Penrith walk straight through.
The Line Is The Play
This is where the value sits. The Panthers rarely hand a lead back once they build one, and Canberra don’t have the defensive steel to claw inside ten late. Dylan Edwards is still sidelined and Jack Cogger steps into the spine, but the reshuffle does not close the class gap.
The Points Run Up, Not Down
Two of the sharpest attacks in the game are in this one, and Canberra have been racking up big scores through their hot run. Even if the Panthers control the football, the tries at both ends should carry this past 43.5. I don’t see a low scoring arm wrestle here.
Panthers vs Raiders Tip
I’ve got the Panthers to win by ten at Mudgee, too strong across the park, and I want the scoreboard climbing past 43.5.
Panthers vs Raiders Key Stats
POINTS FOR
PEN30
CBR23
Penrith score in bunches, and that firepower is what drags this total up past 43.5.
POINTS AGAINST
PEN14
CBR25
This is the bet right here. Canberra’s defence is the soft underbelly, and against a side this controlled it’s what gets the Panthers over the line with room to spare.
LINE BREAKS
PEN6
CBR4
Penrith cut you open through the middle, and that edge is what turns pressure into points the Raiders can’t match.
Panthers vs Raiders Form Guide
Penrith Panthers
LLWLW
- R16: L 18-19 vs Titans
- R17: L 12-26 vs Cowboys
- R18: W 36-14 vs Rabbitohs
- R20: L 12-14 vs Broncos
- R21: W 24-18 vs Eels
Canberra Raiders
LWWWW
- R16: L 20-42 vs Storm
- R17: W 24-16 vs Dragons
- R19: W 40-16 vs Bulldogs
- R20: W 34-24 vs Rabbitohs
- R21: W 56-10 vs Wests Tigers
Ben’s Verdict
Back the Panthers on the line. They’re a level above and control games once they’re in front, even against a Canberra side coming in on a genuine roll. The one worry is Penrith easing off once the game is won, but I’ll wear that for the price.
Our Bets
H2H Panthers to win$1.30
LINE Panthers -9.5$1.84
TOTAL Over 43.5 points$1.82
MULTI Panthers -9.5, Over 43.5 points & Xavier Savage Anytime Try$7.70
Player Prop Predictions
Xavier Savage to score a try, $2.30. Over the line last start and four of his last seven, Savage keeps finding the chalk even when his side is up against it. At $2.30 the strike rate carries it.
Brian To’o to score two or more tries, $3.90. I’ve got the Panthers piling on past 43.5, and when that scoreboard climbs To’o is first in the queue for a brace. He’s bagged the double twice in his last five, so $3.90 for a bloke who scores in pairs is a good price.
Liam Martin to score a try, $3.75. Crossed last start, and with the Panthers on top all day the forwards get their reward near the line. Two in his last five at $3.75 is worth a look.
The Props I Like
PROP Xavier Savage Anytime Try$2.30
PROP Brian To’o 2+ Tries$3.90
PROP Liam Martin Anytime Try$3.75
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders |
| Date | Saturday, August 1 |
| Kick-off | 5:30pm AEST |
| Venue | Glen Willow Oval |
| Round | NRL Round 22 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Panthers -9.5, Over 43.5 points & Xavier Savage Anytime Try @ $7.70 |
| Predicted Score | Penrith Panthers 29 – Canberra Raiders 19 |
Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders FAQs
Who will win Panthers vs Raiders?
I’m tipping the Panthers. They top the ladder and defend far better than Canberra, and even at their best the visitors would need to score a mountain to keep this close.
What is the best bet in Panthers vs Raiders?
My headline multi at $7.70 leaves the straight win out and rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Xavier Savage Anytime Try. On its own, Panthers -9.5 at $1.84 is the anchor.
Where is Panthers vs Raiders being played?
The game is at Glen Willow Oval in Mudgee, a regional New South Wales ground. It is a Panthers home fixture but a neutral country venue where neither side has a real home edge.
Who do the Penrith Panthers play next week?
The Panthers travel to face the Warriors on Friday 7 August in NRL Round 23.
Who do the Canberra Raiders play next week?
The Raiders host the Knights at GIO Stadium on Sunday 9 August in NRL Round 23.
