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Wests Tigers walk into Leichhardt the week after a 0-68 hiding from Penrith, against a Titans side that just rolled the Broncos. The model has the home jumper, but the confidence cap holds the trigger.
Odds correct at time of posting
The model loves Tigers by five at Leichhardt, but the confidence cap is what trips it up. Our top end confidence numbers have a habit of falling over historically, and at 70 per cent this one sits above the line where we stake. So it is a tip, not a bet.
The Wests Tigers are 6-6 and just shipped a 0-68 hiding to Penrith. That is the kind of scoreboard that takes a fortnight to wash out of a squad. So even at home, Leichhardt is not as certain a fortress as the price suggests.
The Titans are 3-9 on the ladder, but they walked into Suncorp last weekend and rolled the Broncos 28-23. That is the kind of road result that turns a trip into a contender for the upset. Gold Coast concede 26.4 a game over the last five, and the Tigers attack at 19.4 a game is one of the lower numbers in the comp.
Add it all up and there is a path the home side wins. There is also a real chance the Titans push it close or steal it. The market has the Tigers at $1.42 which is asking for a comfortable home win. The model agrees but the cap holds the trigger.
If you have to play one, the moneyline on the home side is the call. Do not stake the house.
Tigers by 5 at Leichhardt over a Titans side that just rolled the Broncos.
No real value at the price. If we had to back one, the home jumper at Leichhardt is the call, though a hiding of 68 the week before is not a result a punter swallows lightly.
OUR PICK: Tigers H2H @ $1.42
No real value to be had here. If we had to play one, this is it.
Claim This Tip at Dabble - Offer dabble| Match | Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans |
| Date | Sunday, June 14 |
| Kick-off | 4:05pm AEST |
| Venue | Leichhardt Oval |
| Round | NRL Round 15 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Tigers H2H @ $1.42 |
| Predicted Score | Wests Tigers 25 – Gold Coast Titans 20 |
Our model has the Wests Tigers winning by five at Leichhardt. The Tigers are 6-6 on the ladder and the Titans sit fifteenth at 3-9. The model picks the home side, but the confidence cap means we tip but do not stake.
If you have to play one, the H2H on the Tigers at $1.42 is the call. It is a Recommended bet, not a Best Bet. Confidence sits above the cap where high-confidence picks have under-performed historically, so we track and do not stake.
Confidence at 70 per cent sits above the 69 per cent cap we trust. Above that line, high-confidence picks have a habit of going down, often to roughly the kind of upset where a road side like the Titans walks into Leichhardt off the back of beating the Broncos.