Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Knights vs Roosters Prediction
The Roosters are the better side and deserve favouritism at McDonald Jones. But the Knights keep dragging this fixture into an arm wrestle, and seven and a half points is a lot to give a home team that has lost two of the last three here by less than a converted try.
NRL Round 21 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
Roosters by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
Roosters by 3
Current Market
Roosters -7.5
4.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HRoosters to win
$1.42
LINEKnights +7.5
$1.93
TOTALUnder 45.5 points
$1.90
MULTITupou, Marzhew & Lucas to Combine for 2+ & Knights +7.5
KRUZEY Daily Dabble$4.5
KRUZEY Exclusive
Combine for 2+ & Knights +7.5 @ $4.5
Odds correct at time of posting.
The player prop multi is the four legs multiplied straight; a same game multi prices differently
The Roosters Keep Beating Newcastle, But They Keep Doing It Narrowly. That Is Why We Are Taking The Knights And The Points.
The Roosters are the classier team and we are happy to have them winning this. The argument is the margin, and everything about how these two play in Newcastle says it stays tight.
Two Of The Last Three Were Nailbiters
The Roosters have won the last three here, but two of those three were nailbiters, decided by two and four points. A fixture that so often lands inside a converted try is not one where you happily lay seven and a half. That gap between the market and the history is the bet.
Newcastle Without Kalyn Ponga
The Knights lose Kalyn Ponga to a quad, and Fletcher Sharpe shifts to fullback to cover him. That is a real dent to their spark and the clear risk to the line bet. But a side that has dropped its last two by two points apiece is used to the tight ones, not a team about to get run off the park.
The Points Should Stay Down
Both these sides defend hard, and a Newcastle attack missing its main man is not about to cut loose. On a cold, still night in Newcastle, the under is our side, though only just: our own number lands on 45, half a point inside the line.
Knights vs Roosters Tip
The Roosters to win a tight one, but not by the seven and a half the bookies want, which is why we are on the Knights on the line.
Knights vs Roosters Key Stats
POINTS AGAINST
NEW23
SYD20
This is a night for the under. The Roosters give up the fewer points and Newcastle are no soft touch either, so the Roosters edge it while the scoreboard stays low.
LINE BREAKS
NEW6
SYD5
Newcastle still crack the line even without Kalyn Ponga at the back. A side that can score keeps this inside the seven and a half.
MISSED TACKLES
NEW34
SYD27
The Roosters hold their edges better, so this shapes as a grind, not a shootout. That points the total down.
Knights vs Roosters Form Guide
Newcastle Knights
WWWLL
- R16: W 22-20 vs Dragons
- R17: W 12-6 vs Wests Tigers
- R18: W 13-12 vs Dolphins
- R19: L 24-26 vs Rabbitohs
- R20: L 18-20 vs Sharks
Sydney Roosters
LWWWW
- R15: L 10-48 vs Dolphins
- R16: W 27-8 vs Sharks
- R17: W 24-18 vs Broncos
- R19: W 28-12 vs Eels
- R20: W 14-6 vs Storm
Ben’s Verdict
The Roosters are good enough to win this and we are not against them in the head to head. We just will not lay seven and a half points in a fixture these two so often grind into a tight one. Give us the Knights on the line and the under, with a Newcastle side that grinds even without Kalyn Ponga. The risk is the Roosters clicking early and turning a grind into a gap.
Our Bets
H2H Roosters to win$1.42
LINE Knights +7.5$1.93
TOTAL Under 45.5 points$1.90
MULTI Tupou, Marzhew & Lucas to Score combine for 2+ Knights +7.5KRUZEY Daily Dabble$4.5
KRUZEY Exclusive
Combine for 2+ & Knights +7.5 @ $4.5
Odds correct at time of posting.
Player Prop Predictions
Daniel Tupou anytime try scorer, $1.75. Tupou has scored in seven of his eleven games this season, the best strike rate of anyone named tonight, and he comes in off four tries in his last two rounds. We make him a $1.57 chance, so there is still a little in $1.75 for the form winger on the park.
Greg Marzhew anytime try scorer, $2.20. Eight scoring games from sixteen, a double just last week, and nobody named tonight carries the ball further at 196 metres a game. We price him $2.00, so $2.20 at home is over the odds.
Dylan Lucas anytime try scorer, $3.30. Seven scoring games from fourteen this season and five of his last seven. We make him $2.00 as well. The market has him at $3.30 because back rowers always get priced like back rowers, and that is the biggest gap on this card.
The combo: Tupou, Marzhew and Lucas each to score a try, $12.71. Both clubs covered and at least three tries between them if it lands. Multiply the three legs and it pays $12.71 as a straight multi; a same game multi will price it shorter because the legs help each other. Our numbers make the true chance closer to $6.28 either way. A different bet worth knowing: the set market on these same three to share 3+ tries pays $3.80, easier to hit because a double from any of them counts.
The multi: add the Knights at plus 7.5 for $1.93, the bet this page tips, and it pays $24.52. That is the exact game our model prints: Roosters by three, Newcastle in it all night, and the try scorers on both sides doing what they have done all year.
PROP Daniel Tupou Anytime Try$1.75
PROP Greg Marzhew Anytime Try$2.20
PROP Dylan Lucas Anytime Try$3.30
COMBO All Three to Score$12.71
MULTI Combo to combine for 2+ Knights +7.5 $4.50
Market odds correct at time of writing. Our own chances above come from each player’s full season scoring record. The combo and multi are the legs multiplied straight; a same game multi prices differently.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters |
| Date | Friday, July 24 |
| Kick-off | 6:00pm AEST |
| Venue | McDonald Jones Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 21 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Knights +7.5 @ $1.93 |
| Prop Special | Tupou, Marzhew & Lucas to combine for 2+ & Knights +7.5 @ $4.50 |
| Predicted Score | Newcastle Knights 21 – Sydney Roosters 24 |
Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters FAQs
Who will win Knights vs Roosters?
We’re tipping the Roosters to win at McDonald Jones, but only just. They are the better side, but we are backing Newcastle on the line.
What is the best bet for Knights vs Roosters in Round 21?
The Knights at plus 7.5 points for $1.93 is our top play, given how tight this fixture always is. We also like the under 45.5 points at $1.90 with both defences on top.
Where is the Knights vs Roosters Round 21 match being played?
The match is at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle on Friday night. It is a home game for the Knights.
Who do the Newcastle Knights play next week?
The Knights play the Broncos - at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday 1 August in NRL Round 22.
Who do the Sydney Roosters play next week?
The Roosters play the Cowboys - at Queensland Country Bank Stadium on Thursday 30 July in NRL Round 22.
