Roosters vs Sharks Prediction
The Roosters host the Sharks in the highest scoring matchup…
Storm vs Raiders Prediction
The Storm host the Raiders at AAMI Park as narrow favourites, and our model agrees they take the points. The catch is how little separates them: at 24-21 this is the tightest read of the round, and that shapes the smart side of the line.
NRL Round 16 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
MEL
$1.37
Sunday, June 21 • 4:05pm
24 : 21
AAMI Park
CBR
$3.12
Melbourne Storm by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
Melbourne Storm by 3
Current Market
Melbourne Storm -9.5
6.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HStorm to win
$1.37
LINERaiders +9.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 50.5 points
$1.86
MULTIStorm, Raiders +9.5 & Under 50.5
$4.84
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Storm Should Edge This at Home, But the Model Calls It the Closest Contest on the Card.
Some games the model shouts. This one it whispers.
The Storm get the nod at home, and the head to head at $1.37 reflects a side that should find a way. But these two are barely a length apart on the numbers, scoring within a point of each other and conceding at almost the same rate. This is a contest, not a mismatch.
That is where the line matters. The market wants the Storm by better than nine. Our model has them by three, which is a chasm of difference, and it means the Raiders staying inside a converted try and a bit is the value play. A side this evenly matched does not get blown off the park.
The total leans under too. Two honest defences and a model score of 45 points sits below the line on offer, so the under reads alongside the home win and the visitors covering.
The danger is variance. In a game this tight the result can swing on a single moment, and a late Storm try would flatter the margin while a Raiders upset is not far fetched at all.
But the model holds the Storm in front, just, and the Raiders close enough to cover.
Storm vs Raiders Tip
The Storm to win, but only just. The model lands them by 3, well inside the margin the market has set.
Storm vs Raiders Key Stats
POINTS PER GAME
MEL23
CBR22
Barely a point separates these two attacks over the last month.
POINTS CONCEDED PER GAME
MEL26
CBR25
Lower is better here, and the two defences are running almost dead level.
POWER RANKING
MEL50
CBR50
Only three rungs split them on the model’s ladder.
Storm vs Raiders Form Guide
Melbourne Storm
WW
- R13: W 18-4 vs Roosters
- R14: W 32-30 vs Knights
Canberra Raiders
WLL
- R13: W 26-12 vs Cowboys
- R14: L 0-26 vs Roosters
- R15: L 12-15 vs Eels
Final Verdict
The Storm edge it at home in the closest game of the round, with the Raiders staying inside the line and the points kept in check. Back the narrow winner and respect just how tight this one shapes.
Our Bets
H2H Storm to win$1.37
LINE Raiders +9.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 50.5 points$1.86
MULTI Storm, Raiders +9.5 & Under 50.5$4.84
Up Next Tips and Predictions
Key Facts
| Match | Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders |
| Date | Sunday, June 21 |
| Kick-off | 4:05pm AEST |
| Venue | AAMI Park |
| Round | NRL Round 16 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Storm Multi: H2H + Line + Under 50.5 @ $4.84 |
| Predicted Score | Melbourne Storm 24 – Canberra Raiders 21 |
Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders FAQs
Who will win Storm vs Raiders in NRL Round 16?
Our model favours the Storm, predicting a 24-21 win, a 3 point margin that makes this the tightest game of the round.
What is the best bet for Storm vs Raiders?
The Storm to win at $1.37 is the anchor, but with the model margin at just 3 the Raiders to cover the 9.5 line at $1.90 is the value, and the standout is the three leg multi at around $4.84.
What is in the Storm vs Raiders multi?
Storm head to head at $1.37, Raiders plus 9.5 at $1.90 and under 50.5 total points at $1.86, combined for roughly $4.84.
