Knights vs Tigers Prediction
The Knights are the better side and our model tips…
Dolphins vs Warriors Prediction
The Dolphins are the form team and our model tips them to win at Suncorp, but the smarter play is on the scoreboard. With two of the meanest defences in the round on show, the points staying down looks the value.
NRL Round 17 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
DOL
$1.67
Saturday, June 27 • 3:00pm
26 : 21
Suncorp Stadium
WAR
$2.22
The Dolphins by 5 points
Model Predicted Margin
The Dolphins by 5
Current Market
The Dolphins -3.5
1.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HDolphins to win
$1.67
LINEDolphins -3.5
$1.86
TOTALUnder 51.5 points
$1.90
MULTIDolphins, -3.5 & Under 51.5
$5.90
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Dolphins Are on a Five Game Tear and Should Win This. The Sharper Bet Is Whether These Two Tight Defences Keep the Points Down.
The Dolphins are flying. Five wins on the bounce and a scoring rate that leads every side in this round. At home they are a genuine handful, and our model has them winning this comfortably.
The Warriors are no soft touch though, and that is precisely why the margin play does not appeal as much as the points. Both these sides have the tightest defences in the round, giving up under sixteen a game.
That is the angle. When two miserly defences meet, the scoreboard tends to stall, and the under is where the value sits. Our model has the total landing south of the line.
The Dolphins win is the likely outcome, but a tight defensive contest is the smarter bet. Backing the under sidesteps the question of whether they win by three or thirteen.
The risk is one of these attacks catching fire early and blowing the total open. But the defensive numbers on both sides say grind, not shootout.
Dolphins vs Warriors Tip
Dolphins to win by 5 at Suncorp, but the real edge is two stingy defences keeping the points down.
Dolphins vs Warriors Key Stats
POINTS PER GAME (LAST 5)
DOL37
WAR27
The Dolphins lead the round for scoring, which is why they are tipped to win the contest at home.
POINTS CONCEDED (LAST 5)
DOL16
WAR15
Both defences are the tightest in the round, and that is exactly why the under appeals over the margin.
RECENT FORM (LAST 5)
DOL50
WAR50
The Dolphins are unbeaten across their last five, while the Warriors arrive solid but a notch below.
Dolphins vs Warriors Form Guide
The Dolphins
WWWWW
- R11: W 32-10 vs Rabbitohs
- R12: W 30-22 vs Raiders
- R14: W 40-14 vs Cowboys
- R15: W 48-10 vs Roosters
- R16: W 36-22 vs Wests Tigers
New Zealand Warriors
WWLLW
- R11: W 42-12 vs Broncos
- R12: W 30-12 vs Dragons
- R13: L 18-20 vs Panthers
- R15: L 8-10 vs Sharks
- R16: W 38-20 vs Cowboys
Final Verdict
The Dolphins should take this at home, but the points staying down is the cleaner play. Two of the best defences in the round point straight at the under.
Our Bets
H2H Dolphins to win$1.67
LINE Dolphins -3.5$1.86
TOTAL Under 51.5 points$1.90
MULTI Dolphins, -3.5 & Under 51.5$5.90
Up Next Tips and Predictions
Key Facts
| Match | The Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors |
| Date | Saturday, June 27 |
| Kick-off | 3:00pm AEST |
| Venue | Suncorp Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 17 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Under 51.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | The Dolphins 26 – New Zealand Warriors 21 |
The Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors FAQs
Who will win Dolphins vs Warriors?
Our model tips the Dolphins to win by around five points at Suncorp Stadium. They are unbeaten across their last five and carry the round’s strongest attack.
What is the best bet for Dolphins vs Warriors?
The recommended bet is the under 51.5 at $1.90. Both sides own elite defences, and our model has the total landing comfortably below the line.
Will Dolphins vs Warriors be a high scoring game?
Our model does not think so. These are two of the tightest defences in the round, each giving up under sixteen points a game, which points the contest towards the under.
Verified result – Round 17
We tipped Dolphins to win – correct. Final score: Dolphins 26 – Warriors 24.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.86 | Loss | -1.00u |
| Multi | Dolphins, -3.5 & Under 51.5 @ $5.90 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Dolphins 26 – Warriors 21. Off by 3 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: NRL results page - Nrl tips nrl results.
