Bulldogs vs Eels Prediction
The Bulldogs and Eels stagger into Accor on a combined…
Storm vs Knights Prediction
Storm are at three and two and the Knights have rocked up in form, but AAMI Park is still AAMI Park. The model has this dead even, and we are reluctantly siding with Newcastle if forced to play.
NRL Round 14 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
MEL
$1.61
Friday, June 5 • 6:00pm
26 : 26
AAMI Park
NEW
$2.33
Newcastle Knights by 0 points
Model Predicted Margin
Newcastle Knights by 0
Current Market
Melbourne Storm -4.5
4.5 pts tighter
Recommended BetHEAD TO HEAD
Knights H2H @ $2.33
No model edge at this price
Better form line and better scoring rate, but no clear price edge against Melbourne at home.
Claim This Tip at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
How to read our tips
Best Bet means the model finds real value at the current market price. This is where we put the units. Recommended Bet means the model has no edge at the price. If we had to play one, this is the call, but we only track profit and ROI on our Best Bets.
Storm vs Knights Prediction: Coin Flip | NRL Round 14
AAMI Park usually means a Storm home banker. Not this time. Melbourne are three and two with a points differential in the red and the Knights have rolled up in better nick than anyone expected.
The books have Storm minus four and a half at home. Our model splits the contest down the middle and tilts a hair toward Newcastle.
The Knights have been putting on serious points through the last month. Their attacking output sits well clear of league average and the Storm have been bleeding defensively at a rate that does not fit the jersey.
The risk is obvious. Melbourne at home is rarely a place visitors leave with points and the Storm tend to find their level when the model writes them off.
No huge value at the price, but if a gun was to our head we are taking the form line. Knights to keep this within a converted try and steal it if Storm sleepwalk early.
Storm vs Knights Tip
Knights to upset the Storm in Melbourne with the better form line and a points machine that has been the surprise of the comp.
Storm vs Knights Key Stats
POINTS PER GAME (LAST 5)
MEL23
NEW32
Nine points of scoring swing. Knights are the points machine of the contest.
POINT DIFFERENTIAL (LAST 5)
MEL-3
NEW3
Form ledger has the visitors on the right side of the line.
RECENT FORM (LAST 5)
MEL50
NEW50
Knights are the marginally better team across the last month.
Storm vs Knights Form Guide
Melbourne Storm
WLW
- R11: W 34-8 vs Eels
- R12: L 20-30 vs Bulldogs
- R13: W 18-4 vs Roosters
Newcastle Knights
WW
- R11: W 36-12 vs Titans
- R13: W 28-22 vs Eels
Final Verdict
No real value to be had at two thirty three when the model is splitting hairs. If we had to play one this round it is the Knights and the form line, eyes open.
OUR PICK: Knights H2H @ $2.33
No real value to be had here. If we had to play one, this is it.
Key Facts
| Match | Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights |
| Date | Friday, June 5 |
| Kick-off | 6:00pm AEST |
| Venue | AAMI Park |
| Round | NRL Round 14 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Knights H2H @ $2.33 |
| Predicted Score | Melbourne Storm 26 – Newcastle Knights 26 |
Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights FAQs
Who will win Storm vs Knights?
Our model splits this contest right down the middle and leans marginally toward the Knights. Newcastle are four from four on the road and scoring at over thirty a game, while Melbourne are three and two with a negative differential.
Why are the Storm favourites if the form line favours the Knights?
Home venue at AAMI Park gets Melbourne the favouritism. Visiting teams rarely take points out of Storm territory, which is why the books have priced the home side a converted try ahead despite the recent slide.
What is the best bet for Storm vs Knights?
There is no standout value bet here. Knights at two thirty three is the call if forced to play, but the model gives this no real edge at the price and treats it as a coin flip.
Verified result – Round 14
We tipped Knights to win – incorrect. Final score: Storm 32 – Knights 30.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Knights H2H @ $2.33 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Storm 26 – Knights 26. Off by 2 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: NRL results page - Nrl tips nrl results.
