Eels vs Sea Eagles Prediction
The Sea Eagles come to CommBank full of run after…
Knights vs Dolphins Prediction
The Dolphins have not lost in eight and arrive in Newcastle hunting a ninth straight. But this is a Knights side that owns the recent history between these two, and I’m looking low this afternoon.
NRL Round 18 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
NEW
$1.96
Sunday, July 5 • 4:05pm
22 : 28
McDonald Jones Stadium
DOL
$1.87
The Dolphins by 6 points
Model Predicted Margin
The Dolphins by 6
Current Market
Newcastle Knights +2.5
3.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HDolphins to win
$1.87
LINEDolphins -1.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 50.5 points
$1.89
MULTIDolphins, -1.5 & Under 50.5
$6.72
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Dolphins Roll Into Newcastle Chasing Nine Wins On The Bounce. Both Sides Are Missing Origin Stars, So This One Stays Tighter Than The Streak Suggests.
The form line screams Dolphins, the history screams Knights, and Origin has taken a wrecking ball to both spines. That last part is why I’m less interested in the winner than the total.
The streak against the Newcastle hoodoo
The Dolphins are chasing a ninth win in a row. But Newcastle have won five of the last six meetings between these two. Something has to give at McDonald Jones this afternoon.
Origin has gutted both spines
The Dolphins are without Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and a stack of Queenslanders, while the Knights lose Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best to the two camps. Two reshuffled backlines rarely combine for a shootout. A returning forward through the middle matters more than any highlight play here.
Why the under is the play
Add up a greasy Newcastle afternoon and a Dolphins side that would happily grind this out, and I do not see the points piling up. The bookies have hung fifty and a half. I will take under that all day.
The risk in going low
The obvious danger is the Dolphins doing what they have done all season and putting thirty and a bit on their own. They have been averaging north of thirty five a game, so if their spine clicks early, the under is cooked by half time.
Knights vs Dolphins Tip
The Dolphins keep the good times rolling by a converted try, but I want the points to stay down.
Knights vs Dolphins Key Stats
POINTS AGAINST
NEW24
DOL21
The Dolphins concede 20.6 a game to Newcastle’s 24.3, so in a tight one they keep the lid on.
KICK RETURN METRES
NEW154
DOL212
The Dolphins run it back for 212 a game to the Knights’ 154, so they win the field position and get to squeeze the arm wrestle.
POINTS FOR
NEW27
DOL29
The Dolphins score 29.3 a game to Newcastle’s 26.9, but not enough firepower to talk me off the under.
Knights vs Dolphins Form Guide
Newcastle Knights
WWLWW
- R11: W 36-12 vs Titans
- R13: W 28-22 vs Eels
- R14: L 30-32 vs Storm
- R16: W 22-20 vs Dragons
- R17: W 12-6 vs Wests Tigers
The Dolphins
WWWWW
- R12: W 30-22 vs Raiders
- R14: W 40-14 vs Cowboys
- R15: W 48-10 vs Roosters
- R16: W 36-22 vs Wests Tigers
- R17: W 26-24 vs Warriors
Ben’s Verdict
The Dolphins are the better side and I’ll back them to win a scrappy one by six. But the real value is the total: in the Newcastle drizzle these two should not trouble fifty and a half.
Our Bets
H2H Dolphins to win$1.87
LINE Dolphins -1.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 50.5 points$1.89
MULTI Dolphins, -1.5 & Under 50.5$6.72
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | Newcastle Knights vs The Dolphins |
| Date | Sunday, July 5 |
| Kick-off | 4:05pm AEST |
| Venue | McDonald Jones Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 18 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Dolphins Multi: H2H + Line + Under 50.5 @ $6.72 |
| Predicted Score | Newcastle Knights 22 – The Dolphins 28 |
Newcastle Knights vs The Dolphins FAQs
Who will win Knights vs Dolphins?
The Dolphins are our tip, around 28-22. They come in as one of the competition’s form sides, though Newcastle’s strong recent record against them and a raft of Origin outs make it closer than a run of eight straight wins suggests.
What is the best bet for Knights vs Dolphins?
The multi: Dolphins to win, cover the 1.5 line and the total to stay under 50.5 points, paying $6.72. With both attacks missing Origin stars, a tight low scoring Dolphins win is the shape we expect.
Are the Knights or Dolphins missing players?
Both are hit hard by Origin. Newcastle lose Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best to the two camps, while the Dolphins are without Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and several other Queenslanders. It leaves two heavily reshuffled sides.
