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Rabbitohs vs Knights Prediction
The Knights arrive on a run of three straight wins and a real hold on this fixture, and the market has swung them into favouritism away from home. That is the bit I cannot get past: the Rabbitohs, at Accor, at $2.00. This afternoon I am on the home side.
NRL Round 19 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
SOU
$2.00
Sunday, July 12 • 2:00pm AEST
25 : 22
Accor Stadium
NEW
$1.84
Rabbitohs by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
Rabbitohs by 3
Current Market
Rabbitohs +1.5
1.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HRabbitohs to win
$2.00
LINERabbitohs +1.5
$1.87
TOTALUnder 49.5 points
$1.90
MULTIRabbitohs, +1.5 & Under 49.5
$7.11
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
Knights Have Won Three Straight and the Last Three Against Souths. I Still Want the Rabbitohs at Even Money.
Everything the market can see favours Newcastle: the run they are on, the recent history between these two. I think it has overcorrected, and the value now sits with the home side.
Even money about the home side
The bookies have Souths at $2.00 in their own building, which tells you how hard the money has come for Newcastle. I make this a three point game the Rabbitohs edge, and even money about the side I rate the winner is the whole reason this bet exists. The +1.5 at $1.87 is the insurance version of the same opinion, paying you even if they fall one short.
Souths are closer to full strength
The club named captain Cameron Murray to back up from Origin duty this week, with Campbell Graham also returning from injury. That is the leadership and the strike coming back in one hit, and it is exactly what a side that has been patched up for a month needs. A near full Souths side at home is a different proposition to the one the market has been watching.
Newcastle’s second phase is the danger
The Knights are winning because their offload game keeps sets alive and drags defences out of shape. They have also won the last three meetings between these clubs, including a shootout earlier this season, so nobody should pretend the risk here is small. If Souths cannot wrap the ball, the streak becomes four and this preview ages badly.
The total needs the game to behave
The last meeting between these two produced 80 points, so under 49.5 is not a bet you make blind. But that game was in Newcastle and this one is a cool Sunday afternoon at Accor, and I read it as a grind between two sides that will kick early and play the long game. Tight games stay under, and I have this one tight.
Rabbitohs vs Knights Tip
I’m tipping the Rabbitohs by 3; Newcastle’s winning run has pushed the price on the home side out to even money, and that is too big for a game this close.
Rabbitohs vs Knights Key Stats
POINTS FOR
SOU29
NEW26
Souths are putting on 28.8 points a game this season to Newcastle’s 26.1, and that edge is exactly what the even money price ignores.
OFFLOADS
SOU8
NEW10
Newcastle’s second phase is where their points come from; if Souths wrap the ball carrier, the Knights’ attack loses its engine.
MISSED TACKLES
SOU32
NEW34
Newcastle are missing 34.1 tackles a game this season to Souths’ 31.9, and against a side back near full strength that gap is where a three point game gets decided.
Rabbitohs vs Knights Form Guide
South Sydney Rabbitohs
LLWWL
- R12: L 18-30 vs Cowboys
- R14: L 14-28 vs Sea Eagles
- R15: W 48-6 vs Broncos
- R17: W 32-12 vs Eels
- R18: L 14-36 vs Panthers
Newcastle Knights
WLWWW
- R13: W 28-22 vs Eels
- R14: L 30-32 vs Storm
- R16: W 22-20 vs Dragons
- R17: W 12-6 vs Wests Tigers
- R18: W 13-12 vs Dolphins
Ben’s Verdict
Newcastle have earned favouritism, but a near full strength Souths at home is at worst a coin flip, and $2.00 is better money than a coin flip deserves. I’m on the Rabbitohs by 3, they cover the 1.5, and the game stays under 49.5. If you agree with all three, the multi pays $7.11.
Our Bets
H2H Rabbitohs to win$2.00
LINE Rabbitohs +1.5$1.87
TOTAL Under 49.5 points$1.90
MULTI Rabbitohs, +1.5 & Under 49.5$7.11
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights |
| Date | Sunday, July 12 |
| Kick-off | 2:00pm AEST |
| Venue | Accor Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 19 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Rabbitohs Multi: H2H + Line + Under 49.5 @ $7.11 |
| Predicted Score | South Sydney Rabbitohs 25 – Newcastle Knights 22 |
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights FAQs
Who will win Rabbitohs vs Knights?
I’m tipping the Rabbitohs to win by around 3 points at Accor Stadium. Newcastle come in on a run of three straight wins, but Souths at home at $2.00 is the value side of this market.
What is the best bet for Rabbitohs vs Knights in Round 19?
My best bet is the Rabbitohs multi at $7.11: the head to head, the +1.5 line and under 49.5 points. All three rest on the same read of a tight, low scoring game the home side edges.
Where is Rabbitohs vs Knights being played?
The match is at Accor Stadium in Sydney, kicking off at 2:00pm on Sunday 12 July 2026.
Who do the South Sydney Rabbitohs play next week?
The Rabbitohs play the Raiders at GIO Stadium on Saturday 18 July in NRL Round 20. Read our Raiders vs Rabbitohs Round 20 prediction.
Who do the Newcastle Knights play next week?
The Knights play the Sharks at Ocean Protect Stadium on Friday 17 July in NRL Round 20. Read our Sharks vs Knights Round 20 prediction.
Verified result – Round 19
We tipped Rabbitohs to win – correct. Final score: Rabbitohs 26 – Knights 24.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multi | Rabbitohs, +1.5 & Under 48.5 @ $6.96 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Rabbitohs 25 – Knights 22. Off by 1 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: NRL results page - Nrl tips nrl results.
