Dolphins vs Cowboys Prediction
Some sides just have another side’s number. Four straight wins…
Roosters vs Storm Prediction
The Roosters are flying at home and they deserve to be favourites, but the Storm are quietly back in form and dangerous. The catch is the price of admission: the bookies want you to lay nearly two converted tries, and against these opponents that is a lot to ask.
NRL Round 20 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
SYD
$1.28
Friday, July 17 • 8:00pm AEST
22 : 15
Allianz Stadium
MEL
$3.66
Roosters by 7 points
Model Predicted Margin
Roosters by 7
Current Market
Roosters -11.5
4.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HRoosters to win
$1.28
LINEStorm +11.5
$1.93
TOTALUnder 44.5 points
$1.83
MULTIRoosters, Storm +11.5 & Under 44.5
$4.52
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Roosters Are the Better Side at Home Tonight. But the Storm Have Their Measure, and Twelve Points Is a Bridge Too Far.
Third against tenth, and on form the Roosters are the better side at their own ground. We are happy to back them to win. What we will not do is lay a line of nearly two converted tries against a Storm side that beat them earlier this season and has won most of the recent meetings. Yes, the Storm are without their chief playmaker, and that is the live risk on the margin. But a short attack is exactly why we want the points and the under, not the win, and their record against the Roosters says they hang inside twelve.
The Roosters are the right side
Third on the table, humming at home, and coming off a comfortable win. On the football alone we make the Roosters the better team tonight, and the head to head at short odds is a fair reflection of that. Backing them to win is the easy part.
Twelve points is too many
Here is the rub. The Storm beat the Roosters earlier this season and have won the bulk of the recent meetings between these two. A side with that record, and playing better than their ladder spot suggests, does not get run off the park by nearly two converted tries. The value is taking the points with the Storm.
The points should stay down
The Roosters defend as well as anyone and the Storm come in without their chief playmaker, which blunts the visitors’ scoring. Add a bit of rain about and a tight arm wrestle looms rather than a shootout. The under is squarely in play.
The one worry
If the Roosters click early and pull away at home, this can get away and blow past the line. A Storm side missing their main man makes that a real chance. But we would rather be on the underdog getting twelve than laying them.
Roosters vs Storm Tip
The Roosters win at home but by less than the bookies want, so the value sits with the Storm inside the 11.5 line and the total staying under 44.5.
Roosters vs Storm Key Stats
POINTS AGAINST
SYD21
MEL24
The Roosters concede 21 a game this season to the Storm’s 24.5. That gap underpins the home win and the under.
MISSED TACKLES
SYD27
MEL34
The Roosters miss 27.1 tackles a game to the Storm’s 33.5. The tighter defence points to a grind, not a shootout.
KICK RETURN METRES
SYD214
MEL150
The Roosters run back 214.5 kick metres a game to the Storm’s 149.5. That field position edge gets a favourite home without a blowout.
Roosters vs Storm Form Guide
Sydney Roosters
WLWWW
- R14: W 26-0 vs Raiders
- R15: L 10-48 vs Dolphins
- R16: W 27-8 vs Sharks
- R17: W 24-18 vs Broncos
- R19: W 28-12 vs Eels
Melbourne Storm
WWWLW
- R13: W 18-4 vs Roosters
- R14: W 32-30 vs Knights
- R16: W 42-20 vs Raiders
- R17: L 4-30 vs Sea Eagles
- R19: W 22-18 vs Titans
Ben’s Verdict
Back the Roosters to win, but take the Storm inside the line and the points under alongside. If the home side cuts loose the line burns, yet against these opponents we think this stays a good deal closer than the bookies are pricing.
Our Bets
H2H Roosters to win$1.28
LINE Storm +11.5$1.93
TOTAL Under 44.5 points$1.83
MULTI Roosters, Storm +11.5 & Under 44.5$4.52
Key Facts
| Match | Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm |
| Date | Friday, July 17 |
| Kick-off | 8:00pm AEST |
| Venue | Allianz Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 20 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Roosters Multi: H2H + Storm +11.5 + Under 44.5 @ $4.52 |
| Predicted Score | Sydney Roosters 22 – Melbourne Storm 15 |
Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm FAQs
Who will win Roosters vs Storm?
We are tipping the Roosters to win at home. They sit third on the table and are the stronger side on current form, but we do not expect a blowout against a Storm outfit that beat them earlier in the season.
What is the best bet for Roosters vs Storm?
The Storm to cover the 11.5 line at $1.93 is the play, with the under 44.5 at $1.83 alongside it. For the bigger price, the multi of the Roosters head to head, the Storm line and the under pays $4.52.
Will Roosters vs Storm be a high scoring game?
We do not think so. The Roosters defend well, the Storm are missing their chief playmaker, and there is rain about, which is why the under 44.5 at $1.83 is in the staking plan.
Who is Sydney Roosters playing next week?
The Roosters play the Knights - at McDonald Jones Stadium on Friday 24 July in NRL Round 21.
Who is Melbourne Storm playing next week?
The Storm play the Rabbitohs - at Accor Stadium on Friday 24 July in NRL Round 21.
